NFL Plays - Week 7

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  • Dexter
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 12-24-08
    • 25829

    #1
    NFL Plays - Week 7
    (3x) over colts 45.5 - the rams give up 28ppg and in roles a no huddle attack led by arguably the best/hottest qb in the game. at home, i also feel the rams will be able to put up a few td's to help contribuite. i actually would be surprised if the colts dont put up 40 points.

    (2x) bears +2.5 - the bears are a better team then the bengals and should be hungry to get back in the win column off a monday night game they should have won. carson palmer is having a terrible season, and that starts to catch up with the bengals now.

    (2x) browns +7 - (A4 - Autobet) play any home dog getting 7-13 points off a game in which they scored 6-27 points, and are facing a team that is coming off a home win as a favorite for 2x min.

    (3x) over pats 45 - the bucs give up 28ppg - basically, see my analysis for over colts as i have the same feeling about this game.

    (2x) 49ers +3 - frank gore returns for a sf team coming off a loss (and a bye). i have respect for what singletary has done with mediocre talent, and expect him to come up with a solid game plan for the texans offense.

    (4x) over saints 47 - the dolphins are avg'ing 31ppg in 3 home games, while the saints offense is lethal home or away - just ask the eagles.

    (2x) cowboys -4 (A5 - Autobet) fade any team who just won a nationally televised game for a min of 1x

    (6x) giants - 7 - the giants will not be a happy bunch off of that embarassment in new orleans. the cards have historically struggled on the east coast vs good teams. i wish this game were at 1pm eastern - regardless, the giants should roll on sunday night.

    (3x) over giants - the giants will have no trouble scoring on arizona, and the g-men have played to the over in 4 of 5 this year. last year these 2 teams hooked up for 66.

    (3x) under eagles 38 - i think ive bet under skins for 3 weeks in a row now. historical trends from philly @ wash last 5 games point low as well (4-1 to the under)
  • rezkoness69
    SBR High Roller
    • 02-16-09
    • 249

    #2
    Like the bears a lot this week Dexter..lets see how things move
    Comment
    • taxman
      SBR High Roller
      • 09-11-07
      • 182

      #3
      Dex reallly watching the teams coming off there bye week the last few weeks....I love SF off the bye after a horrible loss and two weeks to prepare...I hopped on Miami here getting 7 points at home after a bye and playing good football..NO was skyhigh vs G-men last week..I don't think they match that intensity again...live home dog here...
      Comment
      • Dexter
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 12-24-08
        • 25829

        #4
        nice call on mia....
        Comment
        • tblues2005
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 07-30-06
          • 9235

          #5
          I haven't had a chance to get a real good look at next week yet. I will be looking this over this week no doubt.
          Comment
          • Dexter
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 12-24-08
            • 25829

            #6
            anyone else with week 7 plays/analysis?
            Comment
            • Dave ATS
              SBR High Roller
              • 10-15-09
              • 104

              #7
              Quick FYI...the flu is running wild in the Clev. complex this week
              Comment
              • Poulsbo
                SBR Rookie
                • 10-18-09
                • 40

                #8
                I seem to be 180 out from everyone else...
                i took the Falcons on the ML
                small parlay vikes & Falcs on the ML
                NO @-6.5
                Colts @ -13.5
                pipe dream bet/parlay
                Falcs. Cowboys over 47.5
                Falcs. ML
                Vikes over 45
                vikes ML
                I placed $25 on this one i'll skip Starbucks for a couple days to make my $25.00 back.
                Comment
                • docrocker
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 09-11-09
                  • 409

                  #9
                  What site do you have the Bears +2.5???
                  Comment
                  • Dexter
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 12-24-08
                    • 25829

                    #10
                    Originally posted by docrocker
                    What site do you have the Bears +2.5???
                    i play with a few locals...
                    Comment
                    • duke4s907
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 10-07-09
                      • 11

                      #11
                      reconsider taking the browns +7

                      Cleveland Browns announced today that twelve people showed up for practice with the flu today. Of those twelve, more than six where starters and three where backups to the starters. Their not saying if its that H1N1 strain.

                      Good news tho. Of those twelve none of them where receivers. Not that they could catch anything anyway.
                      Comment
                      • TUDINH
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 10-31-08
                        • 148

                        #12
                        GOOD LUCKY ALL
                        Comment
                        • atlman_7
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 10-16-09
                          • 68

                          #13
                          like this weeks card a lot.
                          Comment
                          • Dexter
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 12-24-08
                            • 25829

                            #14
                            Originally posted by duke4s907
                            Cleveland Browns announced today that twelve people showed up for practice with the flu today. Of those twelve, more than six where starters and three where backups to the starters. Their not saying if its that H1N1 strain.

                            Good news tho. Of those twelve none of them where receivers. Not that they could catch anything anyway.
                            ha
                            Comment
                            • minet123
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 02-17-07
                              • 10280

                              #15
                              Cash"em BIG on the Bears play
                              Comment
                              • kevindakota00
                                Restricted User
                                • 03-16-09
                                • 721

                                #16
                                im on the giants for opposite reasons dex.Mostly, this very talented team got shown up last week, this team will be angry and focused here.
                                Comment
                                • solobass
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-15-09
                                  • 1277

                                  #17
                                  nice work dex, and using locals is a great way to get some oddball lines once in awhile. quick question, and i will hang up and listen to your response. do you have a spreadsheet where you keep the accuracy of your autobet categories and then weight the more successful ones with more money?
                                  Comment
                                  • AdaBarber
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-05-08
                                    • 4424

                                    #18
                                    I like New England and Atlanta so far. The program plays are coming soon. To be continued....
                                    Comment
                                    • Parligod
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 09-28-09
                                      • 403

                                      #19
                                      Good Picks: I like the Colts, Pats and Saints OVERS. I see all these games being VERY high scoring, so I think they'll cover.

                                      Dangerous Picks: The 49ers game I lean to the 49ers for the same reasons, but have some concerns that this might be a tricky game. Same goes for the Giants/Cards - I could easily see the cards pulling off a sick win, they're just very unpredictable sometimes with hot-cold extremes. Last, I'm unsure on the Pitt/Minn. game. Both are solid teams and I'm unsure right now how their game will turn out.

                                      Additional Picks: I like picking Pats and Colts on the spread. The Colts should crush the rams especially off a bye week, and the lines can't be placed high enough. Same goes for the Pats, with less certainty of covering but still good odds IMO. Again I thought the biggest steal this week was the Colts game even at -14. You said yourself Dex that you see the colts pounding 40 points in this game, how can they NOT cover vs. the Rams? This is one of the best teams vs. one of the worst teams, AND the colts are coming off a bye week. Just my thoughts...
                                      Comment
                                      • Dexter
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-24-08
                                        • 25829

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by kevindakota00
                                        im on the giants for opposite reasons dex.Mostly, this very talented team got shown up last week, this team will be angry and focused here.
                                        thats exactly my reasoning for backing the giants. i think they play with fire in their eyes off the blowout in NO
                                        Comment
                                        • Dexter
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 12-24-08
                                          • 25829

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by solobass
                                          nice work dex, and using locals is a great way to get some oddball lines once in awhile. quick question, and i will hang up and listen to your response. do you have a spreadsheet where you keep the accuracy of your autobet categories and then weight the more successful ones with more money?
                                          yeah, i have 1 local that always jacks up the favorites and the overs. the other guy is the more legit one who moves with vegas.

                                          lol - i have a spreadsheet at home and will post the YTD results thus far later tonight. i do already heavily weight one that i have had success with over the years (one were you play a home team off a road win etc etc). most of the autobets i have created are new, so i will adjust the weighting next year to best get the proper returns. hopefully they all will be making money.
                                          Comment
                                          • Dexter
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 12-24-08
                                            • 25829

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by AdaBarber
                                            I like New England and Atlanta so far. The program plays are coming soon. To be continued....
                                            the program plays - love it.
                                            Comment
                                            • cgars1
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 01-18-09
                                              • 657

                                              #23
                                              Dex I LOVE THE CARD THIS WEEK!!!! Great selections!!!!


                                              Comment
                                              • taxman
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 09-11-07
                                                • 182

                                                #24
                                                Hey Dex really liking KC plus the points vs SD....KC is 8-3 ATS in there last 11 at home vs the Bolts...KC is improving each week...SD has a porous D to say the least and think KC can build on there W last week....Sd travels after a Monday Nighter to...hmmmm I'll grab the points with a small ML on the Chiefs....
                                                Comment
                                                • solobass
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-15-09
                                                  • 1277

                                                  #25
                                                  dex, 49ers look like a good play there too, i am not on it but i will pull for you to cash.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • solobass
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-15-09
                                                    • 1277

                                                    #26
                                                    i am on the vikings, waited for the line to move and got it at +6. favorites early, dogs late. also i am doing my 2/3 and 1/3 bet on this. when i can figure an underdog has a good chance of winning SU i split my bet 2/3 ats and 1/3 ml (+240).
                                                    Comment
                                                    • AdaBarber
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-05-08
                                                      • 4424

                                                      #27
                                                      Here we go Dex. You asked for it you got it. It has not been tested fully so tread lightly. We should be alright.

                                                      NFL
                                                      Falcons will win straight up. Take any pts.
                                                      Take Jets up until -7.5
                                                      Vikings take any points. They should win straight up by 6.
                                                      Take Patriots blowout.
                                                      Colts will win by 20.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • AdaBarber
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-05-08
                                                        • 4424

                                                        #28
                                                        And Washington is an autobet for the fade and the under. Hell, the OC just got pulled from a bingo game.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • AdaBarber
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-05-08
                                                          • 4424

                                                          #29
                                                          My plays official for tomorrow:

                                                          Colts by at least 22
                                                          Patriots by at least 22
                                                          Jets by at least 18
                                                          Falcons by at least 6
                                                          Cards win by 2

                                                          This is the NFL. Play at your own risk!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • twentyonekid
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 08-09-09
                                                            • 883

                                                            #30
                                                            good luck dexter,some plays i don't like are..SF,CLEV.....like all the others
                                                            Comment
                                                            • darkenergy
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-08-09
                                                              • 4013

                                                              #31
                                                              Eagles -7.
                                                              Andy Reid is 14-10 ATS record after loosing as a favorite. 12-8 as a favorite in following game, 2-2 as dog.
                                                              Jim Zorn is 1-2 ATS record after loosing as a favorite. 0-2 as a favorite in following game, 1-0 as a dog.
                                                              Skins are beatable, they won two home games to Rams and Tampa
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ragiche
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 12-09-08
                                                                • 3110

                                                                #32
                                                                Bears +1 (3x) Tailing Dexter.

                                                                Chargers -5 (3x)

                                                                Saints -6 (3x)

                                                                Vikings +6 (3x)

                                                                GL today guys .
                                                                Comment
                                                                • WhatAboutMeBitch
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-02-09
                                                                  • 1294

                                                                  #33
                                                                  lots of action, good luck
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • darkenergy
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-08-09
                                                                    • 4013

                                                                    #34
                                                                    There you are rag.......welcome back.
                                                                    GL today
                                                                    Play #1: KC + 5.5 this line jump out of me is because why only open @4.5 KC is no body???
                                                                    I'm not booking yet, hope to get around 6 or 6.5 by game time (but I doubt it)
                                                                    This is third SD road trip....first one won Chockland by 4, second game lost to Pitt by 10. KC always play tough against charger. KC took 3 out of 4 ATS against Chargers in their last 4 match up.
                                                                    Line open @ 4.5 several books went up to 5 or 5.5. BUT some books start to drop back to SD -4.5 +109 (books begging you to take SD and pay no juice) with 75% on spread and 76% on ML backing up Chargers.
                                                                    KC 1.5 units.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • jayc88
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 12-30-07
                                                                      • 6785

                                                                      #35
                                                                      (2x) browns +7 - (A4 - Autobet) play any home dog getting 7-13 points off a game in which they scored 6-27 points, and are facing a team that is coming off a home win as a favorite for 2x min.


                                                                      dexter
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