MNF Week 8: Commanders vs Chiefs Picks

[SBR Andy]

The final game on the Week 8 slate features Washington and Kansas City at 8:15 PM ET on ABC/ESPN. SBR's Gary Pearson breaks down the action in his Commanders vs Chiefs prediction:

Over/Under pick: Over 47.5 (-115 via FanDuel)

Game prediction: Chiefs -11.5 (-108 via DraftKings)

"For the Commanders, playing the Chiefs at Arrowhead at this juncture of the season represents a nightmare matchup.

Not only is Jayden Daniels unavailable due to injury, but they are facing a defense that allowed more than 300 yards of total offense just once in four home games, against a Baltimore Ravens team that accumulated a chunk of its yards after the game had long been decided.

In addition, Steve Spagnuolo's defense hasn't conceded more than 20 points at Arrowhead.

If the Chiefs' defense is hot, their offense, led by NFL MVP odds favorite Patrick Mahomes, is scalding. In terms of offensive DVOA and EPA per play, they rank second. The unit accumulated at least 355 total yards in four straight games, averaging 412.

That's bottom-of-the-barrel news for a Commanders defense that has allowed at least 336 yards of total offense in six straight games, averaging 386.5 in that stint.

The Chiefs' margin of victory at Arrowhead during their current three-game win streak is 20.3."


Player prop bet: Rashee Rice Over 66.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM)

"Rice has one game under his belt this season, in which he caught seven passes on 10 targets against the Las Vegas Raiders. Usually, you'd expect more than 42 receiving yards in that scenario.

Still, the number of times Mahomes targeted him is telling, and I expect more of the same against a Commanders secondary that allows the seventh-most yards per game to opposing wide receivers (161.43).

That unit allowed 192 receiving yards last week in Dallas to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Mahomes spread the ball well last week, connecting with nine receivers. While I expect him to vary his targets similarly, he should look to involve Rice as much in the offense as he did last week."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Esten McLaren shares his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Monday Night Football:

Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs (+160 via FanDuel)

"Xavier Worthy turned in just 35 yards while catching three of four targets during last week's 31-0 win for the Chiefs. Wide receiver Rashee Rice was the star against the Las Vegas Raiders, and Gary Pearson expects him to play a significant role again tonight with his Commanders vs. Chiefs prediction. But Worthy still led the team's position group while being on the field for 59% of the snaps in the rout.

Now another potential blowout is coming, with the Chiefs up to being 11.5-point favorites in the Monday Night Football odds. The Over/Under of 48.5 gives the Chiefs an implied team total of 29 points. I'll count on Worthy's usage and big-play ability against a Commanders defense that's allowed receivers to score seven touchdowns through seven weeks while averaging 8.90 yards per target."


Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders (+300 via FanDuel)

"Terry McLaurin returns to the lineup for the first time since Sept. 21, the day of a 41-24 Commanders win over the Raiders in Week 3. While he didn't score a touchdown through three games, he was averaging 14.9 yards per reception and had caught 10 of 17 targets.

McLaurin will be working with backup QB Marcus Mariota tonight, with an injury forcing Jayden Daniels to sit out again. The veteran has logged three touchdown passes through two starts while completing 60.3% of his pass attempts and averaging 7.3 yards per attempt across parts of three games.

The Chiefs boast one of the NFL's better pass defenses, but the lopsided spread and likely game script should force Mariota to the air for almost the entire evening. The +300 odds from FanDuel on this anytime touchdown scorer prediction would return an extra $3 in profit on a winning $10 bet compared to the +270 odds from Caesars.

FanDuel is also posting the best odds of +550 for McLaurin to score a second-half touchdown, when this game could potentially get very ugly."


Noah Gray, TE, Chiefs (+400 via DraftKings)

"It's a little strange to see Gray without a touchdown this season after he scored a career-high five last year. He's played between 56% and 75% of the team's offensive snaps in every game since Week 1, so the opportunity has certainly been there.

He caught his lone target for a 28-yard gain during last week's win over the Raiders. A similar game script against the Commanders could result in Gray playing an expanded role, with Travis Kelce receiving more rest in the second half. He caught his lone red-zone target of the campaign to date, and the Chiefs should be making several trips to the goal line tonight."