Early Division Predictions

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  • kroyrunner89
    SBR MVP
    • 10-25-08
    • 1191

    #1
    Early Division Predictions
    These are my very early predictions for the divisions, I'll revise twice probably before the season kicks off. I ran some probability stuff which is why these records are so close looking, we know there will be a fair share of elite/terrible teams along the way. For example, I think it's low on # of Cowboy wins. Here's what I've got pre-draft though, feel free to chime in with your own!

    NFC West:
    49ers 9-7
    Seahawks 7-9
    Cardinals 7-9
    Rams 6-10

    NFC South:
    Saints 11-5
    Falcons 10-6 (WC #1)
    Panthers 8-8
    Bucs 6-10

    NFC East:
    Cowboys 10-6
    Redskins 8-8
    Eagles 7-9
    Giants 7-9

    NFC North:
    Vikings 10-6
    Packers 9-7 (WC #2)
    Bears 8-8
    Lions 5-11

    AFC West:
    Chargers 11-5
    Chiefs 6-10
    Raiders 5-11
    Broncos 5-11

    AFC South:
    Titans 11-5
    Colts 10-6 (WC #1)
    Texans 8-8
    Jaguars 6-10

    AFC East:
    Jets 12-4
    Patriots 10-6 (WC #2)
    Dolphins 8-8
    Bills 4-12

    AFC North:
    Ravens 11-5
    Bengals 9-7
    Steelers 8-8
    Browns 4-12
    2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
    2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
    2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
    2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

    Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
  • icancount2one
    SBR MVP
    • 01-05-10
    • 1507

    #2
    Wow. LOL at your NFC East rankings. Also the lions and the rams getting 5-6 wins is highly unlikely imo.

    At least whatever model you're using is giving the ravens and jets their due.
    Walter forgot... when you're desperate's when you got no choice.
    Comment
    • slacker00
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 10-06-05
      • 12262

      #3
      Looks fairly solid to me. Pitts at 8-8 is probably my biggest objection. They'll snap back around.
      Comment
      • kroyrunner89
        SBR MVP
        • 10-25-08
        • 1191

        #4
        Yeah, NFC East was probably the thing I disliked most about this too. I think I have the Redskins and Giants about right, Eagles and Cowboys could win a couple more than that though. As for the Steelers, I've only got them 8-8 because I'm anticipating a 3-4 game suspension for Big Ben. I think that'll be the difference for them in the end.
        2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
        2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
        2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
        2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

        Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
        Comment
        • BobbyBaseballs
          SBR Sharp
          • 11-01-08
          • 471

          #5
          Not even close on the colts n titans......Peyton another 13 win season Titans might win 8 or 9.
          Comment
          • BigdaddyQH
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 07-13-09
            • 19530

            #6
            Big Ben will be suspended for the first Baltimore game, at home, as well as the opener at home against Atlanta and away games against Tennesee and Tampa Bay. That is the minimum suspension for him. A 1-3 start is certainly possible now. Pitt is in trouble.
            Comment
            • daneblazer
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 09-14-08
              • 27861

              #7
              Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
              Big Ben will be suspended for the first Baltimore game, at home, as well as the opener at home against Atlanta and away games against Tennesee and Tampa Bay. That is the minimum suspension for him. A 1-3 start is certainly possible now. Pitt is in trouble.
              I didn't like the Steelers this year w/ Ben, much less with Leftwich or that guy from Oregon. They will be hard pressed to be over .500
              Comment
              • BigdaddyQH
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 07-13-09
                • 19530

                #8
                I also seriously doubt that the Rams will win 6 games. They have no experienced QB. The team is basically in total disarray. They will lose home games to San Diego, Carolina, and Atlanta. They will lose 7 away games. There is 10 losses right there, and that is assuming that they can defeat their NFC West rivals at home.
                Comment
                • slacker00
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 10-06-05
                  • 12262

                  #9
                  Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                  I also seriously doubt that the Rams will win 6 games. They have no experienced QB. The team is basically in total disarray. They will lose home games to San Diego, Carolina, and Atlanta. They will lose 7 away games. There is 10 losses right there, and that is assuming that they can defeat their NFC West rivals at home.
                  I sure wouldn't bet the over. I don't know where the Rams are getting any wins.

                  As for the Steelers, once they deal Ben things will straighten out. They will do fine under Leftwich or Dixon. They need to get back to smash mouth defense and power running game anyway.
                  Comment
                  • tabletop3
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 04-10-10
                    • 17

                    #10
                    Lol, vikings at 10-6. What a hater you are. These division winners are way too predictable, it won't happen that way.
                    Comment
                    • mr.inpak
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 12-13-09
                      • 450

                      #11
                      best value minnesota win nfc +1050 at The Greek
                      Comment
                      • filter15
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 11-05-09
                        • 549

                        #12
                        the rams seemed to improve there and bottom barrell teams seem to float at 5 games
                        interesting
                        Comment
                        • Rig
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 11-05-09
                          • 458

                          #13
                          I think you overrated the seahawks

                          and i thik the jets aret as good this year.
                          Comment
                          • daneblazer
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 09-14-08
                            • 27861

                            #14
                            Originally posted by tabletop3
                            Lol, vikings at 10-6. What a hater you are. These division winners are way too predictable, it won't happen that way.
                            Vikings have one of the toughest schedules in the league. Add that to the fact their #2 CB is coming off a torn ACL and Kevin Williams and Fat Pat could get suspended for 4 games. If that happens, they would be lucky to go 2-2 over that given stretch. There were rumors around the time of the draft they were interested in Haynesworth...if the Williams are suspended and Pat probably only playing for one more year, that rumor may be revisited.
                            Comment
                            • GunShard
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 03-05-10
                              • 10032

                              #15
                              Looks good.

                              I don't think Vince Young and the Titans can create a 11-5 record with thier faulty defense.
                              Comment
                              • kroyrunner89
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-25-08
                                • 1191

                                #16
                                Yeah I've since revised my Titans record I've lowered the mark for them
                                2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                                2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                                2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                                2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                                Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                                Comment
                                • crazymilkman
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 02-15-10
                                  • 434

                                  #17
                                  good luck
                                  Comment
                                  • CaptainPrice
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-29-09
                                    • 1064

                                    #18
                                    also dont thin the saints fully recover their previous form
                                    Comment
                                    • madden
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 05-10-10
                                      • 71

                                      #19
                                      South ---> AFC: Totally disagree
                                      NFC: Totally agree.



                                      Edit: well, except for Tampa bay's record. I think the Rays are the city's only thing to be proud of this year in sports. I'll not be surprised if they get 3/4 wins only
                                      Comment
                                      • joe.park
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 03-23-10
                                        • 150

                                        #20
                                        Giants won't be last in division.
                                        Comment
                                        • Cappy
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 07-26-08
                                          • 784

                                          #21
                                          The Jets aren't that strong of a team. They have a really great defense and we saw glimmers of production from Sanchez, I think they over performed last year, they'll probably go 10-6
                                          Comment
                                          • stealthyburrito
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 05-12-09
                                            • 21562

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Cappy
                                            The Jets aren't that strong of a team. They have a really great defense and we saw glimmers of production from Sanchez, I think they over performed last year, they'll probably go 10-6
                                            completely agree, maybe even 9-7. gotta play baltimore, green bay, and minny at home, all very losable games. and of course they gotta play the pats and the vastly improved fins twice.

                                            12-4 seems way too high imo.
                                            Comment
                                            • miley
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 03-24-10
                                              • 151

                                              #23
                                              Agree, 12-4 is a lot for Jets.
                                              Comment
                                              • JW Cash
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-31-08
                                                • 4453

                                                #24
                                                I think Green Bay will win the NFC North and possibly the Super Bowl
                                                Comment
                                                • kroyrunner89
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 10-25-08
                                                  • 1191

                                                  #25
                                                  The thing about the Jets is they'll shut down the pass so well this year. Teams like Green Bay and the Pats are going to be pass heavy teams. I have since lowered the projection to 11-5 though, definitely a bit more reasonable
                                                  2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                                                  2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                                                  2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                                                  2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                                                  Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Ch3fDan
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 02-02-10
                                                    • 305

                                                    #26
                                                    Maybe it's just me, but I see the bears struggling to get 8 wins this year.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SpreadSniper
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-17-09
                                                      • 6125

                                                      #27
                                                      Tennesse beating out Indy for the Division - bold.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • kroyrunner89
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-25-08
                                                        • 1191

                                                        #28
                                                        Still possible, but their defense is a bigger problem than I originally thought when I wrote this up. I'll do my full AFC South write up in a few weeks and figure out then what my final prediction is
                                                        2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                                                        2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                                                        2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                                                        2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                                                        Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Ch3fDan
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 02-02-10
                                                          • 305

                                                          #29
                                                          I think the Falcons and Panthers may finish closer than you think. I don't have high hopes for the Falcons.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ZBOIZ
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 06-22-08
                                                            • 21464

                                                            #30
                                                            Saints go 13-3 this year
                                                            Comment
                                                            • CheeseWhiz
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 11-30-09
                                                              • 202

                                                              #31
                                                              green bay 9-7 is just lol
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Ch3fDan
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 02-02-10
                                                                • 305

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by CheeseWhiz
                                                                green bay 9-7 is just lol

                                                                Indeed, look out for the Green and Gold this year.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • kroyrunner89
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 10-25-08
                                                                  • 1191

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by CheeseWhiz
                                                                  green bay 9-7 is just lol
                                                                  Don't worry, I've since revised. I wish I had included this team in my Super Bowl write up, I was under the impression at the time that they hadn't resigned Clifton for some reason. When I hit on the NFC North in a month and a half you'll see a better projected record for the Packers than this
                                                                  2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                                                                  2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                                                                  2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                                                                  2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                                                                  Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Z_Wipf
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-15-10
                                                                    • 1131

                                                                    #34
                                                                    No way bucs get that many wins, they are terrible
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • xdmoney13x
                                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                                      • 05-16-10
                                                                      • 82

                                                                      #35
                                                                      terrible predictions
                                                                      Comment
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