Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)

[Tien]

thanks for the play kroy

[Totolover1409]

Definitely doubted the niners and your pick. nice job dude.

F*** the niners. Always choke. So frustrating.

[kroyrunner89]

thanks for the play kroy

No problem, glad it cashed for us!

Definitely doubted the niners and your pick. nice job dude. F*** the niners. Always choke. So frustrating.

That really was a painful one to watch, they should have won that game outright. I still think they'll win their division though and by the end of the season hopefully they'll have learned to cut these mistakes out

[Tr4nc3]

thanks kroy. great week buddy.

[daneault23]

Well that just about sums up my week right there. I took the Saints in that one, cuz I was following Ace's 99 system as well as you and SP in the NFL(even though he took Niners, but I saw Ace's plays first). Of course I went against you on the Niners and the Jets cuz Ace Ace was on Pats and Saints and they both lose. From now on, I think I'm just follow you and SP and play Ace's plays that are his investment ones only.... Sigh.. What a bad week for me...I know it's not your fault cuz you went 4-1 and great job for that In hindsight, I should have known Jets wouldn't start 0-2 and Niners would cover after their embarassment last week. Oh well, on to next week.

[peeteer]

nice week, kroy.

[givemeone]

Great week going 4-1,not many even had a .500 record this weekend,but you were lights out.Continued success...

[JosephPavs]

Good week this next card looks promising

[Dan]

Same record as me.



Let me know when you decide on the contest details.

It's getting really annoying seeing your noob self in all of these threads taunting respectable forum members. We get people like you all the time. Just go away.

[hockeyhy]

I feel bad for the niners.

[SportsPicks3434]

BOL this week Kroy!

[kroyrunner89]

thanks kroy. great week buddy.

nice week, kroy.

Great week going 4-1,not many even had a .500 record this weekend,but you were lights out.Continued success...

Good week this next card looks promising

BOL this week Kroy!

Thanks guys, BOL to you all going forward!

[kroyrunner89]

Well that just about sums up my week right there. I took the Saints in that one, cuz I was following Ace's 99 system as well as you and SP in the NFL(even though he took Niners, but I saw Ace's plays first). Of course I went against you on the Niners and the Jets cuz Ace Ace was on Pats and Saints and they both lose. From now on, I think I'm just follow you and SP and play Ace's plays that are his investment ones only.... Sigh.. What a bad week for me...I know it's not your fault cuz you went 4-1 and great job for that In hindsight, I should have known Jets wouldn't start 0-2 and Niners would cover after their embarassment last week. Oh well, on to next week.

Sorry the week didn't turn out well for you, that's the difficulty of there being so many quality cappers out there, sometimes we're on different sides and you don't know who to listen to! Good luck going forward, I'm sure you'll be ahead by the end of the season!

[LarryF]

Nice weekend in the NFL Kroy, looking forward to week 3 in the NFL!

[815Sox]

Thanks Koy, I was thinking Jets and SF and your reasoning helped me pull the trigger

[n1co35]

nice bounce back this week kroy.
hope u keep it up.

[Scully]

Congrats on a fine week of picking Kroy. Keep 'em coming.

[bombCanada]

Line for next week looks like: x-10-10-10-10-20-20-21

OK, so I'm a little late with all this, but here's how the weekend went, based upon the above line from last week, which produces a wager amount of $31.00 based upon adding the two outside numbers together.

Minn/Mia u39.5 31.00 to win 32.24
Cowboys -7 32.24 to win 31.00
Green Bay -13 31.31 to win 31.00
NYJ +3 32.86 to win 31.00
SF +5.5 31.00 to win 31.62

Results:
Minn/Mia +32.24
Cowboys -32.24
Green Bay +31.00
NYJ +31.00
SF +31.62

Which gives a total for the week of +93.62, or +52.22 so far on a 5-4 record, as compared to +12.00 on $20 flat bets at -110.

To update the lab line for next week, I'll discard the offsetting Minn/Mia and Cowboys amounts, and then update like zo:

subtract Green Bay: x-x-10-10-10-20-20-x (I remove the outermost 10 and 21 for the 31 win)
subtract NYJ: x-x-x-9-10-20-x-x (I remove the outermost 10 and 20, and get to 31 by dropping 1 from the leading 10)
subtract SF: x-x-x-8-x-x-x-x (I remove the 10, the 20, and subtract 1 from the 9)

This is close enough to complete for this line that I'll start next week with a new line of 10-10-10-10-10-10.

I hope this explains how Labouchere lines are an alternative to flat betting which helps to recover from losses more quickly without any headscratching about the right thing to do, and keeps the bet sizes more manageable than outright chasing. Now that I'm 2.5 $20 units ahead after week 2, I'll drop back to my base bet per the line. After we clear this line a second time, I'll increase the base bet.

Good work kroy, thanks for the great plays. Best luck in week 3.

[Julian9]

I just posted this in both of SportsPicks threads so I might as well here too because you two are my dudes. Alright everyone listen.. I am not telling you what to do, BUT I really think that everyone who comes in here for plays and advice should start giving points. I am not saying that no one is giving him anything because I do see it some people, but I think more of you should show your appreciation to his hard work and the time he spends typing up plays for us FOR FREE! If you log into SBR 7 times a week you will get a minimum of 14 pts so everyone could at least give him 5 points for his plays, that is less than half of your points for just logging in each week. If you use your points to bet on games and you win why not give him maybe 5% of what you won? After all they are his plays and we are lucky for him to share. I mean no disrespect to anyone and I will not argue or fight with anyone about this post because I want to keep this thread positive but lets show him we are grateful for his plays! now lets get that money!!

[cowboyfan08]

Glad to see you bounce back frombad week-1.now, lets get hot for couple of weeks and make some cabbage!

[ssk13809]

Good Luck this week Kroy. You're going to need it.

[dog24]

You should probably update your 4-1 recommendation record SSK.

[Firefox14]

[COLOR=#000000 ! important]Kroyrunner, can you help me out?

Looking at numerous stats can be overwhelming at times! I have a couple of questions.

1. Where do you primarily attain your sports data from (websources, etc)?
2. How much time are you putting into this per week?

If you could answer, that would be great. Thanks.[/COLOR]

[samdapatriotsfan]

I just posted this in both of SportsPicks threads so I might as well here too because you two are my dudes. Alright everyone listen.. I am not telling you what to do, BUT I really think that everyone who comes in here for plays and advice should start giving points. I am not saying that no one is giving him anything because I do see it some people, but I think more of you should show your appreciation to his hard work and the time he spends typing up plays for us FOR FREE! If you log into SBR 7 times a week you will get a minimum of 14 pts so everyone could at least give him 5 points for his plays, that is less than half of your points for just logging in each week. If you use your points to bet on games and you win why not give him maybe 5% of what you won? After all they are his plays and we are lucky for him to share. I mean no disrespect to anyone and I will not argue or fight with anyone about this post because I want to keep this thread positive but lets show him we are grateful for his plays! now lets get that money!!

[simonk83]

Let's gettem

[kroyrunner89]

nice bounce back this week kroy. hope u keep it up.

Congrats on a fine week of picking Kroy. Keep 'em coming.

Glad to see you bounce back frombad week-1.now, lets get hot for couple of weeks and make some cabbage!

Good Luck this week Kroy. You're going to need it.

Let's gettem

Thanks guys! (yes even you ssk) Looking forward to Week 3 getting here, still working on my card but it's getting there! Likely won't post plays with writeups til Saturday as Friday is looking quite busy for me, but one way or another we should have some winners this week!

[kroyrunner89]

OK, so I'm a little late with all this, but here's how the weekend went, based upon the above line from last week, which produces a wager amount of $31.00 based upon adding the two outside numbers together. Minn/Mia u39.5 31.00 to win 32.24 Cowboys -7 32.24 to win 31.00 Green Bay -13 31.31 to win 31.00 NYJ +3 32.86 to win 31.00 SF +5.5 31.00 to win 31.62 Results: Minn/Mia +32.24 Cowboys -32.24 Green Bay +31.00 NYJ +31.00 SF +31.62 Which gives a total for the week of +93.62, or +52.22 so far on a 5-4 record, as compared to +12.00 on $20 flat bets at -110. To update the lab line for next week, I'll discard the offsetting Minn/Mia and Cowboys amounts, and then update like zo: subtract Green Bay: x-x-10-10-10-20-20-x (I remove the outermost 10 and 21 for the 31 win) subtract NYJ: x-x-x-9-10-20-x-x (I remove the outermost 10 and 20, and get to 31 by dropping 1 from the leading 10) subtract SF: x-x-x-8-x-x-x-x (I remove the 10, the 20, and subtract 1 from the 9) This is close enough to complete for this line that I'll start next week with a new line of 10-10-10-10-10-10. I hope this explains how Labouchere lines are an alternative to flat betting which helps to recover from losses more quickly without any headscratching about the right thing to do, and keeps the bet sizes more manageable than outright chasing. Now that I'm 2.5 $20 units ahead after week 2, I'll drop back to my base bet per the line. After we clear this line a second time, I'll increase the base bet. Good work kroy, thanks for the great plays. Best luck in week 3.

Thanks for explaining this method to those unfamiliar with it! My only question is had Week 2 been a disaster 1-4 week or something like that instead what would that have done to your bankroll? Maybe I need to go back and reread some of your initial assumptions for this! Best of luck going forward!

I just posted this in both of SportsPicks threads so I might as well here too because you two are my dudes. Alright everyone listen.. I am not telling you what to do, BUT I really think that everyone who comes in here for plays and advice should start giving points. I am not saying that no one is giving him anything because I do see it some people, but I think more of you should show your appreciation to his hard work and the time he spends typing up plays for us FOR FREE! If you log into SBR 7 times a week you will get a minimum of 14 pts so everyone could at least give him 5 points for his plays, that is less than half of your points for just logging in each week. If you use your points to bet on games and you win why not give him maybe 5% of what you won? After all they are his plays and we are lucky for him to share. I mean no disrespect to anyone and I will not argue or fight with anyone about this post because I want to keep this thread positive but lets show him we are grateful for his plays! now lets get that money!!

While I by no means require anyone to donate points to me, I certainly appreciate the thought! Thanks Julian, you seem like a very classy guy

[kroyrunner89]

[COLOR=#000000 ! important]Kroyrunner, can you help me out? Looking at numerous stats can be overwhelming at times! I have a couple of questions. 1. Where do you primarily attain your sports data from (websources, etc)? 2. How much time are you putting into this per week? If you could answer, that would be great. Thanks.[/COLOR]

1. Alright here's the method I've found that's most helpful for me keeping track of all this stuff. I use excel for a lot of stuff that I do, whether it be my system or tracking stats. For stat tracking, I start by taking everything from Cbssports.com. I use this site because it has a feature where when you're viewing team stats you can sort by team name, a handy feature. Let me break down the steps I take each week:
1. Every week after all the games are completed I copy and paste each stat sheet I desire into my excel file, giving each week its own tab (i.e. "CBS1", "CBS2", etc...). Make sure each week each stat sheet you copy in is in the exact same cells from tab to tab.
2. Make a new blank tab, ("Week 1", "Week 2", etc...), in said tab subtract CBS1 from CBS 2. That way, the stat sheet you will have in your tab will be for that week's data only. You can now delete any games you feel were affected by injury or weather or something like that from your stats.
3. Make a new overall CBS tab. Add "Week 1", "Week 2" and all specific weeks together to form an overall season long stat sheet. This obviously is the more complicated way to do things, but I like being able to leave games out. Simplest method, skip steps 1 and 2 and just use the most recent week of data on CBS' site.
4. Make a "Stats" sheet. On said sheet, compute the stats you want to such as yards per pass attempt, yards per rush attempt, whatever you want to see really. It's all pretty simple excel equations really. You can do this for offense and defense.
5. All these stats don't do you much good if you can't immediately tell what's good and what isn't. Use excel's conditional formatting tool, highlight in green the top 8 teams (top 25%) for each stat category (will have to do column from column), and highlight in red the bottom 8. This gives you a little color code and it's very easy to quickly see who's good somewhere and who isn't. After this week's games is where I feel like stats start to mean something, for now 2 games is just too little data. Hope some of this helps, really is easier to see than to just explain I could email you my stat sheet if you'd like to see how I laid it out. If you're on my mailing list hit me up and I'll get back to you with it.

2. That's tricky to answer. Pretty much every time I'm in front of my laptop I'm looking at something NFL related for at least a little while, I'll time it out one of these weeks haha.

[bypp]

As always, good luck this week. Lookin forward to my Saturday email writeups

[kroyrunner89]

As always, good luck this week. Lookin forward to my Saturday email writeups

Thanks man!

[gshock1]

Good Luck this week Kroy. You're going to need it.

You blow

[saints7011]

Thanks guys! (yes even you ssk) Looking forward to Week 3 getting here, still working on my card but it's getting there! Likely won't post plays with writeups til Saturday as Friday is looking quite busy for me, but one way or another we should have some winners this week!

BOL to you this weekend kroy , I'm heading out saturday morning to do the family thing for the weekend so looks like I will miss this week...

[kroyrunner89]

BOL to you this weekend kroy , I'm heading out saturday morning to do the family thing for the weekend so looks like I will miss this week...

Yikes don't wanna be hearing that! I have to turn in my Leroy's plays by Friday night so I'll post my Leroy's card on here at least on Friday, that way you can pick out what you like from it you just won't have writeups

[saints7011]

Yikes don't wanna be hearing that! I have to turn in my Leroy's plays by Friday night so I'll post my Leroy's card on here at least on Friday, that way you can pick out what you like from it you just won't have writeups

damn dude , that would be cool as hell , I appreciate that...

[Scully]

Very nice gesture on your part Kroy, very nice!