By Mike Chappell & Mike Preston
For Sporting News
Colts QB Peyton Manning earned a record fourth MVP award last week. The magnitude of that could lessen if he's unable to lead his teammates past the Ravens on Saturday night.
The Colts hardly are a one-man show, but Manning is the offensive catalyst who sets the tone. Despite his presence, the franchise has lost its first playoff game in six of its nine appearances since his arrival in 1998. Another one-and-done would be tough for the organization, and city, to stomach.
The organization eschewed perfection during the regular season to focus on being as healthy as possible for postseason. After directing the team to a 14-0 start, coach Jim Caldwell infuriated a large portion of the team's fan base by limiting the playing time of Manning and other front-line players in closing losses to the Jets and Bills. If the team comes out rusty or flat and fails to advance despite being rested and healthy, Colts fans will scream loud and long. The chess match between Manning and Ravens inside linebacker Ray Lewis always is worth the price of admission. Manning is an expert at making pre-snap reads and adjustments. Lewis prides himself on matching wits with Manning. The game's outcome might come down to who is able to guess right the most.
Ravens Keys For Success
1. Run up the gut. The Ravens must run directly at the Colts. Indianapolis has too much speed to be beaten on the perimeter. Big offensive tackles Michael Oher and Jared Gaither should allow the team to run directly at the Colts' lightweight defensive line, especially Pro Bowl ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. If the Ravens run effectively early, that would force the Colts to put one or both safeties near the box and out of their comfortable cover-2 zone. That's when the passing game will succeed.
2. Blitz Manning. The blitzes should come up the middle, not off the perimeter. Manning and New England QB Tom Brady aren't bothered by outside pressure because they can adjust and sidestep those blitzes without difficulty. But both Manning and Brady have trouble with blitzes up the middle because opponents get in their face quickly. Last week against Brady, the Ravens had great success by blitzing outside linebackers up the middle. Expect more of the same Saturday night against Manning. 3. Score early. The Ravens can play with the Colts�and should have beaten them Nov. 22. In the past, the Colts haven't played well following a bye in the playoffs. They Ravens must score early, and plant that seed of doubt again. Also, the Ravens are playing with a lot of confidence and an early touchdown would allow that to grow.
Colts Keys For Success
1. Make the Ravens one-dimensional. And that one dimension is throwing the ball. Baltimore ran over New England last week�234 yards on 52 carries. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee combined for 221 yards on 42 carries. Colts defensive coordinator Larry Coyer's front seven must limit the damage by swarming to the ball. The return of linebacker Clint Session and safety Melvin Bullitt are huge plusses. Against Baltimore in Week 11, the Colts limited the Ravens to 98 yards on 31 rushes. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is dealing with a hip injury and is immobile. Make him, not Rice or McGahee, win the game.
2. Protect and produce. The Colts are virtually unbeatable when Manning runs an error-free offense. They've won 25 consecutive regular-season games when not turning the ball over. That streak includes four wins over the opportunistic Ravens. The Colts' offense, though, had three turnovers against Baltimore in November, including two Manning interceptions. That allowed the Ravens to hang around and necessitated a late-game stop by the defense to secure the win. Lewis, safety Ed Reed and the rest of the defense will force the issue. Manning must remain patient and capitalize when big-play opportunities are presented. 3. Win without Adam Vinatieri. Arguably the best kicker in NFL history, Vinatieri still isn't 100 percent after October arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. The Colts will rely on Matt Stover, the Ravens' career scoring and field-goal leader. If the Ravens' defense stiffens or the Colts' offense falters, it will be imperative for Stover to finish drives with field goals. In November's 17-15 Colts win over the Ravens, he delivered the winning margin in the fourth quarter with a 25-yard field goal. Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff accounted for all of his team's scoring with five field goals in November but missed a 30-yarder. The importance of knocking down field goals was most evident when the Colts beat the Ravens in Baltimore in a 2006 playoffs. Vinatieri delivered all of their scoring in a 15-6 win.
The Bottom Line
The building will be rocking and the pressure will be on for Manning and the No. 1-seeded Colts. And there will be no excuses. Caldwell's decision to ease up in the final two regular-season games produced the desired results: his team is rested and healthy. Even if it takes the Colts a series or two to regain their rhythm on both sides of the ball after the bye, they'll find it and do more than enough, especially offensively, to dismiss the Ravens. Barring another 200-yard rushing performance by Rice and McGahee, the Colts move on.
Scoring prediction: Ravens 17 - Colts 24
For Sporting News
Colts QB Peyton Manning earned a record fourth MVP award last week. The magnitude of that could lessen if he's unable to lead his teammates past the Ravens on Saturday night.
The Colts hardly are a one-man show, but Manning is the offensive catalyst who sets the tone. Despite his presence, the franchise has lost its first playoff game in six of its nine appearances since his arrival in 1998. Another one-and-done would be tough for the organization, and city, to stomach.
The organization eschewed perfection during the regular season to focus on being as healthy as possible for postseason. After directing the team to a 14-0 start, coach Jim Caldwell infuriated a large portion of the team's fan base by limiting the playing time of Manning and other front-line players in closing losses to the Jets and Bills. If the team comes out rusty or flat and fails to advance despite being rested and healthy, Colts fans will scream loud and long. The chess match between Manning and Ravens inside linebacker Ray Lewis always is worth the price of admission. Manning is an expert at making pre-snap reads and adjustments. Lewis prides himself on matching wits with Manning. The game's outcome might come down to who is able to guess right the most.
Ravens Keys For Success
1. Run up the gut. The Ravens must run directly at the Colts. Indianapolis has too much speed to be beaten on the perimeter. Big offensive tackles Michael Oher and Jared Gaither should allow the team to run directly at the Colts' lightweight defensive line, especially Pro Bowl ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. If the Ravens run effectively early, that would force the Colts to put one or both safeties near the box and out of their comfortable cover-2 zone. That's when the passing game will succeed.
2. Blitz Manning. The blitzes should come up the middle, not off the perimeter. Manning and New England QB Tom Brady aren't bothered by outside pressure because they can adjust and sidestep those blitzes without difficulty. But both Manning and Brady have trouble with blitzes up the middle because opponents get in their face quickly. Last week against Brady, the Ravens had great success by blitzing outside linebackers up the middle. Expect more of the same Saturday night against Manning. 3. Score early. The Ravens can play with the Colts�and should have beaten them Nov. 22. In the past, the Colts haven't played well following a bye in the playoffs. They Ravens must score early, and plant that seed of doubt again. Also, the Ravens are playing with a lot of confidence and an early touchdown would allow that to grow.
Colts Keys For Success
1. Make the Ravens one-dimensional. And that one dimension is throwing the ball. Baltimore ran over New England last week�234 yards on 52 carries. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee combined for 221 yards on 42 carries. Colts defensive coordinator Larry Coyer's front seven must limit the damage by swarming to the ball. The return of linebacker Clint Session and safety Melvin Bullitt are huge plusses. Against Baltimore in Week 11, the Colts limited the Ravens to 98 yards on 31 rushes. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is dealing with a hip injury and is immobile. Make him, not Rice or McGahee, win the game.
2. Protect and produce. The Colts are virtually unbeatable when Manning runs an error-free offense. They've won 25 consecutive regular-season games when not turning the ball over. That streak includes four wins over the opportunistic Ravens. The Colts' offense, though, had three turnovers against Baltimore in November, including two Manning interceptions. That allowed the Ravens to hang around and necessitated a late-game stop by the defense to secure the win. Lewis, safety Ed Reed and the rest of the defense will force the issue. Manning must remain patient and capitalize when big-play opportunities are presented. 3. Win without Adam Vinatieri. Arguably the best kicker in NFL history, Vinatieri still isn't 100 percent after October arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. The Colts will rely on Matt Stover, the Ravens' career scoring and field-goal leader. If the Ravens' defense stiffens or the Colts' offense falters, it will be imperative for Stover to finish drives with field goals. In November's 17-15 Colts win over the Ravens, he delivered the winning margin in the fourth quarter with a 25-yard field goal. Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff accounted for all of his team's scoring with five field goals in November but missed a 30-yarder. The importance of knocking down field goals was most evident when the Colts beat the Ravens in Baltimore in a 2006 playoffs. Vinatieri delivered all of their scoring in a 15-6 win.
The Bottom Line
The building will be rocking and the pressure will be on for Manning and the No. 1-seeded Colts. And there will be no excuses. Caldwell's decision to ease up in the final two regular-season games produced the desired results: his team is rested and healthy. Even if it takes the Colts a series or two to regain their rhythm on both sides of the ball after the bye, they'll find it and do more than enough, especially offensively, to dismiss the Ravens. Barring another 200-yard rushing performance by Rice and McGahee, the Colts move on.
Scoring prediction: Ravens 17 - Colts 24