Week 6 Leans
I'm going to go through every game this week and give thoughts on each matchup. Feedback and thoughts are always welcome.
KC vs WAS *** Initially I was leaning WAS, but truth be told both teams could lay an egg at any moment. NO LEAN/PLAY in this game.
HOU vs CIN *** On paper the Bengals looks like the play on laying 4.5. The thing for me is that the Bengals have not beat up anybody this year and HOU is a team that can catch you slipping with it's mighty offense. SMALL LEAN towards CIN at -4 because of the Texans lack of run offense but I feel this game will be decided by less than a TD.
CLE vs PIT *** The Steelers aren't exactly dominating this year but this week they get to beat up on the pups from Cleveland. While the Browns have covered the spread the last two weeks, they have been absolutely owned by the Steelers. I'm not big on laying double digit points usually so I'm LEANING towards teasing PIT down with another game.
BAL vs MIN *** One of the premier games for week 6, the majority of people will be riding the Vikings wave for a 6-0 start against a Ravens team that has lost to NEon the road and then CIN at home during the last two weeks. History shows that BAL is 5-1-1 ATS vs MIN in their last 7 games. The Vikes have played the easier schedule beating up on doormats: DET, CLE and STL and having tight affairs with GB and SF. IMO the Ravens are the better team and will be highly motivated after two straight losses looking to exploit Favre. 70% plus are on MIN, yet the line is moving down. STRONG LEAN towards BAL at +3 (ideally +3.5) and also the ML small.
STL vs JAC *** Not much to say about this game. I will not back STL this year unless they show something at all besides RB S-Jax. The Jags just got waxed last week so they will show up to pad their stats vs. the Rams. SMALL LEAN towards JAC at -9.5 or teased down.
NYG vs NOR *** Another top notch game for week 6. This game is obviously a battle of the titans. Problem is that both E. Manning and B. Jacobs are not 100% healthy/performing. The Giants road run defense hasn't been great this year (ranked 20th) vs. the Saints surprising solid all around defense (ranked 7th). 70% plus on the NYG yet line hasn't budged. STRONG LEAN towards NOR at -3 (ideally -2.5).
CAR vs TAM *** While CAR is the better team I have a hard time laying 3 plus points on the road with the Panthers right now. Can't trust either team at all. NO PLAY/LEAN on this game.
DET vs GB *** NO Stafford or C. Johnson this week will make this play a no brainer. GB isn't playing to their expected level thus far and didn't cover the double digit spread last year vs DET. SMALL LEAN towards GB at -13, most likely GB will be teased down.
PHI vs OAK *** Like the Rams, The Raiders will not see my cash unless they show something. Tough to lay on 14 on the road on the west coast. LEAN towards teasing PHI down.
ARI vs SEA *** Division rivals face off in Quest Field. ARI dominated the depleted Seahawks last year. Historically SEA dominates the ARI at home. This game looks like a coin flip. NO PLAY/LEAN on this game.
BUF vs NYJ *** Another division rival game. The Bills have last three in a row ATS including an ugly game last week. The Jets are the better team but has only had one dominating victory vs. HOU, while losing their last two ATS. I'm not confortable in laying double digits in this game. NO PLAY/LEAN on this game.
TEN vs NE *** NO way this spread would be in the 9/10 point range starting this year. The spread between these teams has never been over 6, so this tells me that Vegas wants us to believe TEN is as bad as it's 0-5 record (1-4 ATS). NE is only 2-3 ATS and haven't beat up anybody this year. I see the Titans run offense holding them close if not winning out right. MEDIUM LEAN towards TEN at +9.5 (ideally at +10).
CHI vs ATL *** Both teams look very even on paper. Initially leaned towards ATL but history is against them traveling back from the west coast. NO PLAY/LEAN towards this game.
DEN vs SD *** MNF Division rival game in SD in a very interesting matchup. DEN comes in 5-0 straight up and ATS, while SD is 1-3 ATS thus far. The Broncos defense is on fire but has played weak offenses in CIN, CLE and OAK and the over rated Cowboys and Patriots. History show that SD dominates DEN and that is what I see happening again. 65% plus on DEN, the line opened up at -3.5 and went to -4.5 momentarily with no public support. BIG LEAN on SD at -3 (ideally at -2.5).
Leans(*=units):NO ***, BAL **, SD *****, TEN **
KC vs WAS *** Initially I was leaning WAS, but truth be told both teams could lay an egg at any moment. NO LEAN/PLAY in this game.
HOU vs CIN *** On paper the Bengals looks like the play on laying 4.5. The thing for me is that the Bengals have not beat up anybody this year and HOU is a team that can catch you slipping with it's mighty offense. SMALL LEAN towards CIN at -4 because of the Texans lack of run offense but I feel this game will be decided by less than a TD.
CLE vs PIT *** The Steelers aren't exactly dominating this year but this week they get to beat up on the pups from Cleveland. While the Browns have covered the spread the last two weeks, they have been absolutely owned by the Steelers. I'm not big on laying double digit points usually so I'm LEANING towards teasing PIT down with another game.
BAL vs MIN *** One of the premier games for week 6, the majority of people will be riding the Vikings wave for a 6-0 start against a Ravens team that has lost to NEon the road and then CIN at home during the last two weeks. History shows that BAL is 5-1-1 ATS vs MIN in their last 7 games. The Vikes have played the easier schedule beating up on doormats: DET, CLE and STL and having tight affairs with GB and SF. IMO the Ravens are the better team and will be highly motivated after two straight losses looking to exploit Favre. 70% plus are on MIN, yet the line is moving down. STRONG LEAN towards BAL at +3 (ideally +3.5) and also the ML small.
STL vs JAC *** Not much to say about this game. I will not back STL this year unless they show something at all besides RB S-Jax. The Jags just got waxed last week so they will show up to pad their stats vs. the Rams. SMALL LEAN towards JAC at -9.5 or teased down.
NYG vs NOR *** Another top notch game for week 6. This game is obviously a battle of the titans. Problem is that both E. Manning and B. Jacobs are not 100% healthy/performing. The Giants road run defense hasn't been great this year (ranked 20th) vs. the Saints surprising solid all around defense (ranked 7th). 70% plus on the NYG yet line hasn't budged. STRONG LEAN towards NOR at -3 (ideally -2.5).
CAR vs TAM *** While CAR is the better team I have a hard time laying 3 plus points on the road with the Panthers right now. Can't trust either team at all. NO PLAY/LEAN on this game.
DET vs GB *** NO Stafford or C. Johnson this week will make this play a no brainer. GB isn't playing to their expected level thus far and didn't cover the double digit spread last year vs DET. SMALL LEAN towards GB at -13, most likely GB will be teased down.
PHI vs OAK *** Like the Rams, The Raiders will not see my cash unless they show something. Tough to lay on 14 on the road on the west coast. LEAN towards teasing PHI down.
ARI vs SEA *** Division rivals face off in Quest Field. ARI dominated the depleted Seahawks last year. Historically SEA dominates the ARI at home. This game looks like a coin flip. NO PLAY/LEAN on this game.
BUF vs NYJ *** Another division rival game. The Bills have last three in a row ATS including an ugly game last week. The Jets are the better team but has only had one dominating victory vs. HOU, while losing their last two ATS. I'm not confortable in laying double digits in this game. NO PLAY/LEAN on this game.
TEN vs NE *** NO way this spread would be in the 9/10 point range starting this year. The spread between these teams has never been over 6, so this tells me that Vegas wants us to believe TEN is as bad as it's 0-5 record (1-4 ATS). NE is only 2-3 ATS and haven't beat up anybody this year. I see the Titans run offense holding them close if not winning out right. MEDIUM LEAN towards TEN at +9.5 (ideally at +10).
CHI vs ATL *** Both teams look very even on paper. Initially leaned towards ATL but history is against them traveling back from the west coast. NO PLAY/LEAN towards this game.
DEN vs SD *** MNF Division rival game in SD in a very interesting matchup. DEN comes in 5-0 straight up and ATS, while SD is 1-3 ATS thus far. The Broncos defense is on fire but has played weak offenses in CIN, CLE and OAK and the over rated Cowboys and Patriots. History show that SD dominates DEN and that is what I see happening again. 65% plus on DEN, the line opened up at -3.5 and went to -4.5 momentarily with no public support. BIG LEAN on SD at -3 (ideally at -2.5).
Leans(*=units):NO ***, BAL **, SD *****, TEN **
