Welcome to the 2018 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Pick one team every week. If that team wins, you move on to the next week. If that team loses, your entry is eliminated. The only caveat is that you cannot use the same team twice. You can find all the rules here.
To determine the best picks each week, I lean heavily upon ESPN's Football Power Index. For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here. I also look at the pick percentages for each team on the ESPN Eliminator Challenge page to see which teams the majority of fans are picking.
Last week was as chaotic as it gets. The Minnesota Vikings became the first 17-point favorite to lose outright since 1995, knocking out 57.2 percent of Eliminator Challenge participants in the process. And that wasn't all. The second- and third-most selected teams -- the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars -- also lost. Consider yourself lucky if you managed to survive last week.
This week, the picks are a lot more wide open. The Green Bay Packers and Jaguars are the two most popular teams early in the week, but neither will come close to the Vikings' ownership from last week. Top Pick
Los Angeles Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers The 49ers are quickly looking like a team to pick on in Eliminator. The 49ers are the eighth-worst defense in defensive efficiency, and now they have to turn to C.J. Beathard at quarterback. Last year, Beathard ranked 31st in Total QBR among 35 quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. FPI views the Chargers as the sixth-best team in the NFL, and they have won 18 straight games as a favorite of at least six points. The only reason not to take them is that they have home games against the Oakland Raiders (Week 5) and Arizona Cardinals (Week 12) remaining on the schedule.
Line: Chargers -10.5 FPI chance to win: 76 percent Eliminator Challenge: 9 percent selected Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets The Jaguars are a strong pick this week, not only because they are the fourth-biggest FPI favorite, but also because this is the best chance to use the Jaguars for the rest of the season. They are no better than a 66 percent favorite in any other game on their schedule. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has struggled the last two weeks with a 24.6 Total QBR, and the Jaguars defense is as good as any in the NFL.
Line: Jaguars -7.5 FPI chance to win: 73 percent Eliminator Challenge: 19 percent selected Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills Yes, fading the Bills backfired in a big way last week. But even after adjusting for last week's upset, the Bills are still FPI's second-worst team. No team has won back-to-back regular-season games as a double-digit underdog since the 1995 Colts. And quarterback Aaron Rodgers has won 16 of his last 17 games as a favorite of nine points or more in non-divisional games. It's hard to see the Bills going on the road to beat the Packers, who are unbeaten in their last nine home games.
Line: Packers -10 FPI chance to win: 76 percent Eliminator Challenge: 31 percent selected Other options
Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings The Rams are 4.5 points better than any other team in the NFL on a neutral field, according to FPI, so they are a strong play almost every week. But they are the biggest FPI favorites on the board this week, and they are likely going to be around 5 percent picked. If the chalk Eliminator picks fail, this is a nice leverage play against the field. Mike Zimmer's Vikings teams are just 1-11 outright as an underdog of at least four points, and a West Coast trip on a short week makes this a tough spot for the Vikings.
Line: Rams -6.5 FPI chance to win: 80 percent Eliminator Challenge: 4 percent selected New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins While the Patriots have struggled lately and the Dolphins are 3-0, the Patriots have not lost three straight games since 2002. Coming back home, where the Patriots have won eight straight games including the playoffs, expect the Patriots to get back on track. There are two other games this season where they are even bigger favorites on paper, but they are Weeks 16 and 17, and typically by then other options will have emerged.
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Best Week 4 NFL Eliminator picks
Los Angeles Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets
Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
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