Cowboys, Eagles meet again in first round of playoffs
Three of the four matches in the first round of the NFL playoffs are replays from the Week 17 regular season schedule, starting with the Jets, Bengals and Cowboys, Eagles on Saturday.
One of the eternal debates about handicapping is how important recent results are compared to a full season of data. It’s a debate that’s sure to come up again this week, because both of Saturday’s NFL Wild Card games are rematches from Week 17. Coincidence?
New York Jets at Cincinnati (-4, 36)
Saturday, Jan 9 - 4:30 p.m. (ET) NBC
Definitely not a coincidence for Saturday’s opener. As many football pundits (and players) expected, the Cincinnati Bengals (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS) didn’t go out there and give it 100 percent against the New York Jets (9-7 SU and ATS) on Sunday, losing 37-0.
It was known going into Week 17 that the Bengals could force a rematch with the Jets in the Wild Card game (4:30 p.m. ET, NBC) by losing their regular season finale. This is why Cincinnati was a 9 ½-point road dog on Sunday. Conveniently enough, the early betting odds for the Wild Card game were up on the board well before Sunday’s contest was over.
Why would the Bengals open the playoff door for the Jets? One, it gave Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis and his staff a free look at New York, who needed the victory to make the postseason and played like it. Two, the Jets are vulnerable behind rookie QB Mark Sanchez, who finished the season with 12 touchdown throws, 20 interceptions and a passer rating of 63.2. That’s comparable to fellow rookie Matthew Stafford (13 TDs, 20 INTs, 61.0 passer rating) with the 2-14 Detroit Lions.
Cincinnati made all this possible by resting RB Cedric Benson (4.2 yards per carry) and then pulling QB Carson Palmer (21 TDs, 12 INTs, 86.3 passer rating) in the third quarter with the Jets already up big.
The Bengals also had a bit of a slip-up – literally – when WR Chad Ochocinco’s feet went out from under him during the pregame warmup at chilly Giants Stadium. Ochocinco had zero catches and left the game after the first half with a sore left knee, but he says he’s “absolutely” going to play Saturday.
All well and good, but according to the advanced stats at Football Outsiders, the Jets were actually the better team during the regular season. They ranked No. 13 in overall efficiency going into the finale, led by the best defense in the NFL and strong special teams. Cincinnati was No. 17 in efficiency, again with defense leading the way at No. 12.
And that defense lost promising tackle Pat Sims (6-foot-2, 325 pounds) to a broken forearm in Week 17. Even worse, safety Tom Nelson (left knee) is uncertain after leaving Sunday’s game at the half. Make sure to check the postmortem on this weekend’s action to see who’s available for the Wild Card game.
Philadelphia at Dallas (-4½, 45½)
Saturday, Jan 9 - 8:00 p.m. (ET) NBC
This probably isn’t what the Eagles (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) had in mind going into their season finale against the Cowboys (also 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS). But Philadelphia put up a bagel anyway in a 24-0 loss at Cowboys Stadium, handing the No. 2 seed and the first-round bye to the Minnesota Vikings while letting Dallas into the playoffs with the NFC East title.
The Cowboys have now beaten the Eagles twice this year, home and away, allowing stud WR DeSean Jackson (60 receptions, nine TDs) to make just five catches in total.
The Eagles didn’t treat Sunday’s game like a preseason contest, either. They were simply snuffed out by an active Dallas defense that has improved over the second half of the season; the Cowboys are the first NFL team to post back-to-back shutouts since the 13-3 Tennessee Titans pulled off the trick in 2000. Philadelphia was held to 37 yards on 10 carries, and QB Tony Romo delivered a pair of TD strikes in the first half to set the tone offensively.
Dallas might have given a complete performance Saturday, but bettors are a little more pessimistic about the playoffs. There was enough action on the Eagles in the first few hours after the open to move the Cowboys to -3½ at several books. Philadelphia was the No. 1 team in the efficiency rankings going into Week 17; Dallas was No. 6.
Romo appeared to be in some discomfort after Sunday’s game after taking some punishment late in the game. Again, check the injury reports for the Wild Card matchup (8:00 p.m. ET, NBC) and bet accordingly.
Three of the four matches in the first round of the NFL playoffs are replays from the Week 17 regular season schedule, starting with the Jets, Bengals and Cowboys, Eagles on Saturday.
One of the eternal debates about handicapping is how important recent results are compared to a full season of data. It’s a debate that’s sure to come up again this week, because both of Saturday’s NFL Wild Card games are rematches from Week 17. Coincidence?
New York Jets at Cincinnati (-4, 36)
Saturday, Jan 9 - 4:30 p.m. (ET) NBC
Definitely not a coincidence for Saturday’s opener. As many football pundits (and players) expected, the Cincinnati Bengals (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS) didn’t go out there and give it 100 percent against the New York Jets (9-7 SU and ATS) on Sunday, losing 37-0.
It was known going into Week 17 that the Bengals could force a rematch with the Jets in the Wild Card game (4:30 p.m. ET, NBC) by losing their regular season finale. This is why Cincinnati was a 9 ½-point road dog on Sunday. Conveniently enough, the early betting odds for the Wild Card game were up on the board well before Sunday’s contest was over.
Why would the Bengals open the playoff door for the Jets? One, it gave Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis and his staff a free look at New York, who needed the victory to make the postseason and played like it. Two, the Jets are vulnerable behind rookie QB Mark Sanchez, who finished the season with 12 touchdown throws, 20 interceptions and a passer rating of 63.2. That’s comparable to fellow rookie Matthew Stafford (13 TDs, 20 INTs, 61.0 passer rating) with the 2-14 Detroit Lions.
Cincinnati made all this possible by resting RB Cedric Benson (4.2 yards per carry) and then pulling QB Carson Palmer (21 TDs, 12 INTs, 86.3 passer rating) in the third quarter with the Jets already up big.
The Bengals also had a bit of a slip-up – literally – when WR Chad Ochocinco’s feet went out from under him during the pregame warmup at chilly Giants Stadium. Ochocinco had zero catches and left the game after the first half with a sore left knee, but he says he’s “absolutely” going to play Saturday.
All well and good, but according to the advanced stats at Football Outsiders, the Jets were actually the better team during the regular season. They ranked No. 13 in overall efficiency going into the finale, led by the best defense in the NFL and strong special teams. Cincinnati was No. 17 in efficiency, again with defense leading the way at No. 12.
And that defense lost promising tackle Pat Sims (6-foot-2, 325 pounds) to a broken forearm in Week 17. Even worse, safety Tom Nelson (left knee) is uncertain after leaving Sunday’s game at the half. Make sure to check the postmortem on this weekend’s action to see who’s available for the Wild Card game.
Philadelphia at Dallas (-4½, 45½)
Saturday, Jan 9 - 8:00 p.m. (ET) NBC
This probably isn’t what the Eagles (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) had in mind going into their season finale against the Cowboys (also 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS). But Philadelphia put up a bagel anyway in a 24-0 loss at Cowboys Stadium, handing the No. 2 seed and the first-round bye to the Minnesota Vikings while letting Dallas into the playoffs with the NFC East title.
The Cowboys have now beaten the Eagles twice this year, home and away, allowing stud WR DeSean Jackson (60 receptions, nine TDs) to make just five catches in total.
The Eagles didn’t treat Sunday’s game like a preseason contest, either. They were simply snuffed out by an active Dallas defense that has improved over the second half of the season; the Cowboys are the first NFL team to post back-to-back shutouts since the 13-3 Tennessee Titans pulled off the trick in 2000. Philadelphia was held to 37 yards on 10 carries, and QB Tony Romo delivered a pair of TD strikes in the first half to set the tone offensively.
Dallas might have given a complete performance Saturday, but bettors are a little more pessimistic about the playoffs. There was enough action on the Eagles in the first few hours after the open to move the Cowboys to -3½ at several books. Philadelphia was the No. 1 team in the efficiency rankings going into Week 17; Dallas was No. 6.
Romo appeared to be in some discomfort after Sunday’s game after taking some punishment late in the game. Again, check the injury reports for the Wild Card matchup (8:00 p.m. ET, NBC) and bet accordingly.
