NFL Betting Preview: Redskins, dogs to rule preseason
Thursday, August 5, 2010 08:03 AM ET
By: LT Profits Sports Group | www.sbrforum.com
NFL preseason can be a gold mine for sharps, as great and obvious betting opportunities arise weekly. Underdogs are usually good bets and keep an eye on the Redskins.
Our favorite time of the year has arrived, as the 2010 NFL Preseason gets underway with the Hall of Fame Game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Dallas Cowboys Sunday night.
Many expert and novice bettors alike scoff at the very idea of betting preseason games, but we have hit over 60 percent winners in preseason over the last 10 years and find it much easier to beat than the NFL regular season. As we pointed out in our 2009 Preseason Preview, at no other time in any sport do coaches announce beforehand their player rotations and game plans and then stick to them, which is precisely what makes the preseason easy to beat.
This is the time of year when teams coming off of bad seasons often thrive while teams projected to go deep into the playoffs often could not care less, which makes for some great betting opportunities that stubborn bettors who refuse to bet on exhibition games miss out on.
For example, the Washington Redskins should be great bets this preseason for several reasons. First, they have something to prove after a disappointing 2009 season, and motivation is one of the most important factors in preseason. Secondly, they upgraded the quarterback position with Donovan McNabb, and the fist string offense may get more playing time than usual so that McNabb can his timing down with his new teammates.
But perhaps the most significant reason why the Skins should have a great preseason is the hiring of Mike Shanahan. In addition to being one of the most respected coaches in the league, Shanahan has an amazing lifetime record of 41-19 straight up in the preseason! Unlike many coaches, Shanny cares about wins and losses in these games, and he will be anxious to instill a winning attitude in Washington from the get-go.
A couple of other teams to follow this preseason are the Miami Dolphins and the San Francisco 49ers. Miami coach Tony Sparano has gone 7-1 in his first two preseasons as the Miami coach, while Mike Singletary went 3-1 in his first exhibition season as coach of the Niners, which is not surprising given his fiery personality.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, two teams to fade during the preseason are the Indianapolis Colts and the Arizona Cardinals. The Colts never cared about these games during the Tony Dungy era, and nothing changed in their first year under Jim Caldwell as they went 1-3. As for the Cardinals, Coach Ken Whisenhunt is 2-10 lifetime in preseason including an imperfect 0-4 last season.
Aside from coaching patterns, there are other trends that can lead to big profits during preseason, the most noticeable of which is with totals. Here are the average combined points per game by week during preseason since 2000:
Week Average
HOF 38.4
1 34.0
2 36.7
3 38.6
4 37.9
Hall of Fame Week is a stand alone game, so it could basically be ignored for the purposes of this study. Notice however how the scoring increases steadily over the first three weeks and then drops back a bit in Week 4. This makes perfect sense, as the playing time for the regulars increases as each preseason game passes until the final game, when they are usually held out. Therefore, regulars get the most playing time in Week 3, and the averages above reflect it.
This information comes in very handy when play totals. For example, did you know that in Week 1, the ‘under’ has gone 68-38, 64.2 percent in games with a posted total of 36½ or higher since 2000, including a perfect 8-0 lasts season?
As for angles against the spread, these vary depending on the week, although it is safe to say underdogs getting more than three points have been sage bets until the final week. Week 1 is the week when the starters play the least, so it only makes sense that dogs getting at least +3½ points are 24-18, 57.1 percent against the spread since 2000 in Week 1 and Hall of Fame Week combined, including 10-5, 66.7 percent for dogs of +5 or more.
In Week 2, pay close attention to underdogs that lost in Week 1, as these teams have the added motivation of wanting to improve on their openers. This is especially true when these Week 1 losers are facing teams that won in Week 1, as the latter group may be more content and more concerned about avoiding injuries. Underdogs of +3½ or more have continued to perform well in Week 2, going 35-25, 58.3 percent ATS.
As mentioned earlier, Week 3 of preseason is the week that most closely resembles the regular season, as this is usually the week when the starters get the most playing time. That said, underdogs of +3½ or more have continued to prosper, going 43-30, 58.9 percent ATS including 5-1 last season!
Week 4 is the trickiest week of preseason, as you should isolate the teams that have the best depth, given that the starters will see little or no playing time. Also, blindly playing any dog catching more than a field goal has not worked in the final week as it has in all the other weeks, as these puppies are a losing 33-36 ATS in their finales.
Thus, Week 4 of preseason requires the most homework, so play close attention to local newspapers and websites to get a read on what the coaches’ intentions are.
Thursday, August 5, 2010 08:03 AM ET
By: LT Profits Sports Group | www.sbrforum.com
NFL preseason can be a gold mine for sharps, as great and obvious betting opportunities arise weekly. Underdogs are usually good bets and keep an eye on the Redskins.
Our favorite time of the year has arrived, as the 2010 NFL Preseason gets underway with the Hall of Fame Game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Dallas Cowboys Sunday night.
Many expert and novice bettors alike scoff at the very idea of betting preseason games, but we have hit over 60 percent winners in preseason over the last 10 years and find it much easier to beat than the NFL regular season. As we pointed out in our 2009 Preseason Preview, at no other time in any sport do coaches announce beforehand their player rotations and game plans and then stick to them, which is precisely what makes the preseason easy to beat.
This is the time of year when teams coming off of bad seasons often thrive while teams projected to go deep into the playoffs often could not care less, which makes for some great betting opportunities that stubborn bettors who refuse to bet on exhibition games miss out on.
For example, the Washington Redskins should be great bets this preseason for several reasons. First, they have something to prove after a disappointing 2009 season, and motivation is one of the most important factors in preseason. Secondly, they upgraded the quarterback position with Donovan McNabb, and the fist string offense may get more playing time than usual so that McNabb can his timing down with his new teammates.
But perhaps the most significant reason why the Skins should have a great preseason is the hiring of Mike Shanahan. In addition to being one of the most respected coaches in the league, Shanahan has an amazing lifetime record of 41-19 straight up in the preseason! Unlike many coaches, Shanny cares about wins and losses in these games, and he will be anxious to instill a winning attitude in Washington from the get-go.
A couple of other teams to follow this preseason are the Miami Dolphins and the San Francisco 49ers. Miami coach Tony Sparano has gone 7-1 in his first two preseasons as the Miami coach, while Mike Singletary went 3-1 in his first exhibition season as coach of the Niners, which is not surprising given his fiery personality.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, two teams to fade during the preseason are the Indianapolis Colts and the Arizona Cardinals. The Colts never cared about these games during the Tony Dungy era, and nothing changed in their first year under Jim Caldwell as they went 1-3. As for the Cardinals, Coach Ken Whisenhunt is 2-10 lifetime in preseason including an imperfect 0-4 last season.
Aside from coaching patterns, there are other trends that can lead to big profits during preseason, the most noticeable of which is with totals. Here are the average combined points per game by week during preseason since 2000:
Week Average
HOF 38.4
1 34.0
2 36.7
3 38.6
4 37.9
Hall of Fame Week is a stand alone game, so it could basically be ignored for the purposes of this study. Notice however how the scoring increases steadily over the first three weeks and then drops back a bit in Week 4. This makes perfect sense, as the playing time for the regulars increases as each preseason game passes until the final game, when they are usually held out. Therefore, regulars get the most playing time in Week 3, and the averages above reflect it.
This information comes in very handy when play totals. For example, did you know that in Week 1, the ‘under’ has gone 68-38, 64.2 percent in games with a posted total of 36½ or higher since 2000, including a perfect 8-0 lasts season?
As for angles against the spread, these vary depending on the week, although it is safe to say underdogs getting more than three points have been sage bets until the final week. Week 1 is the week when the starters play the least, so it only makes sense that dogs getting at least +3½ points are 24-18, 57.1 percent against the spread since 2000 in Week 1 and Hall of Fame Week combined, including 10-5, 66.7 percent for dogs of +5 or more.
In Week 2, pay close attention to underdogs that lost in Week 1, as these teams have the added motivation of wanting to improve on their openers. This is especially true when these Week 1 losers are facing teams that won in Week 1, as the latter group may be more content and more concerned about avoiding injuries. Underdogs of +3½ or more have continued to perform well in Week 2, going 35-25, 58.3 percent ATS.
As mentioned earlier, Week 3 of preseason is the week that most closely resembles the regular season, as this is usually the week when the starters get the most playing time. That said, underdogs of +3½ or more have continued to prosper, going 43-30, 58.9 percent ATS including 5-1 last season!
Week 4 is the trickiest week of preseason, as you should isolate the teams that have the best depth, given that the starters will see little or no playing time. Also, blindly playing any dog catching more than a field goal has not worked in the final week as it has in all the other weeks, as these puppies are a losing 33-36 ATS in their finales.
Thus, Week 4 of preseason requires the most homework, so play close attention to local newspapers and websites to get a read on what the coaches’ intentions are.
