BetterBizness' CFL Thoughts Week 10+

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  • BetterBizness
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 05-20-06
    • 5737

    #491
    BC @ Cal -9 O/U 55

    BC Seasonal Results (Most recent first)
    Edm 31 @ BC 28 O55
    BC 35 @ Win 47 O55
    Win 14 @ BC 16 U55
    BC 29 @ Cal 10 U55
    Ham 35 @ BC 31 O55
    Tor 16 @ BC 37 U55
    BC 38 @ Mon 17 P55
    Cal 48 @ BC 35 O55
    BC 13 @ Sask 37 U55
    Cal 27 @ BC 22 -U55
    BC 25 @ Edm 28 - U55
    BC 20 @ Tor 24 - U55
    Mon 16 @ BC 12 - U55
    Sask 37 @ BC 18 - P55
    BC 25 @ Edm 10 - U55

    Cal Seasonal Results (Most Recent First)
    Cal 34 @ Sask 26 O55
    Cal 19 @ Mon 46 O55
    Mon 21 @ Cal 46 O55
    BC 29 @ Cal 10 U55
    Cal 37 @ Sask 43 O55
    Cal 36 @ Edm 20 O55
    Edm 5 @ Cal 52 O55
    Cal 48 @ BC 35 O55
    Edm 15 @ Cal 56 O55
    Calgary 27 @ BC 22 U55
    Win 20 @ Cal 23 U55
    Sask 20 @ Cal 40 O55
    Cal 24 @ Tor 27 U55
    Cal 23 @ Ham 22 U55
    Tor 16 @ Cal 30 U55

    One thing I note... The past 7 Games BC has played 3-3-1 on the Total of 55... Yet... When you look at the actual 3 that went over... Hamilton got those 5 turnovers in the 4th...The Winnipeg Game turned into a slugfest with 20 minutes to go... and the Edmonton game basically was only because of overtime ... Despite the facts of 3-3-1, really... if not for these short busts of crazy action, BC would be 0-6-1 on the OVER... The problem is they're playing Calgary, which may let down a little.. or turn up the gas on a beaten up team with a banged up secondary... Not to mention, adding a little anger in from the last time they met and Burris had his worst game of the year...

    QB Lulay looked good last week and is a really efficient passer, but this week IN Calgary he may get a little more taste of reality ... I'm worried about a Calgary Let down, but the good thing is Sask is still on their tail, and a win here would put 1st place to rest, and I think they'll do just that...

    Last game vs the Lions, the Stamps also didn't exactly lose mightily despite the 29-10 score... It was K Paul McCallums SIX field goals that got them most of their points.... Meaning the Calgary Defense bent (Alot) but never really broke... I expect the only way BC covers this game is with some late magic down 15 or 16, but realistically I think Calgary will score, score Early, and Score Often... then possibly take something off the gas... But I'm liking much of this game to be decided in the first half which is reflective of the -5.5 first half vs the -9 for the game... I think "they" may have figured it out as well...

    Thus...

    2 Units Calgary 1H -5.5
    2 Unit Calgary -9
    Comment
    • BetterBizness
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 05-20-06
      • 5737

      #492
      Montreal -2 @ Hamilton O/U 53

      Montreal Season Results (Most recent first)
      Win 19 @ Mon 22 U53
      Cal 19 @ Mon 46 O53
      Mon 21 @ Cal 46 O53
      Mon 44 @ Win 40 O53
      Edm 14 @ Mon 31 U53
      Mon 27 @ Ham 6 U53
      BC 38 @ Mon 17 O53
      Win 17 @ Mon 38 O53
      Mon 22 @ Tor 37 - O53
      Sask 26 @ Mon 30 - O53
      Tor 10 @ Mon 41 - U53
      Ham 14 @ Mon 37 - U53
      Mon 16 @ BC 12 - U53
      Mon 33 @ Edm 23 - O53
      Mon 51 @ Sask 54 - O53

      Hamilton Seasonal Results (Most Recent first)
      Ham 30 @ Tor 3 U53
      Edm 11 @ Ham 36 U53
      Ham 35 @ Edm 37 O53
      Sask 32 @ Ham 25 O53
      Ham 35 @ BC 31 O53
      Mon 27 @ Ham 6 U53
      Tor 13 @ Ham 28 U53
      Ham 16 @ Tor 12 U53
      Ham 39 @ Win 17 - O53
      Win 22 @ Ham 29 - U53
      Ham 24 @ Sask 37 - O53
      Ham 14 @ Mon 37 - U53
      Win 7 @ Ham 28 - U53
      Cal 23 @ Ham 22 - U53
      Ham 29 @ Win 49 - O53

      So far they're hitting Hamilton and driving the line from 2.5 to 2... Among other reasons it's because the public thinks they are a good team... and they are at home... where they have lost 2 of 3, with the only win coming against the lowly Eskimos...

      Last week Hamilton Crushed Toronto... in a week that Corey Boyd got banged up and Cleo Lemon couldn't hit a receiver... The big issue tonight Is the personal from the Als... RB Avon Cobourne is out, linebacker Diamond Ferri and kick returner Tim Maypray ...

      According to Cobourne ""I'm a little banged up and the coach said it's in the best interests of the team just to heal up" ... so is this Trestmen's way of saying they are going to take it easy?

      I hate having to "guess" the attitude of a coach with relation to game plan... Although Montreal has little to play for now but fine tuning... Hamilton has the 1 game lead and the tie breaker in the 2nd place East race... just doesn't seem like alot of motivation in any direction...

      So then I have to look a little bit at the past to paint a picture... Montreal was 6 games ahead of Hamilton and won 15 games... In the second half of their season, down the stretch they were 8-1, with alot of blowouts...

      Then some Head to head Stuff.... Montreal is on a SIX GAME WINNING STREAK vs the Tabbies spanning 3 seasons... In that winning streak just ONE game has been close and that was late last year when Montreal won 41-38 ... This year... 2 blowouts, 27-6, and 37-14 ... Last year... 41-38, 42-8, 21-8 ... and the year before that, 42-11, 38-44, and 40-33...

      Add to that... Montreal has won JUST 14 of 15 vs Hamilton in the past 5 years...

      Montreal is USED to being in a position of dominance... Guys out doesn't mean much to them... They like to be in top form, selectively resting players, but like the Patriots, keeping the foot on the pedal...

      As much as Hamilton seems to be a likely candidate for an upset ... I think this game has BLOWOUT all over it...

      as such... I really want to stay away from the Total of 53, even though I'm really thinking it will be under... these 2 teams can historically play 27-6, or 41-38... So I will let it go for now.. But I can't pass up the gift from the Books of 2 points... I know they want to trap us, but comon man... We have to take what they are giving us...

      3 Units Montreal -2
      Comment
      • BetterBizness
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 05-20-06
        • 5737

        #493
        Originally posted by Masu485
        took Hamilton +2.

        many reasons to take hamilton, but even w/ all the logic, plays still lose.
        Sorry Masu... Have to cheer against you tonight... At least one of us will win at the end of the day...
        Comment
        • Masu485
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 08-14-08
          • 7700

          #494
          i'm from MTL too so this is hard for me. bottom line for me is that i only see MTL winning in a blowout, or losing outright, BUT i have them blowing out hamilton only about 25% of the time.

          i'm hoping ALs won't leave Calvillo or other starters in the entire game (they did have a QB injury scare earlier in the season).

          im worried though because i've seen these situations so many times where a team has clinched and another team needs the win and still gets blown out.
          Comment
          • jetfalcon
            SBR High Roller
            • 04-02-10
            • 118

            #495
            How many units are max bet for you Better?
            Comment
            • Dharmonize
              SBR MVP
              • 10-10-10
              • 1991

              #496
              Although this might be a typical trap game, I can´t resist Montreal ML. Just wondering for how much to play it? 2-3 units might be too little if it´s a winner. But if I play it for more and it eventually turns out to be the trap, it will take away all of my today´s winnings. Decisions decisions...
              Comment
              • BetterBizness
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 05-20-06
                • 5737

                #497
                now Mon -2 is +111 ... well... trap me then...

                Add 1 more unit -2 (+111)...
                Comment
                • BetterBizness
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 05-20-06
                  • 5737

                  #498
                  I am completely on the wrong side of the Steam, now -1.5... well... what can I do...
                  Comment
                  • BetterBizness
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 05-20-06
                    • 5737

                    #499
                    Originally posted by jetfalcon
                    How many units are max bet for you Better?
                    I've made plays up to 10x jet... most plays are 1-3 Units...
                    Comment
                    • xraygord
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-18-09
                      • 2599

                      #500
                      Lets go Montreal!
                      Comment
                      • BetterBizness
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 05-20-06
                        • 5737

                        #501
                        wow... so rigged... 1st down from the 11 to a 100 yard TD for Hamilton...ok sure...
                        Comment
                        • xraygord
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-18-09
                          • 2599

                          #502
                          Nothing Calvillo can't recover from. They just have to stop the turnovers.
                          Comment
                          • BetterBizness
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 05-20-06
                            • 5737

                            #503
                            wow... AC is nothing short of the most amazing QB in the CFL since the Flute...
                            Comment
                            • BetterBizness
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 05-20-06
                              • 5737

                              #504
                              FFS... this isn't good...

                              1st and goal.. tipped.. picked...

                              well.. at least he didn't return it 110 yards...
                              Comment
                              • BetterBizness
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 05-20-06
                                • 5737

                                #505
                                WHen was the last time Montreal had the ball 1st and goal within the 11 twice in 2 possessions and come up -7 points...
                                Comment
                                • SwisherSweet420
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 01-18-10
                                  • 922

                                  #506
                                  down 17. I say we cut our losses on the next one
                                  sbr
                                  Comment
                                  • BetterBizness
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 05-20-06
                                    • 5737

                                    #507
                                    yup... down 21 in about 5 seconds... may make small 2nd half wager...

                                    Facts are facts... there is no reason this game should be what it is... alas..
                                    Comment
                                    • BetterBizness
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 05-20-06
                                      • 5737

                                      #508
                                      ok.. blocked the kick.. oddly enough that maybe a spark..
                                      Comment
                                      • BetterBizness
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 05-20-06
                                        • 5737

                                        #509
                                        Hamilton doing it again with smoke and mirrors as far as I'm concerned... They are NOT a good team... they just occasionally play good... BIG difference....
                                        Comment
                                        • BetterBizness
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 05-20-06
                                          • 5737

                                          #510
                                          Line is moving towards BC in the first half... down to -5 Calgary...
                                          Comment
                                          • BetterBizness
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 05-20-06
                                            • 5737

                                            #511
                                            1 Unit Montreal 2H -3 (-115)
                                            0.5 Units 2nd Half Over 26
                                            Comment
                                            • SwisherSweet420
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 01-18-10
                                              • 922

                                              #512
                                              leaning on montreal 2nd half?
                                              sbr
                                              Comment
                                              • djpremier36
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-11-08
                                                • 3479

                                                #513
                                                Really like B.C. +9 tonight for 2 units.

                                                GL
                                                Comment
                                                • Soxsfan9
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-30-08
                                                  • 3705

                                                  #514
                                                  anyone like MTL -3.5 2H??
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Soxsfan9
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-30-08
                                                    • 3705

                                                    #515
                                                    I see you do betterbiz....lets get this!!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Dharmonize
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-10-10
                                                      • 1991

                                                      #516
                                                      Wtf Montreal??!! Looks exactly like Toronto a week ago At least I only played it for 2 units (still my strongest bet today). Being scared sometimes saves money As much as I like heavy dogs + points, I don´t feel comfortable betting BC this year. I like the over, though. Any thoughts on the total of the second game?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BetterBizness
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 05-20-06
                                                        • 5737

                                                        #517
                                                        Hamilton thinks they are the Eskimos of the 80's... Doesn't help how bad Montreal looks....
                                                        Comment
                                                        • BetterBizness
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 05-20-06
                                                          • 5737

                                                          #518
                                                          Originally posted by Dharmonize
                                                          Wtf Montreal??!! Looks exactly like Toronto a week ago At least I only played it for 2 units (still my strongest bet today). Being scared sometimes saves money As much as I like heavy dogs + points, I don´t feel comfortable betting BC this year. I like the over, though. Any thoughts on the total of the second game?
                                                          My lean is on the under, but I think this could be a blowout Calgary where the number ends up in the 50's and you're just playing with fire with garbage backdoor plays...

                                                          I think the strongest play is Calgary first half..

                                                          and I would say the under 28 would also be a play in the first half as well...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Soxsfan9
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-30-08
                                                            • 3705

                                                            #519
                                                            Well it looks like Montreal has packed it in for tonight!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BetterBizness
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 05-20-06
                                                              • 5737

                                                              #520
                                                              This game is so painful... but for being on the wrong side (notice I"m not saying making the wrong call), I'm going to endure it...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BetterBizness
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 05-20-06
                                                                • 5737

                                                                #521
                                                                Originally posted by Soxsfan9
                                                                Well it looks like Montreal has packed it in for tonight!
                                                                As long as Calvillo is in... they are not done...
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BetterBizness
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 05-20-06
                                                                  • 5737

                                                                  #522
                                                                  er... he's out now... goodnight MOntreal...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Dharmonize
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 10-10-10
                                                                    • 1991

                                                                    #523
                                                                    Montreal really couldn´t care less Thanx for the first half ideas on the Calgary game, BB! I´m just not sure if my book offers it. Gonna check it out. Still sparkle of hope that when I´m back, Montreal will have completed a comeback of a century
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • BetterBizness
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 05-20-06
                                                                      • 5737

                                                                      #524
                                                                      Please end this game... but get some points first ...
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • BetterBizness
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 05-20-06
                                                                        • 5737

                                                                        #525
                                                                        All the late steam looks to be on BC right now... Calgary -9 (+109)
                                                                        Comment
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