Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)

[taxman]

Kroy...I absolutely respect you...no excuses when you lose and no rah rah when you win.I like how you focus on what's ahead instead of looking back and patting your self on the back...total props to you dude and BOL in Week 3!

[Jakoby87]

good luck this weekend Kroy

[Firefox14]

Thanks so much....That's a lot of work, but I can see from your record that it is paying dividends. BOL.

[kroyrunner89]

Kroy...I absolutely respect you...no excuses when you lose and no rah rah when you win.I like how you focus on what's ahead instead of looking back and patting your self on the back...total props to you dude and BOL in Week 3!

tyvm, I really appreciate it!

good luck this weekend Kroy

Thanks so much....That's a lot of work, but I can see from your record that it is paying dividends. BOL.

So far it has, we're still digging out of the Week 1 hole I put us in though IMO, so hopefully the work gives us another solid week and we get up into the high 60% range!

[HauntingTheHoly]

Kroy, didn't you lose a bet on Philly last week? And wouldn't you have gotten a push if you had jumped on it the first couple days when it was -3? How come you wait so late in the week to play and lose value on plays like that?

[kroyrunner89]

Kroy, didn't you lose a bet on Philly last week? And wouldn't you have gotten a push if you had jumped on it the first couple days when it was -3? How come you wait so late in the week to play and lose value on plays like that?

I didn't bet Philly last week, and I wait because if you're truly confident in a play a point or two of line movement shouldn't make a difference in the end. I had one post with writeups, it was SF, NYJ, Dal, GB, and the Min/Mia under. So that was a 4-1 week

[HauntingTheHoly]

I didn't bet Philly last week, and I wait because if you're truly confident in a play a point or two of line movement shouldn't make a difference in the end. I had one post with writeups, it was SF, NYJ, Dal, GB, and the Min/Mia under. So that was a 4-1 week

My bad, I thought you bet Philly. But hey, if you did that "point or two" wouldda mattered no? lol

[bobbyk1133]

I wait because if you're truly confident in a play a point or two of line movement shouldn't make a difference in the end.

I asked SP the same thing today because i noticed a few of his plays had lost significant value from waiting. Last week SP lost out on the PHI push because of value loss. This week he's playing CIN/CAR total at 3 points lower than the opening line. Neither game was awaiting key injury news or weather so I don't know what the delay was. (I only use SP as an example because he's well known here - i have complete respect for him as a capper).

A point or two difference makes a big impact in the long run especially if it happens around the key numbers. Depending on how much someone wagers, losing an extra 5-10 plays a year because of this is going to make a big dent in a profit margin - especially if you aren't a volume player.

Just my 2 cents.

[PeePee]

Kroy, when will you have this wk plays up? Just wanna compare with my plays. Thanks.

[bombCanada]

Thanks for explaining this method to those unfamiliar with it! My only question is had Week 2 been a disaster 1-4 week or something like that instead what would that have done to your bankroll? Maybe I need to go back and reread some of your initial assumptions for this! Best of luck going forward!

Had week 2 been a disaster week, the line would continue to extend, and the bet size would slowly increase, although not at the exponential rate of chasing. This is where the judgement and experience come in... I try to keep my weekly wager down to 2x the original wager... ie if the line was 10-10-10 I'm OK with something that adds up to 40 or 50, but that's where I will start extending the line rather than further increasing bet size. There always ends up being a judgement call. A few weeks I found myself in a jam because I had slightly larger bet sizes than normal, and to bet everything on my plate I didn't have enough bankroll. So for that week I wagered everything at 1/2 the size dictated by the line, and of course had a boffo weekend. I just took the winnings off the line as I would normally, and now my roll is about 30% larger with that much more breathing room. This is not as scary as it sounds, because I had roughly 20 different games going between college and pro, and while I suppose that all 20 could have lost, instead I hit about 65%. I prefer reducing bet size to dropping games entirely, because playing fewer games increases the possibility of a blowout.

[NewbieForeva]

Does Kroy's write up and pick is posted on this thread? Do you have a spreadsheet like Sportspick3434, Kroy?

[LarryF]

Anxious for another successful Sunday Kroy!

[HauntingTheHoly]

I asked SP the same thing today because i noticed a few of his plays had lost significant value from waiting. Last week SP lost out on the PHI push because of value loss. This week he's playing CIN/CAR total at 3 points lower than the opening line. Neither game was awaiting key injury news or weather so I don't know what the delay was. (I only use SP as an example because he's well known here - i have complete respect for him as a capper).

A point or two difference makes a big impact in the long run especially if it happens around the key numbers. Depending on how much someone wagers, losing an extra 5-10 plays a year because of this is going to make a big dent in a profit margin - especially if you aren't a volume player.

Just my 2 cents.

Yep.

[kroyrunner89]

Leroy's Card for Week 3:
Baltimore -10.5
Phi/Jax OVER 44.5
Mia/NYJ UNDER 34.5
Pit/TB UNDER 33.5
SF/KC UNDER 36.5

Almost put Ten +2.5 in there as well but didn't want to without the extra half point to make it 3. These are my top 6 for the weekend, NOT ALL WILL BE PLAYS! I'm going to spend the next 20ish hours figuring it out and I'll post up my official Week 3 card with writeups tomorrow. To those of you who have recently commented, I'll get back to you all ASAP on any issues brought up

[tonyp0387]

Leroy's Card for Week 3:
Baltimore -10.5
Phi/Jax OVER 44.5
Mia/NYJ UNDER 34.5
Pit/TB UNDER 33.5
SF/KC UNDER 36.5

Almost put Ten +2.5 in there as well but didn't want to without the extra half point to make it 3. These are my top 6 for the weekend, NOT ALL WILL BE PLAYS! I'm going to spend the next 20ish hours figuring it out and I'll post up my official Week 3 card with writeups tomorrow. To those of you who have recently commented, I'll get back to you all ASAP on any issues brought up

Your a smart man buying points at 3 and 7 is a killer at -130

[Julian9]

I don't know if this helps anyone but bodog is a great site for playing dogs.. they always have the dogs of games with an extra .5 or full point.. for example the jags are +3 (-115) hope this helps guys

[kroyrunner89]

Well as far as I know Ten is still +3 almost everywhere, this contest doesn't allow ties though so they dropped it half a point

[taxman]

Thanks for the post KR...will watch for your writeups!

[salvador_7764]

thanks for you hard work kroy

[RJ89]

Kroy, do you have any thoughts on the over in the Detroit/ Minnesota game?

[kroyrunner89]

My bad, I thought you bet Philly. But hey, if you did that "point or two" wouldda mattered no? lol

I asked SP the same thing today because i noticed a few of his plays had lost significant value from waiting. Last week SP lost out on the PHI push because of value loss. This week he's playing CIN/CAR total at 3 points lower than the opening line. Neither game was awaiting key injury news or weather so I don't know what the delay was. (I only use SP as an example because he's well known here - i have complete respect for him as a capper). A point or two difference makes a big impact in the long run especially if it happens around the key numbers. Depending on how much someone wagers, losing an extra 5-10 plays a year because of this is going to make a big dent in a profit margin - especially if you aren't a volume player. Just my 2 cents.

True, had I bet Philly late in the week it would have cost me. I think the value you gain from following the news surrounding a team and getting a weather report later in the week makes up for any value you might lose by the line moving a little. Perfect example for this week, what if you had bet on the Jaguars early this week thinking Kolb was starting at QB for the Eagles? It may not matter in the end, but I'd definitely be much less with the play once the news broke Vick was playing. In the end if a line goes from -3 to -3.5 or something like that it may turn something that would have been a play for me into a no-play, so maybe I miss an opportunity but I'll never force something if the line doesn't look right and I don't think it'll be a fairly comfortable win

[kroyrunner89]

Kroy, when will you have this wk plays up? Just wanna compare with my plays. Thanks.

Does Kroy's write up and pick is posted on this thread? Do you have a spreadsheet like Sportspick3434, Kroy?

I'll have plays with writeups posted tomorrow by late afternoon, I've had issues with the SBR spreadsheets every time I've tried using them so I no longer bother.

Kroy, do you have any thoughts on the over in the Detroit/ Minnesota game?

I lean to the under in this one but it's certainly nothing I'm confident enough in to play myself

[kroyrunner89]

Anxious for another successful Sunday Kroy!

Thanks for the post KR...will watch for your writeups!

thanks for you hard work kroy

Thanks guys!

[MexicanStallion]

Best of luck Sunday. I'm sure you will have success again.

[bobbyk1133]

I think the value you gain from following the news surrounding a team and getting a weather report later in the week makes up for any value you might lose by the line moving a little. Perfect example for this week, what if you had bet on the Jaguars early this week thinking Kolb was starting at QB for the Eagles?

I have to disagree with this logic. If you are on the right side of a game more times than not then the line is rarely going to move in your favor during the week. What team news is going to make up for value lost in a line? Significant injury news and extreme weather are the only things that are going to keep most cappers/sharps from waiting on a play.

I also wouldn't call the PHI/JAX game a perfect example because this news was the exception to the rule. It's not often that a team does a bait n switch like that and how many teams have a backup that is significantly better than the current starter? I doubt anyone thought PHI was a good play with Kolb returning from a concussion and playing behind a suspect offensive line. There have been a ton of QB changes already this season and almost none of them have been a surprise or impacted the line much one way or another.

I understand what you are saying, but I think waiting until late in the week eliminates a handful of plays every week (sides and totals) that no longer have value. The NFL is about finding an edge and by week's end most of the soft lines have already steamed which only leaves you with sharp lines and underdogs to choose from.

[kroyrunner89]

Best of luck Sunday. I'm sure you will have success again.

I have to disagree with this logic. If you are on the right side of a game more times than not then the line is rarely going to move in your favor during the week. What team news is going to make up for value lost in a line? Significant injury news and extreme weather are the only things that are going to keep most cappers/sharps from waiting on a play. I also wouldn't call the PHI/JAX game a perfect example because this news was the exception to the rule. It's not often that a team does a bait n switch like that and how many teams have a backup that is significantly better than the current starter? I doubt anyone thought PHI was a good play with Kolb returning from a concussion and playing behind a suspect offensive line. There have been a ton of QB changes already this season and almost none of them have been a surprise or impacted the line much one way or another. I understand what you are saying, but I think waiting until late in the week eliminates a handful of plays every week (sides and totals) that no longer have value. The NFL is about finding an edge and by week's end most of the soft lines have already steamed which only leaves you with sharp lines and underdogs to choose from.

Perhaps you're right, all I know is I feel that personally if I rush out plays to try and get a better line I tend to skimp on the analysis side of things a bit and later find angles discouraging me from the play once it's too late and I've locked it in. I'd rather throw out a handful of potential plays each week than feel like I haven't had a chance to get a full analysis in on the game

[hitman2010]

Originally Posted by kroyrunner89
Leroy's Card for Week 3:
Baltimore -10.5
Phi/Jax OVER 44.5
Mia/NYJ UNDER 34.5
Pit/TB UNDER 33.5
SF/KC UNDER 36.5

[bobbyk1133]

Perhaps you're right, all I know is I feel that personally if I rush out plays to try and get a better line I tend to skimp on the analysis side of things a bit and later find angles discouraging me from the play once it's too late and I've locked it in. I'd rather throw out a handful of potential plays each week than feel like I haven't had a chance to get a full analysis in on the game

Agreed rushing out plays can undermine the whole process of trying to find an edge. I find early in the season it's tougher to have matchup analysis/power rankings etc ready to go for overnight lines because there's not a lot to go on, but once week 4/5 hits I like to look ahead a week in advance and just adjust/modify things based on what happens on the weekend rather than wait until mid-week.

GL this weekend.

[simonk83]

Looking forward to it Kroy

[gogogo]

good luck every body this week

[Tr4nc3]

Can't wait kroy BOL buddy

[kroyrunner89]

Looking forward to it Kroy

good luck every body this week

Can't wait kroy BOL buddy

Plays and writeups will be up in 2-6 hours depending on how efficient I am

[Scully]

Is this Leroy guy the person involved in the head to head competition with Kroy?

[kroyrunner89]

Is this Lerong, sorry Leroy, guy the person involved in the head to head competition with Kroy?

Nope, Leroy's is a Vegas book that has an annual competition, $250 buy in and 5 picks a week sides or totals.

[Scully]

I see, thanks for sharing that info Kroy and I look forward to your selections this week.