[misteve]

Okay, probably many different views here. But I'd like to know your thoughts:

If you have a college football team that starts at, say +10 right away, then moves to +9, then +8 and finally +7 right before the game, what does that tell you? Which way do you tend to lean in this example?

I'm pretty new to this and appreciate any feedback.
Thanks
misteve

[darkghost]

I'm sure this is too general a scenario for you to get the answer you're looking for. Generally I like line moves toward the dog, but I'd never bet a dog at +7 that started at +10. you're just losing too much value. I'd figure I just missed the boat on that particular game. Either get on the dog at +10/+8 or bet the favorite at -7. BTW if you were referring to a particular game, which one?

[Senator7]

I will deal with a half point move against my team. I will not deal with a full point move. Obviously, moves off of key numbers are a different story, but these are my general guidelines. I would advise playing favorites on Monday or Tuesday before the public kills the value. I don't play most of my underdogs until Friday unless its a rare instance where the public may take the value from the underdog (Kansas City Chiefs this week). I don't like putting in plays on gameday because its too hard to judge where the line is going to be. The line is much more consistent and reliable during the week. Hope this helps.

[bigboydan]

if your gonna wait til game time and the line just drops like a rock all week. it's not a good idea unless, other factors come into play like. there could also be injuries or, weather conditions that might help move that line. i've seen lines get taken down and put back up at a lower price before.

personaly, if i feel the value was mostly gone, i'd just pass on it.

[misteve]

Thanks guys. My problem is that I place bets with a local guy here (security guard at work) and he takes bets starting 3 hours before a game begins. This is just little, fun stuff. But, if I keep betting $100 a game, it can add up (or down!) in a hurry.
So, since I have no control in WHEN I place my bet or what the line is at the time, then I have to go with what it is 3 hrs. before kickoff.
I'm trying to find hints to help me, such as where the line starts and where it's going, to give me any idea of how to bet when the time comes. Just looking for general tips and clues.
Keep any adice coming....I appreciate it!

PS Oh by the way, the Marxhall/S. Miss game, I think started around Marshall +10 and now is around +7. What does this say to you?
Thanks and look foward to any replies

[Senator7]

If he's a local, his line movement will be different than offshore books. Locals have to shade lines because of regional teams (I.E. A local in Chicago could have this Sunday's Bears' line @ -14 or -15 instead of the -12 or -12.5 you can get offshore because of the heavy local action they will get on Chicago. You can use this to your advantage when you're dealing with a local. Teams of regional interest will have little value and the correct play is usually the opposite side. Place your bets with him this week and then spend the week trying to figure out his line moves. Find out the lines 3 hours before kickoff, 2 hours before kickoff, and 1 hour before kickoff. Compare them to an offshore book like CRIS or Olympic. This will tell you if he moves by half points or points or by even more than that. Once you get this all figured out, you'll be able to get extreme value on certain teams with a difference of 2-5 points than what most offshore books have. Hope this helps.

[bigboydan]

If he's a local, his line movement will be different than offshore books. Locals have to shade lines because of regional teams (I.E. A local in Chicago could have this Sunday's Bears' line @ -14 or -15 instead of the -12 or -12.5 you can get offshore because of the heavy local action they will get on Chicago.

funny you should use chicago as an example bud. well, this story ins't about football but, rather hoops.

back in the 90's when the bulls went 72-10, those locals up there in chicago were making there lines 2 to 4 points higher than the vegas line.

the point of this story as well as the original question is, betting with locals as well as offshore is theres a great chance of middling a game and winning both ways.

[misteve]

Thanks for the help! I'm not sure who this guy deals with.....that is, the guy I place the bet with says he calls it in, and I'm not sure if he is calling Vegas, Jersey, Detroit, over sea's...etc....Do you think it is worth asking him? Also, for games this Saturday, for example, should I be asking him his lines today and comparing them to Bodog or Chris?
Thanks for the help, Senator7, I really appreciate it.
misteve

[misteve]

What is middling a game? My local guy here just does football, and only winner (+/-) and over/under.

[misteve]

Well, I see Marshall started at +10, and now Chris has it at +6.5. In very general terms, what is going on in regards to the public, Vegas, and all?

I was just informed, it did NOT start at +10...sorry for the mistake. I see it at Marshall +7 now.

[Senator7]

Misteve,

You've got mail!

[maritime]

Middling basically means that you have been presented with the opportunity place a wager on both teams but at different line values. The best way to explain is by an example (like the Chicago reference above).

Let's say the Bulls are playing the Celtics and you find a regional line favoring the Bulls by -2. But back there in Chicago your local guy has the Bulls at -5. So you place a wager on the Bulls -2 AND also a wager on the Celtics +5. You just "middled" the game. Your guaranteed at least 1 win (a small loss). But you have a chance at a big payout if the Bulls win by 3 or 4 points. Or a reasonable payoff if they win by 2 or 5.

Sounds good right. The only problem is that these opportunities are few and fare between. Some call these arbitrage opportunities.