Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Total Score: Under 52, 1.961 on Pinnacle
1H Total Score: Under 25.5, 2.11 on Pinnacle
Player Props: Rob Kelley under 75.5 Rushing Yds, 1.88 on Crownbet
Stake: 1u each
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts Handicap: Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
1H Handicap: Pittsburgh Steelers -6, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Player Props: Antonio Brown over 102.5 Receiving Yards, 1.88 on Crownbet
Player Props: Jack Doyle under 39.5 Receiving Yards, 1.88 on Crownbet
Stake: 1u plays each
Pretty evened out Thanksgiving card, hurts losing that Vikings/Lions but more then made up for it with the other two, just need to continue it with the sunday plays + more.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Handicap: Baltimore Ravens -3.5, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1.5u play
With the Bengals pretty much out of the play-off race with their injuries and the Ravens still fighting for the division title, they'll want to keep afloat in the AFC North and have been playing better in the last few weeks. I expect Flacco to walk the walk with his 'should beaten Dallas' speech and prove Baltimore are worth respecting. I wonder if the Bengals 5 straight wins against the Ravens is a concern for bettors, for me, it isn't and i'll go with form here instead.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills Handicap: Buffalo Bills -7.5, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Gus Bradley's time in Jacksonville is a disaster, and should be expected to get fired at the end of the season. There is no 'salvaging wins' here, Buffalo is going to be too good even with a banged up Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy. Buffalo played well against the Bengals and Seahawks and I think they will try and continue their slight playoff push here.
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons Handicap: Arizona Cardinals +4.5, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Arizona Cardinals, 2.86 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u and 0.5u plays
Atlanta have a good offense but as Arizona showed when their offense is clicking they can score points as well. News also just came in that Trufant is out for the season with a torn pectoral so despite some concerns for the birds I think the Cards can keep up with the Falcons with their elite defense.
San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans Handicap: Houston Texans +2.5, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Houston Texans, 2.27 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u and 0.5u plays
Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders Handicap: Oakland Raiders -3.5, 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
A tough matchup to call but I think Oakland keeps rolling on. People are saying the Panthers should be better then what they are but they really aren't. Secondary has taken a backstep, a few injuries all around on the board including the defense. I expect Derek Carr to outduel Cam Newton here at home, where the Raiders picked apart the Broncos and put 30 on them.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Total Score: Under 48, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Would love to take the Jets line in that spot at home where their games are always so close but I think the under will be the better play if the Patriots get points and the Jets dont.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Handicap: Kansas City Chiefs +3.5, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs, 2.66 on Pinnacle
Total Score: Under 40 pts, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u, 1.5u and 1u plays
Broncos off a bye at home in the Denver thin air seem like a good bet to take, especially with how they have had a healthy winning record in recent times. But under a new QB with a struggling run game (which is a key part of Kubiak's offense) I think the Chiefs can potentially keep this close and match Denver. The Kansas questionables are listed to play and with Oakland winning against the Panthers this is a huge opportunity to take advantage of against a Broncos team who has struggled against division rivals so far this season
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles Total Score: Over 47 pts, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Handicap: Green Bay Packers +4, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Green Bay Packers, 2.71 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u, 1u, 0.5u plays
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings Handicap: Dallas Cowboys -3, 2.00 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys, 1.675, on Pinnacle - Stake: 2u play
Player Props: Jason Witten under 42.5 Rec Yds, 1.88 on Crownbet - Stake: 1u play
Player Props: Jerick McKinnon under 39.5 Rushing Yds, 1.88 on Crownbet: - Stake: 1u play
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars Handicap: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Team Total: Denver Broncos under 21.5 points, 1.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u plays
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals Handicap: Philadelphia Eagles +1, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Team Total: Cincinnati Bengals under 21.5, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u plays
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Handicap: Detroit Lions +7, 1.84 on Pinnacle
Total Score: Over 52, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u and 1u plays
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks Handicap: Carolina Panthers +8, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Carolina Panthers, 4.38 on Pinnacle
Player Props: Ted Ginn under 42.5 Receiving Yards, 1.88 on Crownbet
Player Props: Russell Wilson under 270.5 Passing Yds, 1.88 on Crownbet
Stake: 2u, 0.5u, 1u and 1u plays
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Handicap: Cincinnati Bengals -5.5, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1.5u play
The inverse theory about divisional games always worries me even with the Bengals road form but they have been alright the last few weeks while the Browns continue to get outplayed.
My worry is the Bengals playoff hopes are ideally as close as they get to being over so this game has less meaning but they should win by a TD or more. And it seems like the public see it that way and i'll agree with it this time.
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Handicap: Oakland Raiders +3.5, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Oakland Raiders, 2.78 on Pinnacle
Player Props: Tyreek Hill under 47.5 Receiving Yds, 1.88 on Crownbet
Stake: 2u, 1u and 1u plays
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Handicap: Indianapolis Colts -6.5, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
With the division up for grabs between 3 teams and the Titans playing the tough defense of Denver the Colts have a big opportunity to grab the division lead against the struggling Texans. Luck never looked better despite playing the Jets and I think he will continue the momentum this week as well.
Washington Redskins @ Philadephia Eagles Handicap: Washington Redskins -2, 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
With the Eagles more likely then not checking out of the season, I think Washington take advantage of their matchup with the Eagles to keep in with the Wildcard race and get closer to the Giants. The Eagles defense is just leaking too many points and the offense does not have the firepower to keep up with the Redskins offensive weapons.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys, 1.54 on Pinnacle
Player Props: Ezekiel Elliot over 92.5 rushing yds, 1.88 on Crownbet
Stake: 3u and 2u plays
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Handicap: Cincinnati Bengals +3, 2.08 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play
One of the lopsided plays on the board that I don't mind going the other way for. Pittsburgh have been in some what of a resurgance since their loss to Dallas at Heinz Field but despite being 4-3 on the road to date they beat the Colts with a backup QB and the winless Browns, so it is hardly a glowing endorsement.
I've seen enough from the Bengals to suggest this is a dangerous matchup for the Steelers on the road, especially considering they have improved their defense over the past month. Andy Dalton is more then capable of throwing a high percentage of passes against a doable Steelers defense and with a RB capable of rushing over 100yds the Bengals should keep this match more then competitive.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Handicap: Chicago Bears +4.5, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Since their embarrasing loss to the Buccs the Bears have played with some respectability covering against the Giants (2 weeks after beating the Vikings on primetime), Titans, 49ers and Lions. As hard as it has been for the Bears to stop Aaron Rodgers at Soldier Field the conditions are much different to the ones played in the Fall of Week 1 last year, they're expected to be freezing conditions and the Packers have gone back to being public after some poor form from Rodgers.
He has been limited in practice and will likely manage the pain again on Sunday. With a playoff spot still up for grabs with Green Bay but with the poor conditions I'm expecting the Bears to buck the trends on Sunday in this weather, and they're improved performances since they last played.
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills Team Total: Cleveland Browns under 14.5 pts, 1.826 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play
Since November the Browns offense has struggled mightly and they aren't playing a defense that will let up for two weeks in a row after having 27 points put on them by the Steelers. I don't know if I can favour Buffalo by 10 points but I don't think Cleveland will score more then 2 TDs worth of points.
Detroit Lions @ New York Giants Team Total: Detroit Lions over 17.5 Pts, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
The Giants had one of their better defensive games against the Cowboys on primetime but they were aided by a poor offensive display with several Cowboys receivers dropping catches they would normally make. The Lions offense has clicked since the first month of the season apart from the Thanksgiving match against the Vikings where they escaped with a last minute FG but against another good QB I expect the Lions to score points.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens Handicap: Baltimore Ravens -5.5, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Player Props: Ryan Matthews under 49.5 Rushing Yds, 1.88 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u plays
Ive got to side with the public's favouritism on the Ravens here at home playing against a poor road team in the Eagles. Even with the Eagles poor road form the injuries to their offensive line are a major worry to me as well as the continued exclusion of Sproles which means quite the workload for Matthews if they decide to run the ball more. With the Ravens excellent home form it's hard not to side with them here.
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Handicap: Atlanta Hawks -14, 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play
The Falcons are playing one of the worst teams in the NFL with a 2 TD line and I think Atlanta should pile on the points here even without Julio Jones. The 49ers defense just doesn't have the personnel to contain Matt Ryan no matter who he throws to.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Handicap: Denver Broncos +3, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Denver Broncos, 2.36 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u and 2u plays
Been eyeing off this game since the start of the year and especially in the last month. The Patriots have looked shaky against the Jets, Ravens and Seahawks and I have no worries the Broncos have been looking ahead to this matchup accepting the disappointment of losing to the Titans considering there could be a good chance they'll play the Patriots in the playoffs potentially.
I don't care what sort of form the Patriots have been in offensively and what sort of favouritism they have with the public and bettors I truly do believe Wade Phillips and the Broncos seem to be in Tom Brady's head.
Brady had to play the Legion of Boom with Gronk and he will have to play against an even deeper secondary without him and his blocking against the Broncos front line.
I don't believe the Patriots will do anything different even with some of the Broncos run struggles. In fact I think they will tighten it up and aim big for this matchup. And I don't expect the Broncos to drop back to back matches especially since losing to the Chiefs at home even considering they are playing the Patriots.
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers Handicap: Oakland Raiders -2.5, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers Handicap: Pittsburgh Steelers -13, 2.11 on Pinnacle
1H Handicap: Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5, 2.10 on Pinnacle
Total Score: Over 46, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Team Total: Pittsburgh Steelers over 28.5, 1.847 on Pinnacle
Player Props: Ben Roethlisberger over 279.5, 1.88 on Crownbet
Stake: 2u each
Superbowl LI: New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons Handicap: New England Patriots -3 , 2.00 on Pinnacle So this year's SuperBowl is featuring (call them whatever you want) but they are the dynasty of the New England Patriots up against the Atlanta Falcons who have been good enough but never close enough. Well up until a few years ago when they made the NFC Championship game but fell short to the brutal defense of the San Francisco 49ers. The story paints a picture of two QBs still playing with a chip on their shoulder, with a point to prove playing two magnificent seasons and both up for MVP candidate discussions in both the Superbowl and the regular season.
It's been an offense heavy Championship Games for both the NFC and the AFC and Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. As they say defense wins Superbowls, and while Matt Ryan has been pretty freakin' great this season, even at times playing with banged up receivers and players such as Julio Jones I have to side with the New England Patriots to win the Superbowl. As of now you can get the line of -3 on Pinnacle @ 2.00 and I recommend taking that. A lot of the years the underdog has been the victor in the Superbowl going back to when the Giants defense stopped the Patriots for the 2nd time in four years but I think if anything the Patriots may be a little underestimated in their run because they are doing it without Rob Gronkowski as impressive as that is to begin with.
Even with that said there is not much of a big difference between the offenses, although the Falcons have better weapons, but the Patriots have more versatile weapons which will keep the Falcons defensive coaches guessing all game. The Patriots have a better defense then the Falcons. it'll be a notable difference when your receivers are covered by McCourty, Logan Ryan, and Malcolm Butler, as opposed to 2nd tier practice squad players you'll find playing for GB in the pre-season let alone a playoffs game, and that goes for the offensive side of the receivers as well. But it's not just a matter of the defense making plays and stops it's the offense keeping the opposition offense off the field. Which is exactly how the Patriots have played the Steelers today. My worries stem on Matt Ryan. First Superbowl...up against Tom Brady, 7th Superbowl. Teams and their playbooks always have something a little extra for the opposition QBs when against them. We all saw how Cam Newton was shut down in the Superbowl after seemingly rolling through the NFC looking almost unstoppable. And that's how many public/square/mug bettors saw Carolina and thought they'd do the same thing again.
I think that may be a little how it pans out in two weeks time. He should be able to score points, but scoring 30-40 is difficult enough as it is when you are playing against a defense that is healthy this time around, compared to their previous opponents. It should be a great match but with Brady's time fading and the Patriots routinely knowing how these sorts of big games get done it's hard not to back against them.
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