NFC and 'over' top Pro Bowl betting
With nary a player from the Saints and Colts rosters, and minus some of the top quarterbacks, the NFL gives us the Pro Bowl this Sunday in Miami, with the NFC and 'over' the early bets.
What do you mean there’s no football this Sunday? You’ve forgotten about the Pro Bowl, haven’t you?
That’s okay, you’re in good company. The NFL’s version of the All-Star Game hasn’t just taken a backseat to Super Bowl XLIV – it’s been stuffed into the trunk. This is the first year the Pro Bowl is being held in the week between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl.
The Pro Bowl has also moved from the iconic Aloha Bowl in Honolulu to the former Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami, home of this year’s Big Game between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts. It’s a whole new ballgame for us to figure out.
Let’s start with the betting odds. The NFC has opened as a two-point favorite and moved to 2 ½ points at a number of books as of Thursday morning. The total has dropped from 58 ½ points to 56 ½, even while consensus reports have the 'over' pulling in 85 percent support. This is typically a high-scoring affair; the final score added up to at least 57 points in seven of the last 10 Pro Bowls.
But again, those were different times. One of the drawbacks of the new system is that none of the players from the two Super Bowl teams is allowed to participate. No Peyton Manning, no Drew Brees.
Also, no Brett Favre, Tom Brady or Philip Rivers, all of whom are giving the Pro Bowl a pass because of injuries. Here are the three quarterbacks (as we go to press) for each conference.
NFC
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers 30 TD, seven INT, 103.2 passer rating
Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles 22 TD, 10 INT, 92.9 rating
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys 26 TD, nine INT, 97.6 rating
AFC
Matt Schaub, Houston Texans 29 TD, 15 INT, 98.6 rating
Vince Young, Tennessee Titans 10 TD, seven INT, 82.8 rating
David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars 15 TD, 10 INT, 83.5 rating
The AFC took a huge hit in QB talent – did I fail to mention that Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer also turned down Pro Bowl invitations as alternates? It’s true. That leaves the AFC relying on Young and Garrard, both very good players, but neither a threat to be mistaken for Tom Brady.
The stat-meisters at Football Outsiders concur. They have Schaub listed as the best QB in the Pro Bowl based on their Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric, which measures a QB’s value per play. Schaub ranks sixth, followed by Young at No. 14 and Garrard at No. 23, a below-average QB by this standard.
Romo leads the NFC with the seventh-best DVOA in the league, followed by Rodgers in ninth and McNabb checking in above average at No. 20. Rodgers also adds to his value as the No. 3 running QB in the league this year measured by DVOA, well ahead of Garrard at No. 16 and Young at a surprisingly immobile No. 25.
If the AFC is to overcome this disadvantage and win its ninth Pro Bowl in the last 14 years, it’ll have to take advantage of the familiarity between the alternate QBs and the tailbacks. Tennessee’s Chris Johnson (5.6 yards per carry) and Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew (4.5 yards) were both named to the AFC squad; Rodgers, meanwhile, has none of his Packer teammates to play with him, not even on the offensive line.
This hasn’t deterred intrepid bettors from laying wood on the NFC at a 90 percent clip according to the consensus reports. This is an exhibition game, and the quality of the quarterbacks will be emphasized as the violence level is toned down.
Handicappers should treat this game in much the same manner as they would during the preseason. All three quarterbacks will play; we may even see two of them on the field at once as the teams try out variations of the Wildcat offense. It’s going to be a fun game, so bet accordingly.
With nary a player from the Saints and Colts rosters, and minus some of the top quarterbacks, the NFL gives us the Pro Bowl this Sunday in Miami, with the NFC and 'over' the early bets.
What do you mean there’s no football this Sunday? You’ve forgotten about the Pro Bowl, haven’t you?
That’s okay, you’re in good company. The NFL’s version of the All-Star Game hasn’t just taken a backseat to Super Bowl XLIV – it’s been stuffed into the trunk. This is the first year the Pro Bowl is being held in the week between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl.
The Pro Bowl has also moved from the iconic Aloha Bowl in Honolulu to the former Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami, home of this year’s Big Game between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts. It’s a whole new ballgame for us to figure out.
Let’s start with the betting odds. The NFC has opened as a two-point favorite and moved to 2 ½ points at a number of books as of Thursday morning. The total has dropped from 58 ½ points to 56 ½, even while consensus reports have the 'over' pulling in 85 percent support. This is typically a high-scoring affair; the final score added up to at least 57 points in seven of the last 10 Pro Bowls.
But again, those were different times. One of the drawbacks of the new system is that none of the players from the two Super Bowl teams is allowed to participate. No Peyton Manning, no Drew Brees.
Also, no Brett Favre, Tom Brady or Philip Rivers, all of whom are giving the Pro Bowl a pass because of injuries. Here are the three quarterbacks (as we go to press) for each conference.
NFC
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers 30 TD, seven INT, 103.2 passer rating
Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles 22 TD, 10 INT, 92.9 rating
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys 26 TD, nine INT, 97.6 rating
AFC
Matt Schaub, Houston Texans 29 TD, 15 INT, 98.6 rating
Vince Young, Tennessee Titans 10 TD, seven INT, 82.8 rating
David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars 15 TD, 10 INT, 83.5 rating
The AFC took a huge hit in QB talent – did I fail to mention that Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer also turned down Pro Bowl invitations as alternates? It’s true. That leaves the AFC relying on Young and Garrard, both very good players, but neither a threat to be mistaken for Tom Brady.
The stat-meisters at Football Outsiders concur. They have Schaub listed as the best QB in the Pro Bowl based on their Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric, which measures a QB’s value per play. Schaub ranks sixth, followed by Young at No. 14 and Garrard at No. 23, a below-average QB by this standard.
Romo leads the NFC with the seventh-best DVOA in the league, followed by Rodgers in ninth and McNabb checking in above average at No. 20. Rodgers also adds to his value as the No. 3 running QB in the league this year measured by DVOA, well ahead of Garrard at No. 16 and Young at a surprisingly immobile No. 25.
If the AFC is to overcome this disadvantage and win its ninth Pro Bowl in the last 14 years, it’ll have to take advantage of the familiarity between the alternate QBs and the tailbacks. Tennessee’s Chris Johnson (5.6 yards per carry) and Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew (4.5 yards) were both named to the AFC squad; Rodgers, meanwhile, has none of his Packer teammates to play with him, not even on the offensive line.
This hasn’t deterred intrepid bettors from laying wood on the NFC at a 90 percent clip according to the consensus reports. This is an exhibition game, and the quality of the quarterbacks will be emphasized as the violence level is toned down.
Handicappers should treat this game in much the same manner as they would during the preseason. All three quarterbacks will play; we may even see two of them on the field at once as the teams try out variations of the Wildcat offense. It’s going to be a fun game, so bet accordingly.
