[Razz]

Not posting much righ now, just an early college play that the line has already moved 2.5 points since I bet it at +1.

4* (may be upgraded) Oregon -1.5 vs. California

[Indy Brian]

I like the Oregon pick as well but I have some concerns about the first start for their sophomore QB. Anyone have any background on him? He played okay in the Arizona game but suffered a mild concussion and I wonder if he might be a little gun shy this weekend.

[BuddyBear]

I heard something about a 3rd string QB playing...is he starting for Oregon or Cal?

So Razz...judging by your picks the past month in NCAAF....you might hate Michigan more than I do

[Razz]

**** Michigan. Oregon has a backup QB (not really third string, since Fife hasn't been in the picture for awhile) playing, but all indications are that he is doing well since the injury to Clemens.

[Razz]

Up about 15* early last Saturday turned into only a slight profit.

NCAA Football Overall (85-92-0, -89.00*)
NCAAF Sides (62-69, -79.20*)

Saturday 10/29

5* Penn St. -11 vs. Wisconsin
This is the perfect spot to go against what is at best an average Wisconsin team. Their record shows they are 8-1, but they are not in my top 20 teams in the country. The Wisconsin defense is absolutely abysmal (despite the offense’s success, Wisconsin has been out-gained by an average of 27 yards per game against a weak schedule), and will have no chance of going into Happy Valley and shutting down Michael Robinson and the Penn St. attack which has blossomed nicely this season.
Wisconsin’s defense has remarkably given up over 500 yards in each of their last four games. In their first two road games, at Minnesota (miraculous late 38-35 win) and Northwestern (51-48 loss), the Badgers have given up 85 points and nearly 1200 yards. Last week, they were out-gained at Illinois.
Penn St.’s defense has been fabulous all season, and has shown the ability to take away the opposition’s running game. Uh oh, Badgers’ fans. Don’t expect QB Stocco, the worst quarterback in the Big 10, to be successful against a dominant Nittany Lion secondary, and a PSU defense that hasn‘t given up more than 15 points at home against three of the Big 10’s better offenses.
Penn St. has covered five in a row, and faces a vastly overrated Wisconsin team here. The Badgers are in for a reality check against a Penn St. team that could easily be undefeated, and is thirsty for revenge.
Penn St. 45, Wisconsin 14

4* Oregon -1.5 vs. California
QB Dennis Dixon gets the start for Oregon, and betting on teams that suffered an important injury the week before are generally a good proposition, as the odds makers normally overreact to the injury, knowing that the public will be hesitant to back the team missing a key player.
From what I know of Dixon, he is a highly touted player, perhaps more talented than Clemons, who he is replacing. Against a phantom Cal defense, he should have plenty of success.
Cal’s quarterback, Ayoob (also known as A Boob) has had little success this year, and the Ducks should be able to take away the Bears’ potent running game. Cal lost two in a row, and barely beat Washington St. last week at home, in a game they were badly outplayed. Excluding the USC game, Oregon has averaged just under 40 points per game. The Ducks have revenge, and since they have covered 5 of 6 when hosting California, I think they get it Saturday.
Oregon 38, Cal 28

3* Northwestern +3 vs. Iowa
Northwestern took a tough break early last week when about to tie the game against Michigan, and instead fell behind by 14 when they had a fumble returned for touchdown, and were never the same. The Wildcats have plenty of weapons to rebound from that loss, and should reassert themselves as one of the elite teams in the Big 10.
Iowa is averaging only 14 ppg in their road games, and they are going to have to score a lot more than that just to keep this one close. Randy Walker is one of the few coaches in America that won’t necessarily be out-coached by Kirk Ferentz.
Northwestern 37, Iowa 31

3* Tennessee +9 -105 (still waiting to play) @ Notre Dame
Not many people are giving Tennessee any chance at all in this game, and that is a real statement on the opposite strides these teams seem to be making. I just find it impossible to pass up a top-rated defense getting more than a touchdown against a bad defense, especially when that great defense is playing for the best road dog in the nation (7-1 ATS as a road dog, and 13-2 ATS as a non-conference dog).
Granted Tennessee’s offense is in shambles. But it seems Phil Fulmer has picked a good week to take over the offensive play calling, as he should be able to put some points on the board against a Notre Dame defense that has given up 33.7 ppg in three home games. Luckily, the Vol offense won’t have to put up anywhere near that amount to cover, or even win the game.
The odds makers are asking me to believe that Notre Dame’s coaching and home field advantages are worth 15 points. They aren’t. A desperate Tennessee team gets a huge win on the national stage.
Tennessee 20, Notre Dame 17

3* Nevada -5 vs. Hawaii
Nevada was routed last week at Boise, and that is probably what has driven this line from -6.5 to -5.5. A closer look at that game tells that the Wolfpack were only out-gained by 22 yards in that one.
Nevada has scored 99 points in their last two home games, and they should and plenty more against a bad Hawaii defense which has given up points by the barrel against all but Idaho.
The main reason this play jumped out at me in the dominance of the home teams in Nevada (18-3 ATS) and Hawaii (14-6 ATS) games. It should continue here.
Nevada 38, Hawaii 24

2* Purdue +5 -105 vs. Michigan St.
This series is absolutely dominated by the home team (10-1 ATS last 11 meetings), and it’s time for Purdue to get a win, and more importantly, a cover.
Joe Tiller normally has his team rounded into shape about this time of year (6-2 ATS recently in November), and it showed last week with a very good performance at Penn St., despite failing to score when the Lions scored late.
Neither of these defenses is exactly a force, but I will gladly side with the defense that has all their starters returning from last year, and is starting to take form.
Purdue 34, Michigan St. 31

2* NC St. +14 @ Florida St.
I may as well take NC St. for a small play here, as they have now covered 12 in a row as a road dog. This is almost unheard of, and I think it will hit 13, especially since Chuck Amato is starting to feel some pressure in Raleigh. He can certainly ease that by duplicating either of his last two trips to Tallahassee. Both of those games were easy Wolfpack covers, and one saw NC St. win outright.
The supposedly dominant Florida St. defense hasn’t given up less than 24 points in any of their last four games, against offensive powerhouses Maryland, Duke, Virginia, and Wake Forest. RB Brown tallied 248 yards last week against a decent Southern Miss defense, and the Wolfpack at least keep this one close.
Florida St. 27, NC St. 21

NCAAF Totals (23-23-0, -9.80*)

3* Tennessee @ Notre Dame Under 49.5

[picantel]

Razz- I am interested in why you chose the plays below. They don't make alot of sense to me.

5* Penn St. -11 vs. Wisconsin
3* Tennessee +8.5 @ Notre Dame
2* Purdue +5 vs. Michigan St.

[Razz]

Writeups for NCAA and NFL will be posted later. By the way, it would have been really nice if the Lions had won last week, not only because of the 5* I had on them, but also because Minnesota would be a huge play this week. Here are all this week's NFL plays.

NFL Overall (51-34-2, +53.50*)
NFL Sides (33-23-1, +37.40*)

3* Chiefs -4.5 vs. Raiders
2* Buccaneers +2 vs. Panthers
2* Vikings +1.5 vs. Lions
2* Jaguars -12.5 vs. Texans


NFL Totals (18-11-1, +16.10*)

2* Falcons @ Dolphins Under 40.5
2* Bengals @ Ravens Under 36
2* Bears @ Saints Under 34

[Razz]

Razz- I am interested in why you chose the plays below. They don't make alot of sense to me.

5* Penn St. -11 vs. Wisconsin
3* Tennessee +8.5 @ Notre Dame
2* Purdue +5 vs. Michigan St.

Hey picantel, I'll write them up in a little, but I just got in, and have to sleep for awhile. I'll try to explain them as best I can though.

[bigpig19]

Total Football w/consensus partner +13.7*
Total Football w/out consensus partner +5.9*

Here are our plays for this weekend

6* Oregon -2
5* Penn St. -11
5* Northwestern +2'
4* Nevada -5'
3* Texas Tech -16'
3* Colorado -11'

NFL

4* Atlanta -2
4* Tampa Bay +1
2* Tennessee +2'


My Personal top 11

1.Texas Tech -16'
2.Penn State -11
3.Oregon -2
4.BYU -11'
5.Central Michigan +2'
6.Northwestern -2'
7.Nevada -5'
8.Notre Dame -8
9.Arizona +9'
10.Central Florida +2'
11.South Carolina +4

[kdmfox]

Up about 15* early last Saturday turned into only a slight profit.

NCAA Football Overall (85-92-0, -89.00*)
NCAAF Sides (62-69, -79.20*)

Saturday 10/29

5* Penn St. -11 vs. Wisconsin
4* Oregon -1.5 vs. California
3* Northwestern +2.5 vs. Iowa
3* Tennessee +8.5 @ Notre Dame
3* Nevada -5.5 vs. Hawaii
2* Purdue +5 -105 vs. Michigan St.
2* NC St. +14 @ Florida St.

NCAAF Totals (23-23-0, -9.80*)

3* Tennessee @ Notre Dame Under 49.5

Razz ... Didn't you take Wisconsin in the Beat The Prick?

[Shawn01]

My picks for the weekend:

Sat. CF
Stanford +33 v. USC
Buffalo +27 v. Miami (OH.)
Note: I placed an if-bet on the above. If I win the first the 2nd is S.D. -6 vs. the Jets.
Va. Tech -6.5 v. Miami (FL.)

If the Va. Tech line had been 7 or more I'd have passed, but I think they win by a TD and extra point.

Sun. NFL
Chiefs -4.5 v. Raiders
Lions/Vikings under 37
Bengals -3 v. Ravens

I know the Bengals are a risky pick, but if they are true contenders then they will show up and win this game. If they play like a top NFL team, and I think they are, then they should cover....at least I hope that logic will fly

[slacker00]

Wisconsin vs Penn State, I'm a Wisconsin homer here, and I know almost zilch about college football. That said, I is Penn State really that great? I've heard they haven't played anybody pre-conference, and even had about the easiest Big Ten schedule. I know Wisconsin is going into Happy Valley or whatever it's called. With Wisconsin's defense, and so much at stake, I think 11 points is too much. I might put a buck on the Wisconsin M.L. just for fun.

Taking Vikings and the points against the Lions at home is a sharp play, IMO. Brad Johnson might actually be an upgrade over a failing Culpepper. Johnson is a solid veteran who has done it in Minnesota in the past. As long as Johnson stays upright, he can toss the pill. The Vikings have a lot of questions right now, but I see Johnson as the ideal QB to step in right now. Plus being at home can't hurt. Harrington coming in for Detroit will have a lot to prove, but I just don't think he has the skills even against a porus Minnesota D.

Carolina at Tampa Bay. I still love to bet against Chris Simms. You guys will have to explain to me why you like Tampa Bay in this game. Carolina has always played Tampa wicked even when Tampa was strong. Tampa is weak this year, despite what they wins and losses say at this point. I almost want to pick Tampa to finish under .500 for this year, but I'd have to look at the schedule. Tampa is NOT a great team.

[Razz]

Razz ... Didn't you take Wisconsin in the Beat The Prick?

Yeah, I've had very little success in that, so I'm trying to jinx Wisconsin, Cal, and the Raiders.

[moses millsap]

Yeah, I've had very little success in that, so I'm trying to jinx Wisconsin, Cal, and the Raiders.

like your style

[Razz]

With Wisconsin's defense, and so much at stake, I think 11 points is too much. I might put a buck on the Wisconsin M.L. just for fun.

Carolina at Tampa Bay. I still love to bet against Chris Simms. You guys will have to explain to me why you like Tampa Bay in this game. Carolina has always played Tampa wicked even when Tampa was strong. Tampa is weak this year, despite what they wins and losses say at this point. I almost want to pick Tampa to finish under .500 for this year, but I'd have to look at the schedule. Tampa is NOT a great team.

As far as the Wisconsin defense goes, you probably need to replace "With" with "Despite."

As for the other one, I don't disagree. My NFC Championship game right now is Carolina over Washington, and I don't even have Tampa making the playoffs. Carolina is the better team, but Tampa is in an absolutely perfect situation to get the win. It is very similar to the Minnesota game, except that the Lions lost last weekend, and the Panthers won.

[Razz]

College writeups are in. I desperately want to upgrade Penn St., as I think they will cover by at least two touchdowns. Still, I am holding back. No NFL writeups this week, as I don't really have any big plays, and I am going out of town in a little while for the state high school football playoffs.

[Razz]

Almost forgot.

In-State Opinions (5-1-2 after easy winner with UAB Tuesday)

Weak Opinion: Alabama -16 @ Mississippi St. - The problem with taking this side is that Alabama hasn't showed up in their other two trap games. Still, I don't think they need to in order to win this one by 20.
Alabama 30, Miss St. 9

Weak Opinion: Kentucky +22.5 vs. Auburn - Kentucky is playing for pride, and for their head coach's job. Auburn has no reason to show up here, with Georgia on deck.
Auburn 31, Kentucky 14

Weak Opinion: Florida Atlantic +3.5 @ Troy - Someone I respect has a nice play on Troy this week, but I can't recommend laying more than a field goal with a Troy team, especially with the success on Sun Belt dogs this season.
Troy 21, FAU 19

[slacker00]

Thanks for the response Razz. You're right about the Wisconsin defense. I heard they are giving up 6 yards per play. Ouch! I guess I'm kinda biased by all of the past great Wisconsin teams that kinda did it with defense. I'll admit I really don't watch college football much, and when I do, I tend to fall asleep. I can't explain why.

About Carolina-Tampa, we'll have to see how this plays out. I'm not really sure how to play "rebound" or streak type of trends. I am more of an empiricist, looking at the team in the abstract, but I realize this is naive, even if it is simpler for me to understand. GL this weekend!

[picantel]

nice job razz. woulda been awesome of you had the ML on a couple of those wins.

[BuddyBear]

College writeups are in. I desperately want to upgrade Penn St., as I think they will cover by at least two touchdowns. Still, I am holding back. No NFL writeups this week, as I don't really have any big plays, and I am going out of town in a little while for the state high school football playoffs.

Good job today Razz...i am glad to see this weekend come for you...it's been a long time coming for a good capper.

Anyway...Wisconsin blows big time. There are three very overated teams right now: Wisconsin, UCLA, and Alabama.

Wisconsin is really overhyped as usual...they got hammered by NW, should have lost to Minn but got very lucky, struggled with both Indiana and especially Illinois. Not sure how they beat Michigan though I'll give them props for that. But their defense is really not good at all.

[Shawn01]

Anyway...Wisconsin blows big time. There are three very overated teams right now: Wisconsin, UCLA, and Alabama.

Wisconsin is really overhyped as usual...they got hammered by NW, should have lost to Minn but got very lucky, struggled with both Indiana and especially Illinois. Not sure how they beat Michigan though I'll give them props for that. But their defense is really not good at all.

Hit the nail right on the head Buddy. One of the TV talking heads said yesterday that Wisconsin has a great running game and Penn St. had a great defense, and that in big games the great defense usually wins over the great offense. Yesterday's game backed that up. And I also agree that UCLA and 'Bama are overrated as well.

[Razz]

Thanks guys. BB, you don't know how badly I want Alabama to beat LSU Saturday. I haven't had an NCAA 10* since the middle of last year, but Auburn would be one against Alabama if things fall in place (I just hope Auburn doesn't do something stupid like beat Georgia by 14 and destroy any line value).