Week 7 Leans
I'm going to go through every game this week and give thoughts on each match up.
SD vs KC *** KC is coming off there first win, have been competitive the last two games and are 5-2 ATS vs SD L7. SD has been disappointing and really needs this game sitting at 2-3. Majority is on SD but I see this game being close affair, can't trust SD's lack of defense right now. Slight LEAN towards KC at +5/6.
IND vs STL *** On paper the Colts coming of a bye week should destroy the Rams. STL has only scored 5 TD's in 6 games! The line movement has been great for IND yet, so a small LEAN towards IND at -13.
GBvs CLE *** GB has not been great this year and CLE has been predictably pathetic, although have won three straight ATS. Packers for some reason struggle vs crappy teams on the road (1-4 ATS L5) and are 0-4 ATS following a win ATS. The Browns somehow are 7-1-1 L9 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-10. NO LEAN/PLAY on this game.
MIN vs PIT *** One of the premier games for week 7, the majority of people will be riding the Vikings wave again especially getting 4 points. PIT is only 1-5 ATS this year, while MIN is 4-2 ATS including three road victories vs the lowly Browns, Lions and Rams. Vikings have to show me they can cover against a power house home team. The line has not budged from 4 even though 70% plus are on the Vikings (looks a lot like the SD/PIT game) . MEDIUM LEAN towards PIT at -4 (ideally -3).
NE vs TB *** Not much to say about this game other than the game is being played at Wembley Stadium in jolly ole' England. With Josh Johnson at QB for the Buccos and Mr. Hoody on the other side, how could anybody take TB? MEDIUM LEAN towards NE at -14.
SF vs HOU *** SF is coming of a bye week and a thumping vs ATL. HOU is coming off a big road victory. The Niners are 9-1-1 following a SU loss of 14 or more. The Texans have not put together B2B victories. HOU has really struggled stop the rush(Gore turns this week), while SF has shut down the rush all year. Slight LEAN towards SF at +3.5.
NYJ vs OAK *** Two teams that I am having trouble backing right now. OAK has covered in 2 of 3 home games this year while the Jets have lost 3 straight ATS. Historically OAK has handled the Jets. The line opened up at 7 and has dropped to 6 with the 70% of the public on the Jets. Can't believe I have a SMALL LEAN towards at OAK +6 (ideally at +7).
CHI vs CIN *** Two evenly matched teams go at it here. The Bears are only 1-6 ATS L7 as an underdog. Historically CIN is 4-1 ATS vs CHI L5. Slight LEAN towards CIN ML, probably a NO PLAY.
NO vs MIA *** On paper NO looks like the play. They have the advantage in everything except for the running attack. The line isn't moving in the Saints direction though. Small LEAN towards the Saints...NO PLAY so far.
ATL vs DAL *** The Falcons are the perceived better team here but then why is Vegas giving them 4 points?!?. ATL rushing attack is not yet what it was last year. Their rush defense has been terrible as well. DAL, while over rated, is the better rushing team and have been very good after a bye week. DAL opened up as 3 point fav's and the line has jumped to 4 with 70% of the public on ATL. Small LEAN towards DAL at -4 (ideally at -3).
ARI vs NYG *** Giants coming off an tough loss, while ARI has won their last two. Cardinals have never fared well traveling to the east coast playing the Giants. The teams match up pretty good except for the running attacks or lack there of for ARI. I have a strong feeling Vegas is giving the Cards 7 points to lure us towards them. Small LEAN towards NYG at -7 (ideally -6.5).
PHI vs WAS *** MNF Division rival game in WAS in a match up of teams coming off poor weeks. All signs point towards the Eagles vs a poor offense and a team with coaching issues. Small LEAN towards PHI at -7 (ideally -6.5).
Leans(*=units):PIT**,NE**,OAK*,DAL*,NO*,SF*,IND* (so far)
Feedback and thoughts are always welcome.
