RLM

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  • Totolover1409
    SBR MVP
    • 06-14-08
    • 1400

    #1
    RLM
    Last year, I was trying to keep track of reverse line movement throughout the NFL season. I think I'm gonna attempt to do it again and keep a record going. Had a few people also interested last year so hopefully we all can collaborate and get above .500 with RLM.


    BOL
  • DeluxeLiner
    SBR MVP
    • 01-29-08
    • 4132

    #2
    I'll help you out, I had a thread about it last season
    Comment
    • Totolover1409
      SBR MVP
      • 06-14-08
      • 1400

      #3
      Good to see you again Deluxe
      Comment
      • Totolover1409
        SBR MVP
        • 06-14-08
        • 1400

        #4
        Starting to look for some trends early on in the week. The only real one I see comes as a shocker to me.

        10030 bets placed on the Chargers v. Chiefs game with 78% of the public on the Chargers. The line opened up at -5.5 and has moved to, on my book, -4.5. RLM of 1 point. Will continue to watch this line hoping it doesn't move.


        What do you think Deluxe?
        Comment
        • dvb02
          SBR MVP
          • 06-30-09
          • 2941

          #5
          Glad to see you are doing this again Totol! I will be checking in.
          Comment
          • dvb02
            SBR MVP
            • 06-30-09
            • 2941

            #6
            Possible RLM on Oakland/Tennessee
            Comment
            • GGPLAYER
              SBR MVP
              • 03-26-09
              • 2981

              #7
              Can you believe the NFL starts in 2 days? Glad it's back and you are doing this thread again. I'll chime in again from time to time when I see some RLM.
              Comment
              • GGPLAYER
                SBR MVP
                • 03-26-09
                • 2981

                #8
                Source Bet Tracker:

                Indy opened -3 (13,000 bets) 68% action on Indy and line is now -1.5
                Tenn opened -7 (10,000 bets) 72% action on Tenn and line is now -6
                SD opened -5.5 (11,000 best) 76% action on SD and line is now -4.5

                Others that have potenial:
                NE
                Den
                StL
                Comment
                • dodger33
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-14-09
                  • 3962

                  #9
                  Good luck. I will help out when I can. When it is over 63% and moves 1.5 points it seems to be more meaningful.
                  Comment
                  • Totolover1409
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-14-08
                    • 1400

                    #10
                    Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                    Source Bet Tracker:

                    Indy opened -3 (13,000 bets) 68% action on Indy and line is now -1.5
                    Tenn opened -7 (10,000 bets) 72% action on Tenn and line is now -6
                    SD opened -5.5 (11,000 best) 76% action on SD and line is now -4.5

                    Others that have potenial:
                    NE
                    Den
                    StL
                    Originally posted by dodger33
                    Good luck. I will help out when I can. When it is over 63% and moves 1.5 points it seems to be more meaningful.

                    Definitely agree but you very rarely get 1.5 point movements.
                    Comment
                    • dvb02
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-30-09
                      • 2941

                      #11
                      Someone once posted that there was a way to see the over/under line movement on the sportsinsightdotcom website by changing a number in the address line. Does anyone know how to do it?
                      Comment
                      • NYsportsfreak
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 04-06-09
                        • 510

                        #12
                        Originally posted by dodger33
                        Good luck. I will help out when I can. When it is over 63% and moves 1.5 points it seems to be more meaningful.
                        70% and RLM of 1.5 is huge and 60% and RLM of 1 pt is good. I wanna say that the first example hits 75% and the second 60% of the time, but those numbers might be a little off, but there was a good thread last year and those number stick in my head for some reason....but does neone else find it weird that there may be 6 RLM's in week 1? sometimes there arent that many in College.
                        Comment
                        • Totolover1409
                          SBR MVP
                          • 06-14-08
                          • 1400

                          #13
                          I agree. I usually see 1 RLM, if that, in each week of the NFL. So far, I've seen three that GGplayer mentioned. Will wait to see how it ends up on Thurs/Fri
                          Comment
                          • DeluxeLiner
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-29-08
                            • 4132

                            #14
                            I already jumped on KC Chiefs +4.5 for the first week ...not a huge fan of the Raiders because we moved off the 7 and the 7 is such an important number.

                            The 1 point that we are giving up in the SD/KC game is not too important. I also like the play because the public most likely thinks SD will blow out KC, so the RLM makes a lot of sense to me. KC at home plus they are improved, SD is not projected to be as good as they have been in the past.
                            Comment
                            • dodger33
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-14-09
                              • 3962

                              #15
                              Biggest rlm of the week. Under tomorrow night 66% on the over line has moved from 52 to 48.5.
                              Comment
                              • Totolover1409
                                SBR MVP
                                • 06-14-08
                                • 1400

                                #16
                                Originally posted by dodger33
                                Biggest rlm of the week. Under tomorrow night 66% on the over line has moved from 52 to 48.5.
                                I usually stay away from O/U when doing RLMs. BOL to you though.
                                Comment
                                • gryfyn1
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-30-10
                                  • 3285

                                  #17
                                  With the openers being put out by offshore books so early and many of the large consulting firms not actually putting out their official lines until recently is their potential for some RLM red herrings?
                                  Comment
                                  • Vesuvius
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-19-08
                                    • 3886

                                    #18
                                    LOCKS! No, it probably won't matter.
                                    Comment
                                    • GGPLAYER
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-26-09
                                      • 2981

                                      #19
                                      I like Hou and KC. Home dogs and the public is all over Indy and SD.
                                      Comment
                                      • Totolover1409
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 06-14-08
                                        • 1400

                                        #20
                                        I already took KC. Hope you took the under Dodger. Congrats if you did.


                                        Will wait to see if Houston moves
                                        Comment
                                        • dodger33
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 08-14-09
                                          • 3962

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Totolover1409
                                          I already took KC. Hope you took the under Dodger. Congrats if you did. Will wait to see if Houston moves
                                          I did! Thanks. That was almost too easy.
                                          Comment
                                          • louis.ana
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 02-09-09
                                            • 359

                                            #22
                                            RLM, my favorite topic. Found one in NCAAF this saturday
                                            (i know this is a NFL thread, but had to contribute)

                                            Idaho / Nebraska under 53.5
                                            can anyone else confirm this?
                                            Comment
                                            • rfr3sh
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-07-09
                                              • 10229

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by louis.ana
                                              RLM, my favorite topic. Found one in NCAAF this saturday
                                              (i know this is a NFL thread, but had to contribute)

                                              Idaho / Nebraska under 53.5
                                              can anyone else confirm this?
                                              thats not that big of rlm, would not play that one
                                              Comment
                                              • louis.ana
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 02-09-09
                                                • 359

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by rfr3sh
                                                thats not that big of rlm, would not play that one
                                                thanks rfr3sh, I appreciate the feedback
                                                Was wondering what you use as a source to analyze RLM.. sbrlines? sportsinsights? something else..?
                                                and what are your parameters?

                                                this is the graph that I have for that Idaho/Nebraska game:


                                                graph is color coded, gray is under
                                                Comment
                                                • Totolover1409
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-14-08
                                                  • 1400

                                                  #25
                                                  I've used this since last year. Someone else on this forum informed me about this one.


                                                  Comment
                                                  • TiTlist
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 09-06-10
                                                    • 402

                                                    #26
                                                    link broken
                                                    Comment
                                                    • louis.ana
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 02-09-09
                                                      • 359

                                                      #27
                                                      that link works fine here
                                                      Comment
                                                      • DeluxeLiner
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-29-08
                                                        • 4132

                                                        #28
                                                        I use the same thing toto except I get it through a different site called two minute warning
                                                        Comment
                                                        • CaptainPrice
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-29-09
                                                          • 1064

                                                          #29
                                                          very intersted in this
                                                          Comment
                                                          • dvb02
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-30-09
                                                            • 2941

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by DeluxeLiner
                                                            I use the same thing toto except I get it through a different site called two minute warning
                                                            Once you go to that site, where do you go to find it?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • DeluxeLiner
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-29-08
                                                              • 4132

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by dvb02
                                                              Once you go to that site, where do you go to find it?
                                                              Once you are on that site click the "NFL Bet Tracker" which is in blue letters (hyperlink) on the right of the webpage. The "NFL Bet Tracker" is below a red box with yellow lettering that reads "Point Spread Picks" and orange lettering that reads "Barrington Harry"

                                                              The "NFL Bet Tracker" will give you the information for any of the listed sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF etc)

                                                              Let me know if you found it okay or if you need some more directions.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • PlatinumBerg
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-01-10
                                                                • 1058

                                                                #32
                                                                This should be very interesting. I would like to see the stats at the end of the year.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • NostraDanUS
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 12-02-09
                                                                  • 665

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I did.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • dvb02
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 06-30-09
                                                                    • 2941

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by DeluxeLiner
                                                                    Once you are on that site click the "NFL Bet Tracker" which is in blue letters (hyperlink) on the right of the webpage. The "NFL Bet Tracker" is below a red box with yellow lettering that reads "Point Spread Picks" and orange lettering that reads "Barrington Harry" The "NFL Bet Tracker" will give you the information for any of the listed sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF etc) Let me know if you found it okay or if you need some more directions.
                                                                    Thanks, I would never have found it without your help.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JIMBOK
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 09-13-09
                                                                      • 48

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Ill be helping out as well
                                                                      Comment
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