Hedge a Parlay??

[Robust]

My buddy has this parlay pending..

Parlay (4 Teams)09/29/09 02:05 ETbet 5.50 to win 51.90 Result: Pending
Athletics(Oakland) Cahill 4
Mariners(Seattle) Hernandez 6 09/29/09(22:10 ET)
Mariners(Seattle) -200
GaTech 42
MississippiSt 31 10/03/09(19:30 ET)
GaTech -4.5
Giants(NewYork) 27
Chiefs(KansasCity) 16 10/04/09(13:05 ET)
Giants(NewYork) -9
Packers(GreenBay)
Vikings(Minnesota) 10/05/09(20:35 ET)
Vikings(Minnesota) -3.5

he wants to know the best # to hedge it... I am thinking around a $20 bet to guarentee around $40..

whatcha think?

and I know there is a calculator on the site (going there now), but I am not sure how to input a Parlay.. lol

Robust

[oda11]

I think a $15 bet on the Packers spread is enough... Plus the spread is sitting at about +4.5 now.

[Robust]

yeah.. was explaining to my buddy about setting up a middle of EXACTLY 4.. lol

that would be a miracle..

my numbers (manually at -110 odds), are lingering around $18 for ~$35.. need to start counting the pennies

If anyone has access to a calculator for parlay arbitrage (hedging), lemme know..

Robust

[Robust]

redid the math on a spreadsheet..

Parlay Pays a total of 56.90

Betting 19.56 on -110 line, results in 37.34 win
and if the parlay hits, 56.90 -19.56 = 37.34 win

and there is always the possibility of a middle...

did I do this correctly??

Robust

[LT Profits]

Best hedge would be 0.

Why include game in parlay in the first place? If his intent was to hedge, better off just betting 3-game parlay with other teams and he would be done already. If he really thinks the Vikings are +EV, then better to let it ride than lessen a +EV position.

[Robust]

Best hedge would be 0.

Why include game in parlay in the first place? If his intent was to hedge, better off just betting 3-game parlay with other teams and he would be done already. If he really thinks the Vikings are +EV, then better to let it ride than lessen a +EV position.

I agree.. but this was a drunk wager.. lol

I am prolly going with GB and he has the vikes.. since we disagree, he wants the easy way out.. on the games we agreed, they all won today.. he kicked my but on the balt and cincy bets...

so he picked better than me.. but has no confidence.. LOL

Robust

[TKainZero]

The reason to hedge is to take a higher % of making more money then you started with.

It makes sense to do. Take a nice profit.

Then of corse, you can not hedge, but, thats up to you.

[Robust]

Figured it out with a pen, so posting it for the ages (reference)...

Parlay Arbitrage:

Parlay Total (Risk + Payout) = P
Line of the 'other' team AGAINST the parlay = L
Reward No Matter who wins = R

R=P/(L+2)

In this case:

L = -110 = 100/110 = .909

R = 56.90/(.909+2)
R = 19.559 or 19.56

[Robust]

The reason to hedge is to take a higher % of making more money then you started with.

It makes sense to do. Take a nice profit.

Then of corse, you can not hedge, but, thats up to you.

huh?

yes I can

did I miss something..?

Robust

[Ralphie1412]

hedging a 5 dollar bet?

[Robust]

hedging a 5 dollar bet?

hey now!!!

FIVE FIFTY!!



what can I say.. my buddy wants ANY win.. lol

and for the record.. I would just let it play out

Robust

[Hotdiggity11]

If it was for nice money [Like a 50 dollar 6-teamer or some shit], I'd definitely lay down a hedge. But this? Naw, let it ride lol.

[Hybris]

Agree, if you dont like it then dont bet parlays. Play them as Round Robins next time