- Baltimore Ravens -10.5 (-109 @ Pinnacle)
The Ravens' offense has struggled so far this season, but returning home against a very mediocre Browns team is just what they need. In the first two games the Ravens have played two of the better defense in the league, the Jets and the Bengals. The Browns' defense is nowhere near this level, and this week on the road at Baltimore will really be their first challenge of the season. I think we're going to see a big boost in the Ravens' offensive numbers this week since they're returning home rather than playing on the road. Last season, the Ravens scored about 10 points per game more at home, and the defense allowed about 9 points per game less. I feel like this is a setup for the Ravens to finally break out and put 3+ touchdowns on the board, scoring anywhere from 24-34 points. As for their defense, it's been stifling so far as their banged up secondary has yet to really be exposed. They've been able to generate a good amount of pressure on the QB, and their run defense remains the strongest part of the unit. The Browns are clearly a run first team with their lack of threats in the passing game on offense, and their inability to run against the Ravens on Sunday will force them to start throwing more than they like. Whether it's Delhomme or Wallace at QB for them, this is not a threatening passing game and they will struggle scoring points all afternoon. The ceiling for this Browns offense on Sunday is probably about 13 points, with that leaving only 24 required of the Ravens I feel like we should have an easy win here. I expect a 27-10 victory for the Ravens.
- Steelers/Bucs UNDER 33.5 (-110 @ Pinnacle)
While this is one of the lower totals I've seen in a while, it's set this low with good reason. The Steelers enter their third game of the season once again without Ben Roethlisberger, and with both Leftwich and Dixon hurt they turn to their final QB Charlie Batch. The Pittsburgh passing game has been abysmal this season no matter who's at QB, and Batch certainly brings nothing new to the table that will help this offense score points. Facing a Bucs defense that was one of the worst in the league at stopping the run in 2009, the Steelers will likely look to attack on the ground for the majority of the game and ask as little of Batch as possible. While this strategy will certainly keep the clock moving, I don't expect it to work out great for them. The Bucs defense has shown big signs of improvement this season, as they held a powerful Carolina rushing attack under 4 yards per carry last week. With the Pittsburgh offensive line still in a state of flux, I think the Steelers will struggle keeping drives alive and wind up being forced to punt more times than not. As for their defense - it looks like it's back in a big way. They've shut down two very powerful offenses so far this season in the Titans and Falcons, and the Bucs look to be a step in the easier direction for them. Tampa Bay has also shown improvement on the offensive side of the ball, with Freeman handling himself much better thus far this season. However, the big plays they've been relying on from WR Mike Williams and TE Kellen Winslow won't be as readily available against this Pittsburgh defense (6th in yards per pass attempt allowed), and their rushing game which has been 9th worst in the NFL so far will be smothered by Pittsburgh's 4th ranked rushing defense. I don't see how either team is going to be able to generate points in this contest, and we should have ourselves a very low scoring game, with the winner taking it 13-10.
- Jaguars/Eagles OVER 44.5 (-113 @ Pinnacle)
The big storyline in this game is the Eagles' decision to make Michael Vick their starter for the rest of the season. While it's certainly a controversial decision, I consider it to be the right one. Vick brings so much more to the table than Kolb does, especially his mobility as the Eagles' offensive line is very weak this year. Vick's scampering ability allows the Eagles to keep drives alive even when their receivers can't get open, and he's shown very good decision making thus-far as he hasn't been turning the ball over. The Eagles face a Jacksonville pass defense this week that looks to be one of the worst in the league yet again. They've been getting minimal pressure on opposing QBs, and are allowing a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt. We should see Vick perform well once again this week, as when he's not finding the big plays down the field he's creating them with his legs. For the Jaguars, while last week's offensive showing was disappointing there were some positives to be taken from it. Jacksonville had absolutely no problem moving the ball on the San Diego defense, their biggest issue was that they turned the ball over six times. I expect the Jaguars to do a much better job of taking care of the ball in this game, and with the Eagles keying in on stopping Maurice Jones-Drew I think that Garrard can lead the offense well enough to give the Jaguars a shot at stealing this game. I think these teams put on an offensive show and the over comes through, with whoever has the ball last possibly winning the game.
- Chiefs/49ers UNDER 37 (-101 @ Pinnacle)
Let's start with the Chiefs' offense here. KC has been very fortunate to get off to a 2-0 start so far this season because their passing game has been borderline non-existent. Cassel has thrown for an abysmal 4.5 yards per pass attempt, and as a result of his shotty passing the Chiefs have converted only 23.1% of 3rd downs, third worst in the NFL. The strength of this KC team has been running the ball, unfortunately for the Chiefs they're matched up against the run stopping 49ers. The biggest threat in the Chiefs' offense is clearly Jamaal Charles, yet for some reason Thomas Jones continues to get more carries than him and all indications are that this pattern will continue. The Chiefs will likely have trouble establishing the run in this contest, and if forced to turn to Cassel and the passing game things will get no better. When examining the 49ers offense, it's a bit tougher to figure out what to make of them. While they struggled on the road in Week 1 against the Seahawks, they came home Monday night and put forth a much better offensive effort against the Saints, moving the ball with ease. Ultimately, a few dumb mistakes and unlucky breaks kept them from winning that game, and cost them points on the scoreboard. In Seattle, there was talk that in that game the 49ers had trouble getting their plays in on time and struggled with the noise. At Arrowhead this week, that's again a similar area of concern as it's a very tough stadium to play in. I think we're going to see something similar out of the 49ers this week as they struggle to get the run going and then find themselves in more 3rd and long situations like they were in Week 1. Given that the 49ers are fifth worst in the league with a 25% conversion ratio on 3rd downs, I think we'll also see quite a few drives out of them that fizzle out without putting points on the scoreboard. I think both offenses will struggle in this one, with the winner coming out with a 17-13 win.
I've probably eliminated enough people so far with my shotty survivor picks, but for anyone still alive and still interested I think the Ravens are a great play and so are the Patriots. That's all for this week, good luck to everyone!
