betting on pre-season games

spurginobili · 06-25-10, 10:26 PM

I've been betting NFL preseason the past three years with good success.

If you read team's local newspapers online you can get a good idea of how long starters will play and generally what the head coach wants to accomplish. Some head coaches put more value on winning these games than others.

Usually early in the preseason defenses have an edge over offenses, although totals usually reflect that.

GunShard · 06-25-10, 10:56 PM

I wouldn't bet preseason and the first few weeks of regular season.

lTheShadowl · 06-25-10, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by GunShard

I wouldn't bet preseason and the first few weeks of regular season.

I agree, the later in the season, the better I do. Need to get a feel for teams...

icancount2one · 06-25-10, 11:47 PM

I normally don't bet preseason games, but couldn't resist the HoF game last season.

My method was the same it is with any game, try to understand the entire situation and make a play if I thought the books had it wrong.

I looked at the Bills and the Titans strengths and weaknesses and came up with the following:

The Titans were by FAR the better team the season before. The Bills seem to fall apart with the moment a couple starters get injured, suggesting a lack of depth. I figured the Titans starters would pound on the Bills starters, and as backups came in the Titans' edge would only increase. TEN -5 was a no brainer.

I was sitting pretty up 14 points with a few minutes to go in the 4th. The Bills scored on their last meaningless drive, and kicked it away to TEN. After running the clock down to just a few seconds, the punter elected to RUN BACKWARDS INTO THE ENDZONE for an unneccessary safety on the final play!

Even though I came away with a push, I would make that pick again in a heartbeat. Of course if nothing jumps off the page at you, don't try to force things. I think that's good advice at any point in the season (except maybe the SB).

But to answer your question, compare the starters, the backups, and the coach's history in preseason. For instance, Rex Ryan will be playing to win games from day one. He wouldn't stop throwing everything he had at the Eagles the only Jets preseason game I watched.

frankzig · 06-26-10, 03:26 AM

so hard to bet pre season the way coaches are looking atmostly unproven players

jon13009 · 06-26-10, 04:17 AM

Too many variables to consider. Preseason is a total crap shoot.

iwantcougars · 06-26-10, 12:07 PM

it's hard thing to do, i think the only pre-season game worth capping is the last game and only the 1h

2Bdown · 06-26-10, 12:15 PM

i will wait for the real thing

2Bdown · 06-26-10, 12:16 PM

just too unpredictable for me to put my hard earned $$ on

TheGuesser · 06-26-10, 05:16 PM

Coaching patterns. Follow these and you'll make money.

joe.park · 06-26-10, 05:56 PM

Preseason is just for fun. Week 1 ois the real thing.

Glitch · 06-26-10, 10:14 PM

colts to lose is an interesting concept because they traditionally dont give a flying f*ck

icancount2one · 06-27-10, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by iwantcougars

it's hard thing to do, i think the only pre-season game worth capping is the last game and only the 1h

I guess that works. Just cap the starters.

Originally posted by TheGuesser

Coaching patterns. Follow these and you'll make money.

Originally posted by Glitch

colts to lose is an interesting concept because they traditionally dont give a flying f*ck

If you're going to bet the whole game, the coaching/ownership philosophy is the single most important factor imo.

scarp · 06-27-10, 10:30 AM

go with the team that has the best backup QB and 3rd-4th string WR/RB

BGboothA · 06-27-10, 01:27 PM

I actually like preseason football, for the sole reason that you know what is going to happen and neither team is worried about the score.

strasburger · 06-27-10, 01:54 PM

Love betting the preseason pigskin

jmiezie · 06-27-10, 03:08 PM

I agree with the coaching tendencies.. Some coachs put more value into these games then other

ROYAJA8 · 06-28-10, 01:34 AM

Originally posted by scarp

go with the team that has the best backup QB and 3rd-4th string WR/RB

This is my strategy it's a moneymaker.

msec512 · 06-28-10, 02:22 PM

I never bet preseason. But, if you can't help yourself, look at the backup QB's and check the coaches records in Preseason. Some care about winning more than others.

ijrod21i · 06-28-10, 02:53 PM

It varies for each game but in the first few, defense has the edge. Look for teams that have a qb battle or have a good back up.

xyzky · 06-28-10, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by icancount2one

I normally don't bet preseason games, but couldn't resist the HoF game last season.

My method was the same it is with any game, try to understand the entire situation and make a play if I thought the books had it wrong.

I looked at the Bills and the Titans strengths and weaknesses and came up with the following:

The Titans were by FAR the better team the season before. The Bills seem to fall apart with the moment a couple starters get injured, suggesting a lack of depth. I figured the Titans starters would pound on the Bills starters, and as backups came in the Titans' edge would only increase. TEN -5 was a no brainer.

I was sitting pretty up 14 points with a few minutes to go in the 4th. The Bills scored on their last meaningless drive, and kicked it away to TEN. After running the clock down to just a few seconds, the punter elected to RUN BACKWARDS INTO THE ENDZONE for an unneccessary safety on the final play!

Even though I came away with a push, I would make that pick again in a heartbeat. Of course if nothing jumps off the page at you, don't try to force things. I think that's good advice at any point in the season (except maybe the SB).

But to answer your question, compare the starters, the backups, and the coach's history in preseason. For instance, Rex Ryan will be playing to win games from day one. He wouldn't stop throwing everything he had at the Eagles the only Jets preseason game I watched.

LOL, I remeber that play...I couldnt resist betting that game either...

xyzky · 06-28-10, 05:58 PM

Preseason 2010

Hall of Fame Game
Sun, Aug 08 Stadium Time (ET)
CIN @ DAL Fawcett Stadium 8:00 PM NBC

xyzky · 06-28-10, 05:59 PM

Looking at this I feel much better...I have been focusing on Sept 2nd and forgot about Pre-Season Football!!! I really dont bet much, but, it's so nice to watch some live action...

DaProfessor23 · 06-28-10, 06:43 PM

throw half unit on over for fun =]

Thomas · 06-28-10, 07:21 PM

Don't you believe the hype about x season not being a good betting opportunity because that's bs. Most professional level and serious gamblers make a good dollar during the preseason and it sets you up to get involved early in the regular season. It does however require leg work but trust me all the info you want and more is readily available on the net, including coaches, teams, and refs records and tendencies as well as detailed stats ats at different spreads and totals and weeks for many years of preseason. If your any kind of capper at all you will find all the info you need to make educated picks and winning is surprisingly easy. But like I said you have to do the leg work and you'll be the better for it come week 1. Don't be confused it's not the same as regular season and you have to look at different things and qtr and half betting comes into play more often than not.

I think people who say don't bet the preseason because blah blah blah just don't know how to approach it or just aren't interested but to dismiss it categorically is a mistake. Do your homework and pick your spots from the wealth of info available and you'll be the better for it, I know I am and I know many others as well.

BarkingToad · 06-28-10, 08:24 PM

Look at the quarterback rotations. Certain coaches have a history of playing to win while others could care less about pre season games.