Betting on NFL dogs, halves and totals

By: Chance Harper


It won't officially be summer for another week. But that doesn't mean it's still too early to be setting our sights on autumn as gridiron gambling is just around the corner.

Basketball is done. Time to start thinking about football again.
Betting on NFL dogs, halves and totals

The NFL is without a doubt America’s national pastime, and that pastime is driven by billions of dollars exchanging hands in the form of wagers. These bets come in all shapes and sizes. You can bet on specific games, major awards such as league MVP, and who will eventually come out on top at Super Bowl XLII. The NFL’s betting marketplace is so immense, some bettors will specialize in one particular aspect of the sport. Here are three of those aspects.


UNDERDOGS

Sharp handicappers are always conscious about value. In the case of a football game, that value is often found in the dogs. Except in the rare event of a pick ‘em, every matchup has a favorite and an underdog. The betting public is often overly fond of the great teams; for example, the defending champion Indianapolis Colts went just 8-8 against the spread last year during the regular season. And while everyone loves an underdog, not everyone truly appreciates the quality these teams bring to the table. The Tennessee Titans won eight games last year, but went 11-5 ATS.

Bettors do quite well for themselves by fading teams like the Colts and supporting teams like the Titans. But there are only a baby-sized handful of elite teams, compared to a giant litter of puppies. Handicappers tap into this supply to come up with trend-based systems, picking underdogs in certain situations like playing at home, on the road, or being spotted a certain number of points. The more you narrow the parameters, the tastier the system will appear. How about this one: Home underdogs who are coming off a road loss and are getting more than seven points are 37-24-3 ATS over the past 10 years. The danger is that the system will be so narrow, and the sample size so small, that it doesn’t really correlate to current events.


HALVES

Volatility is another one of those terms you’ll hear bandied about in just about every marketplace, be it grocery store prices or the stock exchange. The shorter the period of time, the more volatile the market. Football is no exception. The Colts are almost a lock to have a winning season, but they can lose on any given Sunday. And it’s even more likely that they will be outscored in a single half.

Most books will post first-half lines for every matchup, as well as second-half lines almost immediately after the opening 30 minutes of play. There are a number of popular ways for bettors to jump in on the action. One of the best times to find value is at the half. Let’s say the Colts are favored by seven to beat the Titans, but are tied 14-14 going into the dressing room. A halftime line goes up: Indianapolis -6. That’s a significantly more forgiving line for Titans supporters than the seven points Indy was laying for the entire game.

TOTALS

Add up the number of points each team scores, and your total is called...the total. Not very imaginative, but a popular wager nonetheless. You can bet that a game will go either over or under the posted total.

Football is a contest of offense versus defense, and some teams are better at one than the other. But that doesn’t mean you bet the Over just because the Colts are playing. Everyone knows about Peyton Manning and the brilliant Indy offense, so the posted totals are already pretty high. The Over was dead even at 8-8 in Colts games last year.

Just as you’ll look for value when betting against the pointspread, you’ll want to find a team that the public doesn’t judge accurately. Consider Indy’s opponent at the Super Bowl, the Chicago Bears. Their defense was grabbing headlines across the nation (thanks in no small part to the popularity of Brian Urlacher), and the offense was sputtering somewhat under quarterback Rex Grossman. A solid Under bet? Hardly. Chicago had the best special teams in the NFL, with Devin Hester romping for six touchdowns. All those added points lifted the Over to a record of 11-4-1 when the Bears came out to play.

Whether you’re brand new to football betting, or your nickname is already 'The Handle,' developing your understanding of the finer points of handicapping is key to building a bankroll. And it sure beats flipping burgers. Here’s to a profitable 2007 season.