Top 'Under' Teams for 2010 NFL Betting Season
The betting public may not think so, but good 'under' bets in the NFL are easier to find than ways to make money on the 'over.' Here are a few squads that will delight low-side bettors in 2010.
Earlier this week, I took on the difficult task of predicting which NFL teams would be profitable ‘over’ wagers this season.
If the SBRforum.com is anything, it’s fair and balanced. It’s only right we follow up my piece on the top ‘over’ teams for 2010 with a look at which clubs are primed to cash the ‘under’ on a regular basis this fall.
Finding ‘under’ teams is an easier endeavor, trust me. While only nine of 32 teams hit the ‘over’ more often than the ‘under’ last season, 19 NFL
clubs finished the year on the ‘under’ side of the ledger.
Overall, the ‘under’ cashed in 53% of NFL games last season, and if you take the overtime games out of the mix, the ‘under’ was the result on the total close to 55% of the time.
In the most high-scoring era in NFL betting history, teams are overvalued in terms of their collective ability to combine for more points than the listed total.
The reason for this is quite simple: As I mentioned earlier this week, public bettors love to bet the ‘over’ because they want to see lots of scoring. The average square would take a 38-31 Patriots-Colts barnburner over a 13-10 Ravens-Jets clash any day of the week, and they throw around their money accordingly.
Last season, the four top ‘under’ bets were the Cardinals (5-11 O/U), 49ers (5-11 O/U), Texans (5-10-1 O/U), and Patriots (5-10-1 O/U). After those four teams, five clubs finished at 6-10 O/U (Bills, Panthers, Bears, Cowboys, Buccaneers).
Since I already outed San Francisco as a sleeper ‘over’ wager this season, we can take it off the list of teams that should regularly cash the ‘under’ in ’10.
Of last season’s culprits, I like New England to continue playing ‘under’ the total on Sunday. The Pats are the most public of public teams with Tom Brady and Randy Moss on offense, and the unit as a whole is overrated.
Don’t get me wrong, New England has a great offense, but squares seem to think it’s off the charts like it was during its magical 2007 season. It’s not. The Patriots ranked third in total offense, sixth in scoring, and fifth in scoring defense last season, but they still managed to play ‘over’ the number only five times.
Keep in mind New England plays four games a season against the Jets and Dolphins – two of the NFL’s better defenses. Thing is, any time they play, squares only look at the Pats’ side of the equation, and forget what their opponent brings to the table.
Over in the NFC, all you have to do is follow the Donovan McNabb trail to find some ‘unders’ this season. Expect the Eagles to consistently play ‘under’ because of McNabb’s departure, and handicap the Redskins to be an ‘under’ team because of his arrival in Washington.
Philadelphia went 10-6 O/U last season, but it’ll be a much different team with McNabb gone. Even with McNabb calling plays, the Eagles’ offense hit above its weight. Philly ranked 11th in offense, but scored the fifth most points league-wide.
If McNabb were still an Eagle, I’d cap Philadelphia to be 8-8 O/U this season. With Kevin Kolb running what should be a more conservative offensive approach from Andy Reid, the Eagles won’t come close to matching last season’s output.
It’s fine, because the points are going to rain down in the nation’s capital, right? Not bloody likely. Sure, McNabb is an upgrade over Jason Campbell at quarterback, but he can’t solve the Redskins’ woes on his own.
The public is looking for Washington to explode offensively, and that’ll drive up the total on its games. Perfect spot to wager the ‘under’, especially early in the season.
The ‘Skins were 22nd in total offense and 26th in scoring offense last season, and they don’t have much of a running game. You know the franchise has little hope for Clinton Portis when it brings in a washed-up Larry Johnson and a cast-off Willie Parker to battle for a job in the backfield.
McNabb will make a difference, but there’s a long way to go before Washington is an offensive juggernaut.
The betting public may not think so, but good 'under' bets in the NFL are easier to find than ways to make money on the 'over.' Here are a few squads that will delight low-side bettors in 2010.
Earlier this week, I took on the difficult task of predicting which NFL teams would be profitable ‘over’ wagers this season.
If the SBRforum.com is anything, it’s fair and balanced. It’s only right we follow up my piece on the top ‘over’ teams for 2010 with a look at which clubs are primed to cash the ‘under’ on a regular basis this fall.
Finding ‘under’ teams is an easier endeavor, trust me. While only nine of 32 teams hit the ‘over’ more often than the ‘under’ last season, 19 NFL
clubs finished the year on the ‘under’ side of the ledger.
Overall, the ‘under’ cashed in 53% of NFL games last season, and if you take the overtime games out of the mix, the ‘under’ was the result on the total close to 55% of the time.
In the most high-scoring era in NFL betting history, teams are overvalued in terms of their collective ability to combine for more points than the listed total.
The reason for this is quite simple: As I mentioned earlier this week, public bettors love to bet the ‘over’ because they want to see lots of scoring. The average square would take a 38-31 Patriots-Colts barnburner over a 13-10 Ravens-Jets clash any day of the week, and they throw around their money accordingly.
Last season, the four top ‘under’ bets were the Cardinals (5-11 O/U), 49ers (5-11 O/U), Texans (5-10-1 O/U), and Patriots (5-10-1 O/U). After those four teams, five clubs finished at 6-10 O/U (Bills, Panthers, Bears, Cowboys, Buccaneers).
Since I already outed San Francisco as a sleeper ‘over’ wager this season, we can take it off the list of teams that should regularly cash the ‘under’ in ’10.
Of last season’s culprits, I like New England to continue playing ‘under’ the total on Sunday. The Pats are the most public of public teams with Tom Brady and Randy Moss on offense, and the unit as a whole is overrated.
Don’t get me wrong, New England has a great offense, but squares seem to think it’s off the charts like it was during its magical 2007 season. It’s not. The Patriots ranked third in total offense, sixth in scoring, and fifth in scoring defense last season, but they still managed to play ‘over’ the number only five times.
Keep in mind New England plays four games a season against the Jets and Dolphins – two of the NFL’s better defenses. Thing is, any time they play, squares only look at the Pats’ side of the equation, and forget what their opponent brings to the table.
Over in the NFC, all you have to do is follow the Donovan McNabb trail to find some ‘unders’ this season. Expect the Eagles to consistently play ‘under’ because of McNabb’s departure, and handicap the Redskins to be an ‘under’ team because of his arrival in Washington.
Philadelphia went 10-6 O/U last season, but it’ll be a much different team with McNabb gone. Even with McNabb calling plays, the Eagles’ offense hit above its weight. Philly ranked 11th in offense, but scored the fifth most points league-wide.
If McNabb were still an Eagle, I’d cap Philadelphia to be 8-8 O/U this season. With Kevin Kolb running what should be a more conservative offensive approach from Andy Reid, the Eagles won’t come close to matching last season’s output.
It’s fine, because the points are going to rain down in the nation’s capital, right? Not bloody likely. Sure, McNabb is an upgrade over Jason Campbell at quarterback, but he can’t solve the Redskins’ woes on his own.
The public is looking for Washington to explode offensively, and that’ll drive up the total on its games. Perfect spot to wager the ‘under’, especially early in the season.
The ‘Skins were 22nd in total offense and 26th in scoring offense last season, and they don’t have much of a running game. You know the franchise has little hope for Clinton Portis when it brings in a washed-up Larry Johnson and a cast-off Willie Parker to battle for a job in the backfield.
McNabb will make a difference, but there’s a long way to go before Washington is an offensive juggernaut.
