Had some success last week going 5-1. Don’t expect I can do that every week but I can dream can’t I?
I don’t generally do write-ups with NFL games but I am gonna try and do atleast one game a week with some reasoning as to why. This way if they lose you can better understand how to fade in the future.
Minnesota @ Detroit
Detroit is at home this week and are getting 10 points as of this posting. On the surface one might assume the Viking’s are a gift at anything under 2 touchdowns. While that may be true history doesn’t support that theory. We won’t go into the numbers of double digit dogs because I didn’t take the time to pull up last year’s posting where I listed each teams records since 2006 in that position. What I will say about that though is it leans to don’t lay double digits as a rule. When doing this you have to pick your spots very carefully. What I will tell you about this particular match-up is that the average margin of victory has been 8.2 points. That includes a 32 point win by Minnesota in 2007. Take that lil nugget out and your average margin of victory in 5.5 points. Also consider that last year’s 0-16 Lions team played Minnesota twice and lost by a combined total of 6 points.
So what’s different this year? Minnesota still has “the Beast” Adrian Peterson. Sure they added aging Brett Favre but aside from his experience and leadership abilities how much of a difference will he make? All in all I think the teams match up basically the same as they did last year with the small exception going to Detroit with new qb Matt Stafford, whom by the way while making mistakes does increase the chances for the Lions to score.
I certainly don’t look for Detroit to win this game but I’ll take history as a partner and take the points here.
Play:
Detroit +10 **( playing it down to 9)
Other Plays:
Jacksonville -3*
Atlanta -6*
Tampa Bay +5*
Dallas -3*
I don’t generally do write-ups with NFL games but I am gonna try and do atleast one game a week with some reasoning as to why. This way if they lose you can better understand how to fade in the future.
Minnesota @ Detroit
Detroit is at home this week and are getting 10 points as of this posting. On the surface one might assume the Viking’s are a gift at anything under 2 touchdowns. While that may be true history doesn’t support that theory. We won’t go into the numbers of double digit dogs because I didn’t take the time to pull up last year’s posting where I listed each teams records since 2006 in that position. What I will say about that though is it leans to don’t lay double digits as a rule. When doing this you have to pick your spots very carefully. What I will tell you about this particular match-up is that the average margin of victory has been 8.2 points. That includes a 32 point win by Minnesota in 2007. Take that lil nugget out and your average margin of victory in 5.5 points. Also consider that last year’s 0-16 Lions team played Minnesota twice and lost by a combined total of 6 points.
So what’s different this year? Minnesota still has “the Beast” Adrian Peterson. Sure they added aging Brett Favre but aside from his experience and leadership abilities how much of a difference will he make? All in all I think the teams match up basically the same as they did last year with the small exception going to Detroit with new qb Matt Stafford, whom by the way while making mistakes does increase the chances for the Lions to score.
I certainly don’t look for Detroit to win this game but I’ll take history as a partner and take the points here.
Play:
Detroit +10 **( playing it down to 9)
Other Plays:
Jacksonville -3*
Atlanta -6*
Tampa Bay +5*
Dallas -3*
