-
Comment -
i changed my mind one hr before gametime...i said to myself,what the **** are you thinking,sd is going to the superbowl this year,and your gona go against them....i saved myself some good coin...ten was just a mirage of a contender with a hell of a rb....nice call with your teaser 2dabank,Comment -
ok guys lets get off brakon...more than likely you wont see him for a week or 2 then he will be back with more "locks of the century" or some shit acting like this never happened and all he does is pick winners..seems to be his mo the sad thing is he comes out screamin "lock" and posted ridiculous monopoly money wagers then some poor guy who just signed up believes the shit he is spewing....there is a lesson here dont ever blindly tail any1 its your money...there plenty of good guys here that know there shit and it doesnt take long to tell who they are and there are plenty of attention seeking whore's who want a audience and will do whatever to get your attention cause they have issues...so lets just get back 2 football talk and pretend this guy doesnt exist as that is all im really here to do is share thoughts and opinions on these gms in a effort to put together the best card possible and do what every1 should be trying to do get this money
Comment -
im with you on philly,den has zero offense and royal is out,also like gb....i also leaning nyg,they have min next week,so im thinking they focus on this game and get it doneComment -
nyg -7....ive been bouncing this game around my brain for some time this week and really what it comes down to is which nyg defense i believe is the real 1? hard for me to base a lot off last mondays performance as wash didnt look to have much interest in the gm...however the whole time nyg defense was looking like str8 shit i was racking my brain trying to figure it out..they had tons of injurys (still do) and at the same time the injury's were piling up they happened to be playing some strong offensive teams...i believe this unit may have got something back they were desperately missing swagger...doesnt hurt my feelings on this that car offense isnt scaring any1 bracket steve smith stop the run and put pressure on a inexperienced qb...all things i believe g-men are capable of doing.Comment -
Well you figure some team has to come out of the AFC and take that #6 seed and after tonight (12/25/09) still have five 7-7 teams in the AFC:
Jets (7-7) (probably lose next two games to INDY and CINCY) (7-9)
Texans (7-7) (might beat MIA then lose to Patriots) (8-8 or 7-9)
Dolphins (7-7) (might beat TEX but lose to Pitt) (8-8)
Steelers (7-7) (might lose to both MIA and BAL or split) (8-8 or 9-7)
Jaguars (7-7) (probably lose to Pats then beat Browns) (8-8)
#5 Seed: Baltimore (Should win at PITT and definitely win at OAK) (9-7 most likely 10-6)
#6 Seed: Denver (most liekly lose at Eagles then crush Chiefs at home) (9-7)
Comment -
sportsguy....i got a few less probably and maybe's im thinking more like....
pit wins out...in (pretty sure pit owns tie breaker on den)
bal..loses to pit beats oak own tie breaker on den.... in
mia/hou...dont really like this gm but doesnt matter alot in my mind as hou owns no tie breakers and if pit beats bal mia soft secondary and unprovin qb lose to pit..
jax same thing (not 100% on this) but do not think jax owns tiebreakers over either bal or pit + tough game this week (although wouldnt be shocked if they beat ne)
all this of coarse is based off of 1 simple thing i do believe... pit beats bal this week..if im wrong on this then who knows wtf will happen
maybe not that simple but got a feeling this is how it plays outComment -
pit -2.5....this game i believe is gonna be higher scoring than a lot of ppl expect and i believe this is big advantage pit..big ben has more wr help and there offense looked very good last week against a gb defense i have a lot of respect for...while bal has did what it is supposed to as of late(roll cupcakes) im still not sold on there offensive game plan at times..in a game that as strange as it sounds to say is ruled by offense ill ride with the better of the 2.Comment -
what it will take for steelers to make playoffs
Denver lose 1 out of 2
+
Jaguars lose 1 out of 2
+
Jets lose 1 out of 2
+
Steelers win 2 out of 2
=
Steelers in playoffs
The BOOKS are Giving Pittsburgh just as much RESPECT as Denver to make it to playoffs and Denver's in the drivers seat!!! As of now BOOKS are saying Ravens 5th seed Pittsburgh or Denver as the 6th the remaining AFC contenders SNOWBALLS CHANCE IN HELL!!
My theory on this matter came from these odds: Bet Jamaica
odds to win Superbowl
1001 Team to win the Superbowl XLIV Fri 12/25 7:30PM (EST)
1003 Baltimore Ravens +2800
1025 Pittsburgh Steelers +6000
1010 Denver Broncos +6000
1031 Tennessee Titans +10000
1017 Miami Dolphins +12500
1015 Jacksonville Jaguars +35000
1022 New York Jets +35000
1013 Houston Texans +35000Comment -
Goodluck!Comment -
Never mind, misread quoted postComment -
ok there been some strange movement i did not expect in some of these games trying to rethink my card as of now lets start with totals i know im playing....
bal/pit ov 42
nyj/indy und 40.5
gb/sea und 41.5
car/nyg und 42.5
dal/was und 42
these all seem solid ass hell to me my reasoning is listed on each of these though out this thread..
sides...all just leans as of now still looking into why some things are going on if any1 has any imput as to why some of these are jumping around by all means let me know.......
pit -2.5
nyg -7
jax +10 (no clue why this 1 is rising like this)
gb -13.5 (another 1 that i didnt expect to get of of 14 gotta wonder why)
still looking into this shit so as of now im just playing the totals sure ill fire away on sides just not sure which 1's yetComment -
I somehow like the Pats -9 this week.
Poor pass D. Avg 1 sack a game. Brady's been missing some throw lately but I'm sure he'll do better with time (as he will have plenty in this game).
NE play a lot better D at home. That's why I like Pats tomorrow.
--
KC/CIN Over 39.5
KC will be motivated after last week embarrassing performance at home. Regardless, they don't have enough talent to get it done.
I see CIN rolls and allow 10-14 pts at the end of each half to the poor Chiefs.
---
I like SF -14 as wellComment -
theplagy...i understand what your saying and honestly i have rethought the pats/jax gm over and over still not sure if im playing it...honestly i think brady more screwed up than they sayin he missing so many throws...we will know this week because we all know jax pass defense is less than respectable(understatement)
far as kc/cin goes i try and avoid cincy unless i get a total i like and bet the under this team seems capable of scoring points but content to run eat clock and win close gms..so does cincy try and light it up or stick to what they do and grind out a 20-10 victory? im asking cause hell i dont know kc defense is sorry at best but is that gonna change what cincy does? and if cincy plays the ugly grind out style they seemed to enjoy the best there really nothing kc can do to change that just be happy they arnt getting beat down....i honestly have no clue which way that 1 will go and when i can picture 2 outcomes just as probable as the other in my mind i try and stay away.....
sf....to many point for me but i sure wouldnt go the other way
gl with your card this weekend...
Comment -
The Browns were trying to grind it out with them too last week.
Oops, Harrison broke 1 for 85 yds. Oops 17 missed tackles and Cribbs to bank, twice.
I can see where you are coming from tho, but I sure hope Cincy learned it the hard way from that OAK game.
Palmer has the talent to torch that secondary whose safety will have to come up and help stopping Benson.
KC allowing about 27 ppg in their last 10 and 34 ppg in their last 5.
To me Cincy is capable of putting up at least 27-30 by themselves it just depend on the chiefs to make this go over by scoring double digits.
The funeral of Henry may factor in as they lost a tough one on the road last week.
I may add that I live in KC and making money by betting against them after that 13-3 season has been my hobby.
I'm still confused about NYG game...... with both teams heading opposite direction on O/U coming into this game. 0/5 CAR 4/1 NYG.
Felt like Car D-line has been playing a lot better. G-men can't stop the run whatsoever, but 2 Panthers' backs are banged up.
If I have to take anything it's gonna be G-men -7 with shit on the line. Prolly staying away tho.
GL on your card tomorrow,Comment -
honestly plagy ive been pretty on target with kc this year as well took the over last week possibly the easiest over ive ever hit just to hard for me to predict if cincy will light it up(nothing to do with kc)
car/nyg...to me the clear cut best bet on this game is under 42.5 pretty sure i have already wrote it up so i wont go to much into it but if i play a side at all wont be for as much as this underComment -
Personally I see the Packers blowing out SEA at Green Bay tomorrow.....Seahawks have nothing to play for and Packers wanna lock up the #5 seed. Take Packers to cover (-13.5).
I love Cincy to blow KC out of the water just because they need to wrap up and clinch the AFC north already with Baltimore still on their heels and again....Palmer should have no problem torching that secondary. Take Cincy to cover at KC.
(One of these two large spreads should hit at least).
-I would also take the Eagles ML tomorrow to whoop Denver. And take Vikings on Monday night to cover (-7.5) at Bears.
Comment -
(cont.) Oh yea and the Miami -Houston games take the OVER of 45 total points. That and the Eagles ML and the Vikings (-7.5) are my three safe plays for NFL week 16.Comment -
sportsguy... im not touching the cincy gm as im sure you know cincy hasnt "blown out" any 1 this year and there style of fb doesnt lead to blowouts after almost a whole year w/o this happening 1 time i am not risking my hard earned gambling money
on this being the 1st....i also like gb although it worrys me they have dropped it below the 14 as thats not always a good sign to me...i also worry about your reasoning of teams winning because it gets them playoff spots be careful with this line of thinking my friend as over the years i have learned this the hard way just because a team "has to win" to secure a playoff spot the fact is at least as many times as not these "have to have it teams" shit the bed in a big way lots of times against what is perceived as inferior competition ...
far as safe plays go in the nfl and certainly late season nfl safe is a overstatement as this is most certainly sometimes the hardest part of the year(cant wait for the playoffs where i feel safe again)....anyway i wish you the best of luck with your plays this week..
Comment -
oh yea sportsguy i am starting to take a liking to that mia/hou over just havnt pulled the trigger yet
Comment -
stewart will play he has had this problem all year and played well personally like the under betterComment -
fuking NE moved to -10
Comment -
ok guys bottom line dont like very many sides 2day always like this at the end of the year bunch of totals though all the 1's ive mebtioned above and also adding..
no/tb und49
mia/hou ov 45
only sides ive locked in are
pit-2.5
gb -13.5
going light 2day not trying to give back what ive took all for 2-3 units at the most...gl every1 im out for the day
Comment -
on a couple of your totals, I posted my picks over in the nba section
Best of Luck !!Comment -
I'm not sure why you played Pitt (-2.5).....Baltimore always plays them tough and both team have something to play for and are bitter division rivals. Personally I wouldn't have touched this game.Comment -
the bengals are a poor excuse for a football team, how do you score 24 points on the chargers, and then cant do shit on the chiefsComment -
un****ing believeing chiefsComment -
now the ****ing saints... that kicker better be fired now.. there goes my teaser, right down the toliet.... un believable what a ****ing bum... i can make a 37 yard field goal....Comment -
Why did the Saints let go of Carney again? That release came out of nowhere. He seemed pretty good to me.Comment -
Good Hit!!!ok guys bottom line dont like very many sides 2day always like this at the end of the year bunch of totals though all the 1's ive mebtioned above and also adding..
no/tb und49
mia/hou ov 45
only sides ive locked in are
pit-2.5
gb -13.5
going light 2day not trying to give back what ive took all for 2-3 units at the most...gl every1 im out for the day
Comment -
wow crazy day glad i trimmed card down...i tried to warn you guys backing cincy and the over they just dont score and are content to grind out wins....will cost them later...look ahead cincy/nyj sunday night under whatever the number is
Comment -
on a side note...what indy did today was a embarrassment to the nfl any1 betting that game should get a refund(and i didnt take a side till halftime took jets..but they ****ed my under with that bs)...bunch of fukin quiters just fukin sad no way that game goes over if they leave the players in....then watching them all with there heads hung on the sideline knowing they wanted to play(should have pulled a favre)...PERSONALLY I HOPE THIS KILLS THERE SEASON IF NOT SD WILL!!!!Comment -
I went 3-1 today and still have Minny (-7.5) tomorrow which should hit
I also hit the Spurs (-2.5) at NY Knicks so I am actually 4-1.
Comment
