Colts and Saints put perfect records on line
Both the Colts and Saints are home in their domes this weekend and favored to extend their unbeaten marks to 8-0 as the 2009 NFL season hits the midway point. Peyton Manning and Indianapolis are nine-point chalk at Lucas Oil Stadium when they take on their AFC South rivals from Houston. Down south inside the Superdome, Drew Brees and New Orleans are 13-point favorites to take down the Carolina Panthers.
Provided everything plays out as expected this week, both the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints will wrap up the first half of the season at 8-0.
It probably won’t happen, but imagine a Colts-Saints matchup in the Super Bowl, with both teams undefeated. It would be epic. It would be like one of those Disney movies from the early 70s, with Kurt Russell as Peyton Manning and Gus the Mule as John Carney.
But first things first. The Colts and Saints will be in their cozy indoor confines this Sunday trying to avoid a big mouthful of chalk. Neither team could overcome double-digit betting odds in Week 8. What will happen in Week 9?
Houston at Indianapolis (-9, 48)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (ET) CBS
The Colts (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) have taken advantage of a very easy schedule to make it unscathed this deep into the season. Their opponents thus far have a combined record of 17-33, the lowest in the AFC (hat tip: Tim Graham). That was the easy part. Indy’s remaining opponents are a combined 38-29 thus far, second only to the New England Patriots (38-28) in strength of schedule.
Next up are the Texans (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS), who have also had a fairly easy go of it. Their opponents were 25-34 through Week 8; the rest are 29-28 up to this point. But let’s not diminish Houston’s positive attributes. QB Matt Schaub (16 TDs, seven INTs, 100.5 passer rating) is proving to be worth the time and effort. Football Outsiders has Schaub ranked fourth overall in value per play, one spot behind Tom Brady and one ahead of Ben Roethlisberger. That’s pretty fancy company.
Too bad the Houston defense is as bad as it is. The Texans are ranked No. 28 in the NFL in defensive efficiency. They’ve allowed 4.7 yards per carry this year, just as bad as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Indianapolis run game hasn’t been all that successful this year, as Joseph Addai (3.3 yards per carry) continues to underwhelm. But as long as Addai keeps getting his touches, Manning (15 TDs, four INTs, 109.3 passer rating) will continue to have the time he needs to wing it downfield. The Colts have won each of the last four encounters with Houston (2-2 ATS) and scored at least 30 points in doing so; the over is on a delicious 8-0 run.
Carolina at New Orleans (-13, 52)
Sunday - 4:05 p.m. (ET) FOX
For a lousy team, the Panthers (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) are pretty good. They’ve won three of their last four at 2-2 ATS, most recently downsizing the Arizona Cardinals (-10 at home) 34-21 with an unholy barrage of running: 270 yards on 44 carries. The Cardinals happen to have the No. 4-ranked run defense in the league, but the ‘Cats obviously felt more comfortable facing that obstacle than hitching their wagon to QB Jake Delhomme (five TDs, 13 INTs, 59.3 passer rating).
The Saints (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) are ranked No. 25 in the nation in run defense, just about the only chink in their armor. The Atlanta Falcons (+11) were able to cover this past Monday at the Superdome in a 35-27 loss where QB Matt Ryan threw three interceptions. They did it by running the ball 24 times for 161 yards, the first good game of the season for RB Michael Turner (4.0 yards per carry). Carolina’s combination of DeAngelo Williams (4.8 yards per carry) and Jonathan Stewart (4.9 yards) could do even more damage.
The Panthers are fairly average on defense at No. 15 in efficiency, with most of the talent residing in the secondary – Carolina is No. 8 against the pass and No. 26 against the run. The injury-riddled Panthers defensive line has improved, though, since 14-year veteran tackle Hollis Thomas was signed last month. Thomas spent the last three seasons with the Saints and should have a few useful tidbits of information for John Fox and the Carolina coaching staff. It might not be enough to win, but it doesn’t have to be for the ‘Cats to cover this bloated spread
Both the Colts and Saints are home in their domes this weekend and favored to extend their unbeaten marks to 8-0 as the 2009 NFL season hits the midway point. Peyton Manning and Indianapolis are nine-point chalk at Lucas Oil Stadium when they take on their AFC South rivals from Houston. Down south inside the Superdome, Drew Brees and New Orleans are 13-point favorites to take down the Carolina Panthers.
Provided everything plays out as expected this week, both the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints will wrap up the first half of the season at 8-0.
It probably won’t happen, but imagine a Colts-Saints matchup in the Super Bowl, with both teams undefeated. It would be epic. It would be like one of those Disney movies from the early 70s, with Kurt Russell as Peyton Manning and Gus the Mule as John Carney.
But first things first. The Colts and Saints will be in their cozy indoor confines this Sunday trying to avoid a big mouthful of chalk. Neither team could overcome double-digit betting odds in Week 8. What will happen in Week 9?
Houston at Indianapolis (-9, 48)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (ET) CBS
The Colts (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) have taken advantage of a very easy schedule to make it unscathed this deep into the season. Their opponents thus far have a combined record of 17-33, the lowest in the AFC (hat tip: Tim Graham). That was the easy part. Indy’s remaining opponents are a combined 38-29 thus far, second only to the New England Patriots (38-28) in strength of schedule.
Next up are the Texans (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS), who have also had a fairly easy go of it. Their opponents were 25-34 through Week 8; the rest are 29-28 up to this point. But let’s not diminish Houston’s positive attributes. QB Matt Schaub (16 TDs, seven INTs, 100.5 passer rating) is proving to be worth the time and effort. Football Outsiders has Schaub ranked fourth overall in value per play, one spot behind Tom Brady and one ahead of Ben Roethlisberger. That’s pretty fancy company.
Too bad the Houston defense is as bad as it is. The Texans are ranked No. 28 in the NFL in defensive efficiency. They’ve allowed 4.7 yards per carry this year, just as bad as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Indianapolis run game hasn’t been all that successful this year, as Joseph Addai (3.3 yards per carry) continues to underwhelm. But as long as Addai keeps getting his touches, Manning (15 TDs, four INTs, 109.3 passer rating) will continue to have the time he needs to wing it downfield. The Colts have won each of the last four encounters with Houston (2-2 ATS) and scored at least 30 points in doing so; the over is on a delicious 8-0 run.
Carolina at New Orleans (-13, 52)
Sunday - 4:05 p.m. (ET) FOX
For a lousy team, the Panthers (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) are pretty good. They’ve won three of their last four at 2-2 ATS, most recently downsizing the Arizona Cardinals (-10 at home) 34-21 with an unholy barrage of running: 270 yards on 44 carries. The Cardinals happen to have the No. 4-ranked run defense in the league, but the ‘Cats obviously felt more comfortable facing that obstacle than hitching their wagon to QB Jake Delhomme (five TDs, 13 INTs, 59.3 passer rating).
The Saints (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) are ranked No. 25 in the nation in run defense, just about the only chink in their armor. The Atlanta Falcons (+11) were able to cover this past Monday at the Superdome in a 35-27 loss where QB Matt Ryan threw three interceptions. They did it by running the ball 24 times for 161 yards, the first good game of the season for RB Michael Turner (4.0 yards per carry). Carolina’s combination of DeAngelo Williams (4.8 yards per carry) and Jonathan Stewart (4.9 yards) could do even more damage.
The Panthers are fairly average on defense at No. 15 in efficiency, with most of the talent residing in the secondary – Carolina is No. 8 against the pass and No. 26 against the run. The injury-riddled Panthers defensive line has improved, though, since 14-year veteran tackle Hollis Thomas was signed last month. Thomas spent the last three seasons with the Saints and should have a few useful tidbits of information for John Fox and the Carolina coaching staff. It might not be enough to win, but it doesn’t have to be for the ‘Cats to cover this bloated spread