Division Predictions and Win Totals: AFC West
Hey everyone, we're now under four months away from the kickoff of the 2010 NFL season! As many of you are aware, odds for division winners and win totals for teams have begun popping up on some online sports books, as well as in Vegas. This year, I've decided to take a stab at some of these futures bets, as you saw last week when I did my Super Bowl write up. A quick note on that, consider the Packers as a team that I like now as well, I feel like there's some value there. I could go into a whole write up but I'll spare you until I touch on them again breaking down the NFC North. To help kill some of this time until the start of the season, I'm going to do a write up for each of the next eight weeks breaking down one NFL division at a time (With a little luck, we'll know whether or not Favre is coming back by the time I get to the NFC North). I'll be covering each team's win totals, while also looking at each team's odds to win their respective division. I'll start off this week with the AFC West, as this is probably one of the easiest divisions to break down. Win totals lines are taken from the Venetian, the division odds are from sportsbook.com.
A couple final notes, since it's the first year I'm trying futures bets, don't take my word as gospel. There's no guarantee I'll be as successful at these as I am at picking games each week, but I do feel my opinion could be beneficial to you guys, so do what you will with it. Also, just because I predict a team to have a win more or less than their win line doesn't mean it'll be a play for me. So, I'll have some instances where I say no play because I'm not confident enough that things will play out as I see them. So without further ado, here's what I'm thinking for the AFC West:
I expect the Broncos to take a step back in a big way in 2010. This is a team that started the 2009 season 6-0, yet had a disastrous 2-8 finish and missed the playoffs. Through those first six games their defense was rock solid, #3 against the run and #4 against the pass. In their last 10 games their pass defense stayed solid at #6, however their rush defense returned to it's poor 2008 form and was ranked dead last in the NFL over that span. Combine that with their passing and rushing attack disappearing, and it's easy to see why they struggled so much to finish out the season.
In 2010, the Broncos find themselves in pretty bad shape. For starters, Brandon Marshall, a huge piece of their offense, is no longer with their team. Marshall was responsible for about 1/4 of the team's yards through the air, and about half of their touchdowns through the air as well. Although other receivers will step up, the loss will still be felt. Throw in a tough schedule, and I don't see much hope for the Broncos in 2010. 5-1 odds aren't good enough to risk betting this team to win the West, so save your money.
Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: UNDER 7
The big offseason acquisition for the Chiefs was probably RB Thomas Jones. Although they got much needed help at safety with#5 draft pick Eric Berry, he certainly won't be enough to turn that defense around. The Chiefs found themselves near the bottom of the NFL against both the pass and run, ranking 27th and 29th. The brightest area for the Chiefs was running the ball in 2009, as they were 8th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt. I expect this to remain about the same in 2010, as Charles and Jones should be quite the duo at RB. However, their passing game was abysmal, ranking 29th in the NFL. With no major new pieces in place this season (No disrespect to TE Leonard Pope), one has to wonder how big of a rebound this unit can really have.
Playing the AFC South in 2010, you have to think the Jaguars really look like the only winnable game of the bunch. In division, the Chiefs should be able to take two or three games from the Raiders and Broncos, but I can't see them beating the Chargers. They could pick up a couple wins against their NFC West foes, and Cleveland and Buffalo are both teams that I can see the Chiefs beating in 2010 as well. Obviously you don't want to bet this team to win the division, even at +600, another to stay away from.
Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: NO PLAY
I'm just going to spare you all the suspense and tell you now not to bet the Raiders to win the division. Shocker. However, things are looking up in Oakland as the JaMarcus Russell era is finally over. The Raiders were able to acquire Jason Campbell from the Redskins during the offseason, and in my opinion he should offer this team a bit of a boost on offense. The Raiders' big problem on offense is still the lack of wide receivers, as Heyward-Bey still is reported incapable of catching passes consistently. Chaz Schilens spent most of last year injured, but began to show flashes of potential towards the end of the year. It remains to be seen if he can be an impact player this coming season.
Oakland struggled on defense last year, as they were 7th worst against the pass and 8th worst against the run. 9th overall pick Rolando McClain should help patch up some of the run troubles, and with Asomugha still at Corner Back the Raiders' woes against the pass can't be too bad. This will probably still be a below average defense, but it should take a step up from where it was a year ago. The Raiders get a bit tougher of a draw than the Chiefs, as their additional two games are against the Dolphins and Steelers, which is why I can't predict them to pass up the Chiefs this season. However, I can see this team improving slightly from where it was a year ago.
Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: NO PLAY
Like I said earlier, the Chargers are why this division is easiest to pick. Due to weak opposition and a strong offense, the Chargers are as close as you'll ever see me come to using the word "Lock" in one of my write ups. In 2009, the Chargers cruised to a 13-3 record, taking the AFC West with ease. However, this wasn't a team without flaws. For starters, their defense was 7th worst in the NFL against the run. Furthermore, their rushing offense was dead last in yards per rush attempt. Given these flaws, their 13-3 record looks all that more impressive in retrospect, and makes it a bit clearer why they lost to the Jets in the playoffs.
With the Tomlinson era having ended in San Diego, the door is opened for RB Ryan Mathews, who you have to believe will be able to do more for the Chargers than LT was able to last year. Sproles remains the #2 RB for the team, and will likely serve a similar function as last year. Mathews should help give this offense a bit more balance, and with Jackson and Gates still around, Rivers should lead an explosive passing offense again. The Chargers should do no worse than 5-1 in their division, and could easily sweep it. Six games on their schedule present potential challenges: @Colts, @Bengals, Patriots, @Texans, 49ers, Titans. Assuming they split these games and blow two games they should win, they're still an 11 win team. Looks to me like another easy AFC West title, making the -250 odds well worth a bet.
Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 10.5
2010 Predicted AFC West Standings:
Chargers: 11-5
Broncos: 6-10
Chiefs: 6-10
Raiders: 6-10
AFC West Plays:
Broncos UNDER 7
Chargers OVER 10.5
Chargers to win division -250
Good luck to anyone who makes any plays, see you all next week!
A couple final notes, since it's the first year I'm trying futures bets, don't take my word as gospel. There's no guarantee I'll be as successful at these as I am at picking games each week, but I do feel my opinion could be beneficial to you guys, so do what you will with it. Also, just because I predict a team to have a win more or less than their win line doesn't mean it'll be a play for me. So, I'll have some instances where I say no play because I'm not confident enough that things will play out as I see them. So without further ado, here's what I'm thinking for the AFC West:
- Denver Broncos
- Win line: 7
- Odds to win division: +500 (5-1)
I expect the Broncos to take a step back in a big way in 2010. This is a team that started the 2009 season 6-0, yet had a disastrous 2-8 finish and missed the playoffs. Through those first six games their defense was rock solid, #3 against the run and #4 against the pass. In their last 10 games their pass defense stayed solid at #6, however their rush defense returned to it's poor 2008 form and was ranked dead last in the NFL over that span. Combine that with their passing and rushing attack disappearing, and it's easy to see why they struggled so much to finish out the season.
In 2010, the Broncos find themselves in pretty bad shape. For starters, Brandon Marshall, a huge piece of their offense, is no longer with their team. Marshall was responsible for about 1/4 of the team's yards through the air, and about half of their touchdowns through the air as well. Although other receivers will step up, the loss will still be felt. Throw in a tough schedule, and I don't see much hope for the Broncos in 2010. 5-1 odds aren't good enough to risk betting this team to win the West, so save your money.
Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: UNDER 7
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Win line: 6
- Odds to win divison: +600 (6-1)
The big offseason acquisition for the Chiefs was probably RB Thomas Jones. Although they got much needed help at safety with#5 draft pick Eric Berry, he certainly won't be enough to turn that defense around. The Chiefs found themselves near the bottom of the NFL against both the pass and run, ranking 27th and 29th. The brightest area for the Chiefs was running the ball in 2009, as they were 8th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt. I expect this to remain about the same in 2010, as Charles and Jones should be quite the duo at RB. However, their passing game was abysmal, ranking 29th in the NFL. With no major new pieces in place this season (No disrespect to TE Leonard Pope), one has to wonder how big of a rebound this unit can really have.
Playing the AFC South in 2010, you have to think the Jaguars really look like the only winnable game of the bunch. In division, the Chiefs should be able to take two or three games from the Raiders and Broncos, but I can't see them beating the Chargers. They could pick up a couple wins against their NFC West foes, and Cleveland and Buffalo are both teams that I can see the Chiefs beating in 2010 as well. Obviously you don't want to bet this team to win the division, even at +600, another to stay away from.
Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: NO PLAY
- Oakland Raiders
- Win Line: 5.5
- Odds to win division: +650 (6.5-1)
I'm just going to spare you all the suspense and tell you now not to bet the Raiders to win the division. Shocker. However, things are looking up in Oakland as the JaMarcus Russell era is finally over. The Raiders were able to acquire Jason Campbell from the Redskins during the offseason, and in my opinion he should offer this team a bit of a boost on offense. The Raiders' big problem on offense is still the lack of wide receivers, as Heyward-Bey still is reported incapable of catching passes consistently. Chaz Schilens spent most of last year injured, but began to show flashes of potential towards the end of the year. It remains to be seen if he can be an impact player this coming season.
Oakland struggled on defense last year, as they were 7th worst against the pass and 8th worst against the run. 9th overall pick Rolando McClain should help patch up some of the run troubles, and with Asomugha still at Corner Back the Raiders' woes against the pass can't be too bad. This will probably still be a below average defense, but it should take a step up from where it was a year ago. The Raiders get a bit tougher of a draw than the Chiefs, as their additional two games are against the Dolphins and Steelers, which is why I can't predict them to pass up the Chiefs this season. However, I can see this team improving slightly from where it was a year ago.
Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: NO PLAY
- San Diego Chargers
- Win Line: 10.5
- Odds to win division: -250
Like I said earlier, the Chargers are why this division is easiest to pick. Due to weak opposition and a strong offense, the Chargers are as close as you'll ever see me come to using the word "Lock" in one of my write ups. In 2009, the Chargers cruised to a 13-3 record, taking the AFC West with ease. However, this wasn't a team without flaws. For starters, their defense was 7th worst in the NFL against the run. Furthermore, their rushing offense was dead last in yards per rush attempt. Given these flaws, their 13-3 record looks all that more impressive in retrospect, and makes it a bit clearer why they lost to the Jets in the playoffs.
With the Tomlinson era having ended in San Diego, the door is opened for RB Ryan Mathews, who you have to believe will be able to do more for the Chargers than LT was able to last year. Sproles remains the #2 RB for the team, and will likely serve a similar function as last year. Mathews should help give this offense a bit more balance, and with Jackson and Gates still around, Rivers should lead an explosive passing offense again. The Chargers should do no worse than 5-1 in their division, and could easily sweep it. Six games on their schedule present potential challenges: @Colts, @Bengals, Patriots, @Texans, 49ers, Titans. Assuming they split these games and blow two games they should win, they're still an 11 win team. Looks to me like another easy AFC West title, making the -250 odds well worth a bet.
Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 10.5
2010 Predicted AFC West Standings:
Chargers: 11-5
Broncos: 6-10
Chiefs: 6-10
Raiders: 6-10
AFC West Plays:
Broncos UNDER 7
Chargers OVER 10.5
Chargers to win division -250
Good luck to anyone who makes any plays, see you all next week!
