Kings Corner (Keep Football Simple Stupid)

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  • iifold
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-25-10
    • 11111

    #1
    Kings Corner (Keep Football Simple Stupid)
    It never goes as planned, I promise you.. So put down the Fantasy football magazine's and close the nfl.com window. The worst thing you can do is "study" for the upcoming football season. You fukks are bored of baseball and now you look to football to revive your "inner gambler". The problem with over analysing football this early is you might make up your mind ("Titans cant stop the pass" or "Texans are over-rated") and not be able to adjust your thinking quick enough during the season. The only chance you have against the books is to adjust quicker than they do. They have the benefit of square action on the other side so they can afford to be a little late to adjust at times, you dont. If you have a clear mind coming in, you can watch the games for what they are the first couple weeks and make up your own mind, with no outside distractions you'll be suprised just how simple football really is at the end of the day.

    Simplifying Football

    Do yourself a favor, next time you watch a football game, try your hardest to ignore the skill guys. Focus as much as you can (depending on camera angles) on the trenches. Look for the cohesivness and strength of the offensive and defensive lines of each team. Take notes on how each team rushes/protects the passer, stops the run, keeps containment..Look for pure athletic dominance, but also look to see if the line is working as a unit. This will seem weird at first but you will actually get a feel for it and see a dramatic difference when you compare good lines to bad ones.

    You have to pay attention to scheme as well, some teams will get continuous pressure on the QB and not take full advantage of it. (Cowboys last year, Youd think with their great defensive line they would get up in receivers faces and create turnovers and havoc on defense, sometimes their D-line and secondary seemed to be on different pages.) You will notice alot of teams playing a "bend but dont break" style of pass defense. This usually happens when they cant get pressure up front. The Raiders had to do this alot a couple years back (Even though they had a top 3 cornerback) and it would baffle me. You either have the guys in the trenches or you dont, it took me a while to realize this.

    When you start to break down football from the trenches outward, you will start to understand the game more. You will be so suprised how fast you will be able to spot a good pass defense from a bad one, a team that "cant" run the ball from a team that can at will. Once you start to realize what teams can and cant do, you will be able to predict the outcome of certain matchups. (barring stupid ass fukkin fumbles ) A bad team that relys on running the ball and play action pass will sometimes keep the game suprising close against a good team known for having a great pass rush on defense. Teams with little to no pass rush sometimes do suprisingly well against good running teams by default. These are rather vague examples but Im just trying to make you think more about the trenches and schemes instead of stats and superstars.

    So trust the King when I promise you that there isnt much difference between Chad Ochocinco and Jerry Rice.. There isnt much difference between Tom Brady and Matt Schaub.. There isnt much difference between Emmitt Smith and Frank Gore.. What was and is different about these guys was there offensive lines and schemes.. It makes that much of a difference.. dont believe me? just watch.


    KING
  • Sunde91
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-26-09
    • 8325

    #2
    KING, thanks..
    Comment
    • Brock Landers
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 06-30-08
      • 45359

      #3
      so just bet dogs king....thats what you are trying to say
      Comment
      • hugh_morris
        SBR MVP
        • 11-17-09
        • 2039

        #4
        crown the king for a solid analysis...keep spreading the good word...
        Comment
        • G's pks
          Restricted User
          • 01-01-09
          • 22251

          #5
          King is actually good at football...everytime we had the same college team I noticed it won...
          Comment
          • THE PROFIT
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-27-09
            • 17701

            #6
            that was actually a good writeup! Who the fuk wrote that for you?
            Comment
            • iifold
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 04-25-10
              • 11111

              #7
              Originally posted by THE PROFIT
              that was actually a good writeup! Who the fuk wrote that for you?
              I only give SBRJohn 23%..

              He deserves that for the points program and contests...

              You guys will probably never witness 100% of the King..
              Comment
              • THE PROFIT
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-27-09
                • 17701

                #8
                Originally posted by iifold
                I only give SBRJohn 23%..

                He deserves that for the points program and contests...

                You guys will probably never witness 100% of the King..


                We're all sick of 23% so we sure hope not!
                Comment
                • minet123
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-17-07
                  • 10280

                  #9
                  Where The F was this insight when you went all in on the brewers or did a 5 team chalk parlay
                  If you didn't want to do it anymore because it was just me,Shari and The Panama Kid ,why couldn't you be a "grown up" and just tell us
                  Comment
                  • MF'inCriminal
                    Restricted User
                    • 08-10-10
                    • 13

                    #10
                    the king lives
                    Comment
                    • KKoz9
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-07-06
                      • 1982

                      #11
                      OMFG, another season of this guy's nonsense AND Brett Favre waffling tour '10?

                      I'm gonna slit my fu$@ing wrists NOW!
                      Comment
                      • BatemanPatrickl
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 06-21-07
                        • 18772

                        #12
                        Originally posted by THE PROFIT
                        We're all sick of 23% so we sure hope not!
                        Comment
                        • iifold
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 04-25-10
                          • 11111

                          #13
                          Guys are making up their minds already..

                          "Pats have no D" (Belichek isnt going to show his cards)

                          "Arizona cant move the ball" (Anderson will end up the starter and the Cards will surprise on offense)

                          You guys are falling right into the bookies trap..

                          Do not put too much into these pre season games...
                          Comment
                          • Joe_Shabadoo
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 09-17-09
                            • 607

                            #14
                            Yes, line-play is of paramount importance. I think those that are really good at this year-in & year-out have had this epiphany a while ago.
                            Comment
                            • shari91
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 02-23-10
                              • 32661

                              #15
                              Originally posted by minet123
                              Where The F was this insight when you went all in on the brewers or did a 5 team chalk parlay If you didn't want to do it anymore because it was just me,Shari and The Panama Kid ,why couldn't you be a "grown up" and just tell us


                              And you ditched me as a study buddy in the Think Tank.

                              Monarchs blow.
                              Comment
                              • pat venditto
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 05-07-07
                                • 14347

                                #16
                                shari ant aussie rules/rugby plays upcoming?
                                Comment
                                • xxxvince
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-17-07
                                  • 2567

                                  #17
                                  thanks for sharing good stuff
                                  Comment
                                  • shari91
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 02-23-10
                                    • 32661

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by pat venditto
                                    shari ant aussie rules/rugby plays upcoming?
                                    I put a bit on Carlton +8.5 -110. Not a big play though.
                                    Comment
                                    • pat venditto
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 05-07-07
                                      • 14347

                                      #19
                                      Cool thanks I want to bet something I may tail ya.
                                      Comment
                                      • iifold
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 04-25-10
                                        • 11111

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by shari91
                                        I put a bit on Carlton +8.5 -110. Not a big play though.
                                        when does this go off??
                                        Comment
                                        • bipolar
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 04-25-10
                                          • 252

                                          #21
                                          your absolutely right King, games are won and lost in the trenches... all QBs for example at the NFL starting level at least competent.... focusing on the lines will be of great benefit for cappers
                                          Comment
                                          • Ace_of_Spades
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 10-14-09
                                            • 13518

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by shari91
                                            I put a bit on Carlton +8.5 -110. Not a big play though.
                                            Not a bad play.
                                            Comment
                                            • iifold
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 04-25-10
                                              • 11111

                                              #23
                                              Tailing the study buddy, dont fukk me here..
                                              Comment
                                              • Jonah
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-21-09
                                                • 4042

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by iifold
                                                Guys are making up their minds already..

                                                "Pats have no D" (Belichek isnt going to show his cards)

                                                "Arizona cant move the ball" (Anderson will end up the starter and the Cards will surprise on offense)

                                                You guys are falling right into the bookies trap..

                                                Do not put too much into these pre season games...
                                                This part is solid...Anderson sucks tho. He might do well for a while, but he aint a long term solution.
                                                Comment
                                                • MrTwiz
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 01-26-10
                                                  • 913

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by shari91


                                                  And you ditched me as a study buddy in the Think Tank.

                                                  Monarchs blow.
                                                  Only reason I liked the monarchs was cause they shoot free throws well. Cant see them coming out of this alive though. Only 2.5 spread for atl scares me also, figure they can cover that easy
                                                  God hates cowards
                                                  Comment
                                                  • shari91
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 02-23-10
                                                    • 32661

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by iifold
                                                    when does this go off??
                                                    2 1/2 hrs
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MrTwiz
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 01-26-10
                                                      • 913

                                                      #27
                                                      Um hate to ask this and sound newb but.....Who is carlton?
                                                      God hates cowards
                                                      Comment
                                                      • shari91
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 02-23-10
                                                        • 32661

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by MrTwiz
                                                        Um hate to ask this and sound newb but.....Who is carlton?
                                                        A team in the Aussie Football League. Hopefully a winning one in a few hours.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • MrTwiz
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 01-26-10
                                                          • 913

                                                          #29
                                                          Im down, hopefully I wake up a winner, thx shar
                                                          God hates cowards
                                                          Comment
                                                          • MrTwiz
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 01-26-10
                                                            • 913

                                                            #30
                                                            Dang it, my local doesnt offer aussie lines BOL though
                                                            God hates cowards
                                                            Comment
                                                            • shari91
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 02-23-10
                                                              • 32661

                                                              #31
                                                              Final score: Freo 93 - Carlton 87

                                                              Comment
                                                              • Superman455
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 09-23-08
                                                                • 366

                                                                #32
                                                                thanks for the write up. Gl this year with your wagers
                                                                Comment
                                                                • solobass
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-15-09
                                                                  • 1277

                                                                  #33
                                                                  King I i hope you come to the bash. Also it is all about style. Everyone has their own capping style. I grade everything out and quantify everything in therms of numbers and formulas. That takes the names out of it for me and I can then objectively look at the data. Also being in Vegas and not watching espn has helped a ton for me over the years because I have a much more balanced view of the leagues as a whole. For example people name 10 NFL teams right now. I will wait



                                                                  Ok if you live on the east coast how many of those were east coast or timezone teams? Same with west coasters. Get rid of your inherent biases and you will be much more balanced in your wagering.
                                                                  Comment
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