After-Christmas Sale... It's the Colts again.
However natural it may seem to be emboldened by our recent good fortune in predicting that San Diego would be "Charging ahead on Christmas Night" (See our posting under Handicapper Think Tank), we are reminded that sports forecasting is, after all, a matter of probabilities. So, let's look ahead to Sunday's action to see what the probabilities say about after-Christmas sales at the sportsbooks.
In terms of straight-up probabilities, our models suggest that Cincinnati has a 0.859 probability of beating Kansas City, Arizona a 0.841 probability of beating St. Louis, Green Bay a 0.788 probability of defeating Seattle, and Atlanta a 0.690 probability over Buffalo. But against the spread, all of these plays turn in favor of the dogs.
New England has a 0.766 probability of defeating Jacksonville straight up, and this appears to be a reasonable betting opportunity. Early Wednesday evening when we checked the lines, most had the Pats a -7.5 favorite. This looked like a good bet. One hundred dollars on New England was expected to offer a reasonable return ($5.13). But now on Saturday morning many books have moved to less attractive positions. One hundred dollars on the Patriots at -8 brings is cause for little celebration (the expected value of a $100 bet is only $1.11). And a few books have moved to -9, which is a no-win situation on both sides of the line. Forget the Pats, unless, by shopping the line, you can find a lazy bookmaker who hasn't moved off the initial -7.5.
This brings us to the one betting opportunity of real value on Sunday.... It's the Colts over the hapless Jets at -5.5. Really? Do they mean -5.5 with the Colts at home? We ran ten thousand simulations of this game and found that the Colts beat the Jets 76.6 percent of the time. Against the spread, that 0.766 probability moves down, of course, but not so much to suggest that the Colts would be a bad bet. In fact, against the spread the Colts have a 0.575 probability of beating the Jets. This means that betting $100 on the Indianapolis Colts can be expected to net us $9.76---we'll take that for a one-day return on investment.
Is there any reason to doubt that the undefeated Colts will end their winning ways this Sunday? Injuries are a problem. The Colts have two wide receivers out this week and a host of doubtfuls, questionables, and probables across a variety of positions. New York, on the other hand, has only seven players with listed injuries, and all of these are listed as probable for this week. Of course, one of those probables is rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. Perhaps it is injuries that explain the spread, or perhaps the Jets are just as good with Sanchez on the sideline. We wonder. And then there's Peyton Manning. Does he really need those two injured wide receivers in particular, or can he hit almost anyone who happens to run in the right direction? We'll go with Manning.
That's the word for Sunday. Hope all of our post-Christmas dreams come true.
In terms of straight-up probabilities, our models suggest that Cincinnati has a 0.859 probability of beating Kansas City, Arizona a 0.841 probability of beating St. Louis, Green Bay a 0.788 probability of defeating Seattle, and Atlanta a 0.690 probability over Buffalo. But against the spread, all of these plays turn in favor of the dogs.
New England has a 0.766 probability of defeating Jacksonville straight up, and this appears to be a reasonable betting opportunity. Early Wednesday evening when we checked the lines, most had the Pats a -7.5 favorite. This looked like a good bet. One hundred dollars on New England was expected to offer a reasonable return ($5.13). But now on Saturday morning many books have moved to less attractive positions. One hundred dollars on the Patriots at -8 brings is cause for little celebration (the expected value of a $100 bet is only $1.11). And a few books have moved to -9, which is a no-win situation on both sides of the line. Forget the Pats, unless, by shopping the line, you can find a lazy bookmaker who hasn't moved off the initial -7.5.
This brings us to the one betting opportunity of real value on Sunday.... It's the Colts over the hapless Jets at -5.5. Really? Do they mean -5.5 with the Colts at home? We ran ten thousand simulations of this game and found that the Colts beat the Jets 76.6 percent of the time. Against the spread, that 0.766 probability moves down, of course, but not so much to suggest that the Colts would be a bad bet. In fact, against the spread the Colts have a 0.575 probability of beating the Jets. This means that betting $100 on the Indianapolis Colts can be expected to net us $9.76---we'll take that for a one-day return on investment.
Is there any reason to doubt that the undefeated Colts will end their winning ways this Sunday? Injuries are a problem. The Colts have two wide receivers out this week and a host of doubtfuls, questionables, and probables across a variety of positions. New York, on the other hand, has only seven players with listed injuries, and all of these are listed as probable for this week. Of course, one of those probables is rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. Perhaps it is injuries that explain the spread, or perhaps the Jets are just as good with Sanchez on the sideline. We wonder. And then there's Peyton Manning. Does he really need those two injured wide receivers in particular, or can he hit almost anyone who happens to run in the right direction? We'll go with Manning.
That's the word for Sunday. Hope all of our post-Christmas dreams come true.
