NFL Betting Moves Into Regular Season
The NFL preseason is over and less than a week from now the regular season will kick off with a dandy as the Vikings and Saints clash in a rematch of the NFC Championship. Before we go laying down our hard-earned cash on football betting odds, we need to review what has been learned during exhibition play. That new knowledge starts with the fact that the New York Jets are an overrated football club.
The crapshoot that is the NFL preseason has come to an end, and it’s time to look ahead to the regular season. Finally.
When the powers that be at SBRforum.com asked me to provide a preseason recap, I knew what they really needed was for me to lay out any key trends, information, and hunches I saw throughout August and into Thursday night.
Essentially, what insight into betting the regular season has the preseason provided? What have we learned that’ll help us stay ahead of oddsmakers in the coming months?
The first thing that jumps out is the state of the New York Jets. Public bettors are bullish on the Jets after they scratched their way into the AFC Championship Game last season, but they’re overrated at +650 to get to the Super Bowl.
New York was only 9-7 SU and ATS last season. Yes, they had the best defense in football and made a great postseason run, but the Jets have a lot of holes.
The offense is mediocre, and looking at its performance in the preseason, New York could get worse in that area. Mark Sanchez held down the fort – barely – last season, and hasn’t looked sharp thus far. LaDainian Tomlinson is a shadow of his former self, and Santonio Holmes won’t be available until Week 5.
Darrelle Revis, only the best shutdown corner in the league and the most important player on the team, is holding out. Rex Ryan’s defense centers around Revis’ ability to shut down any receiver one-on-one. Without Revis, it remains to be seen if the Jets can repeat last year’s success.
The AFC is still the AFC. The Patriots aren’t what they used to be, but they’re still the best team on paper in the AFC East. The Steelers won’t be as bad as advertised if Troy Polamalu stays healthy and Roethlisberger get his suspension reduced as expected.
The Ravens are dangerous with Joe Flacco hitting his stride, and the Chargers, for all their playoff disappointments, are a sure thing to win 11-13 games in the AFC West.
There’s also some team out there called the Colts that feature arguably the best quarterback of all-time in Peyton Manning. Indianapolis almost ran the table last season, and was two quarters away from winning its second Super Bowl.
Then, there’s the Bengals, Titans, and Texans, all three of which are capable of making the playoffs. Terrell Owens proved his worth to Cincinnati in the preseason, while bettors should keep an eye on Tennessee as a value play on the NFL betting odds board after it went 8-2 SU to finish 2009.
Nine teams are in the mix in the AFC, and you could argue the Jets are the ninth best of the bunch. Super Bowl contenders? Not unless Revis gets back on the field.
The picture in the NFC is clearer after the preseason. Brett Favre is back in Minnesota, but like the Jets, the Vikings could have a hard time remaining profitable this season.
There’s value in Minnesota at +1000 to win Super Bowl XLV, but Favre is a year older (and it showed in the preseason), and his favorite target, Sidney Rice (hip) is out until midseason. Percy Harvin is always a question mark because of his migraines, and the Vikes are set to play the most challenging schedule in the NFL.
In addition to two games against the Packers, the Saints, Jets, Cowboys, Patriots, and Eagles are also on tap. Only the game against Dallas is at the Metrodome.
The same teams that were in the playoff hunt last season should remain contenders this year. Still, expect the deck chairs to shuffle slightly in the NFC.
The Cowboys are the class of the NFC East, the Eagles have something to prove with Kevin Kolb under center, and the Redskins should improve – although not as much as squares expect – with Donovan McNabb running the show.
The preseason showed us New Orleans is very much over any Super Bowl hangover. The Saints’ offense fired on all cylinders in the preseason, putting up well over 30 points and 400 yards offense per game. Pick your spots with Drew Brees and the Saints, however, as they’ll see plenty of chalk.
Green Bay and Atlanta are in the discussion, as is San Francisco, which should take over from Arizona as the best team in the NFC West.
The NFL preseason is over and less than a week from now the regular season will kick off with a dandy as the Vikings and Saints clash in a rematch of the NFC Championship. Before we go laying down our hard-earned cash on football betting odds, we need to review what has been learned during exhibition play. That new knowledge starts with the fact that the New York Jets are an overrated football club.
The crapshoot that is the NFL preseason has come to an end, and it’s time to look ahead to the regular season. Finally.
When the powers that be at SBRforum.com asked me to provide a preseason recap, I knew what they really needed was for me to lay out any key trends, information, and hunches I saw throughout August and into Thursday night.
Essentially, what insight into betting the regular season has the preseason provided? What have we learned that’ll help us stay ahead of oddsmakers in the coming months?
The first thing that jumps out is the state of the New York Jets. Public bettors are bullish on the Jets after they scratched their way into the AFC Championship Game last season, but they’re overrated at +650 to get to the Super Bowl.
New York was only 9-7 SU and ATS last season. Yes, they had the best defense in football and made a great postseason run, but the Jets have a lot of holes.
The offense is mediocre, and looking at its performance in the preseason, New York could get worse in that area. Mark Sanchez held down the fort – barely – last season, and hasn’t looked sharp thus far. LaDainian Tomlinson is a shadow of his former self, and Santonio Holmes won’t be available until Week 5.
Darrelle Revis, only the best shutdown corner in the league and the most important player on the team, is holding out. Rex Ryan’s defense centers around Revis’ ability to shut down any receiver one-on-one. Without Revis, it remains to be seen if the Jets can repeat last year’s success.
The AFC is still the AFC. The Patriots aren’t what they used to be, but they’re still the best team on paper in the AFC East. The Steelers won’t be as bad as advertised if Troy Polamalu stays healthy and Roethlisberger get his suspension reduced as expected.
The Ravens are dangerous with Joe Flacco hitting his stride, and the Chargers, for all their playoff disappointments, are a sure thing to win 11-13 games in the AFC West.
There’s also some team out there called the Colts that feature arguably the best quarterback of all-time in Peyton Manning. Indianapolis almost ran the table last season, and was two quarters away from winning its second Super Bowl.
Then, there’s the Bengals, Titans, and Texans, all three of which are capable of making the playoffs. Terrell Owens proved his worth to Cincinnati in the preseason, while bettors should keep an eye on Tennessee as a value play on the NFL betting odds board after it went 8-2 SU to finish 2009.
Nine teams are in the mix in the AFC, and you could argue the Jets are the ninth best of the bunch. Super Bowl contenders? Not unless Revis gets back on the field.
The picture in the NFC is clearer after the preseason. Brett Favre is back in Minnesota, but like the Jets, the Vikings could have a hard time remaining profitable this season.
There’s value in Minnesota at +1000 to win Super Bowl XLV, but Favre is a year older (and it showed in the preseason), and his favorite target, Sidney Rice (hip) is out until midseason. Percy Harvin is always a question mark because of his migraines, and the Vikes are set to play the most challenging schedule in the NFL.
In addition to two games against the Packers, the Saints, Jets, Cowboys, Patriots, and Eagles are also on tap. Only the game against Dallas is at the Metrodome.
The same teams that were in the playoff hunt last season should remain contenders this year. Still, expect the deck chairs to shuffle slightly in the NFC.
The Cowboys are the class of the NFC East, the Eagles have something to prove with Kevin Kolb under center, and the Redskins should improve – although not as much as squares expect – with Donovan McNabb running the show.
The preseason showed us New Orleans is very much over any Super Bowl hangover. The Saints’ offense fired on all cylinders in the preseason, putting up well over 30 points and 400 yards offense per game. Pick your spots with Drew Brees and the Saints, however, as they’ll see plenty of chalk.
Green Bay and Atlanta are in the discussion, as is San Francisco, which should take over from Arizona as the best team in the NFC West.
