NFL Betting: The changing of the odds
NFL Betting: The changing of the odds
With the exhibition season just days from being over, it's time to revisit some of the numbers on the futures board and evaluate why a few odds have changed significantly. In Seattle, the return of Matt Hasselbeck to run the Seahawks' offense is the primary reason their futures have dropped 25 points, from 60:1 a few weeks ago to their current 35:1 mark. Meanwhile the public continues to pour it on the Patriots.
The most important month of the NFL season? August.
These preseason games might not have the allure of the Super Bowl, but what happens in August will play a significant role in deciding who gets to play in February. We’ve already seen a lot of movement on the Super Bowl betting odds to reflect the events of the exhibition season. Here are the most important line moves and the logic behind them.
New England Patriots: 6-1 to 4-1
This appears to be a purely market-driven move, as the betting public comes flooding in to welcome Tom Brady back to NFL action. The Pats were 4-1 to win the Super Bowl at this time last year, before Brady was knocked out of commission in the season opener. New England supporters are already on pins and needles after Brady left last Friday’s game against Washington with a sore right shoulder. But it doesn’t appear to be serious, as the Pats decided to release backup QB Kevin O’Connell over the weekend.
Philadelphia Eagles: 12-1 to 8-1
The Eagles were already getting some Super Bowl love, including from Yours Truly, and then they went and signed Michael Vick to a contract. He won’t start over Donovan McNabb, but he’s about as good an insurance policy you could ask for, and there’s always the option of using the Wildcat formation from time to time. It was uncertain at press time whether commissioner Roger Goodell will reinstate Vick before Week 6 of the regular season. Vick is expected to play extended minutes in Philadelphia’s Week 4 preseason matchup with the New York Jets; McNabb will sit.
Minnesota Vikings: 22-1 to 14-1
This move is mostly in response to the latest unretirement from Brett Favre. Quarterback has been a problem position for the Vikings ever since Daunte Culpepper messed up his knee in 2005. Favre (81.0 passer rating last year) will be a stabilizing force on the field, even though the buzz from the locker room is that many players prefer to have Tarvaris Jackson (76.5 career rating) calling the signals. Vikings supporters were also happy to learn earlier this month that the Williams Wall, aka defensive linemen Kevin and Pat Williams, won’t have to serve their four-game suspension for violating the league’s anti-doping policy – provided the federal courts choose not to get involved.
Chicago Bears: 28-1 to 18-1
Although the Bears are in the same division as Minnesota, their Super Bowl odds go up regardless with the addition of Jay Cutler (86.0 rating last year) at quarterback. The Denver Broncos drop from 35-1 to 50-1 after trading Cutler to Chicago for Kyle Orton (79.6 rating) and draft picks. The Bears already have a solid defense, No. 7 last year in terms of efficiency, and they will reportedly allow Devin Hester to continue pulling double duty as a returner even though he’s now the No. 1 receiver on their depth chart – a very important and welcome decision for Chicago fans.
Seattle Seahawks: 60-1 to 35-1
Although the signing of RB Edgerrin James to back up newcomer Julius Jones is a step forward for the Seahawks, this line move is again more reflective of the marketplace expecting a strong recovery from QB Matt Hasselbeck, who missed most of 2008 with back injuries. Hasselbeck will enjoy throwing to T.J. Houshmandzadeh this year, but he’ll start the season without left tackle Walter Jones (knee) and center Chris Spencer (thigh).
With all this upward mobility, some teams had to watch their Super Bowl odds go down. Through no fault of their own, contenders like the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-1 to 15-2), the Indianapolis Colts (8-1 to 12-1), the Dallas Cowboys (9-1 to 12-1), and the Baltimore Ravens (11-1 to 18-1) are all available at lower prices on the futures market.
As for the over/under on regular season wins, those lines first went up Aug. 10 and went unchanged during the Aug. 19 market update. This gives us a small window of opportunity to act on teams like the Kansas City Chiefs (six wins), who look like they’ll be without QB Matt Cassel for at least Week 1 after he was sacked by the Seahawks and left Saturday night’s preseason game. There are worse options, though, than playing Tyler Thigpen (76.0 rating, 11 starts in 2008) for a game or two.
With the exhibition season just days from being over, it's time to revisit some of the numbers on the futures board and evaluate why a few odds have changed significantly. In Seattle, the return of Matt Hasselbeck to run the Seahawks' offense is the primary reason their futures have dropped 25 points, from 60:1 a few weeks ago to their current 35:1 mark. Meanwhile the public continues to pour it on the Patriots.
The most important month of the NFL season? August.
These preseason games might not have the allure of the Super Bowl, but what happens in August will play a significant role in deciding who gets to play in February. We’ve already seen a lot of movement on the Super Bowl betting odds to reflect the events of the exhibition season. Here are the most important line moves and the logic behind them.
New England Patriots: 6-1 to 4-1
This appears to be a purely market-driven move, as the betting public comes flooding in to welcome Tom Brady back to NFL action. The Pats were 4-1 to win the Super Bowl at this time last year, before Brady was knocked out of commission in the season opener. New England supporters are already on pins and needles after Brady left last Friday’s game against Washington with a sore right shoulder. But it doesn’t appear to be serious, as the Pats decided to release backup QB Kevin O’Connell over the weekend.
Philadelphia Eagles: 12-1 to 8-1
The Eagles were already getting some Super Bowl love, including from Yours Truly, and then they went and signed Michael Vick to a contract. He won’t start over Donovan McNabb, but he’s about as good an insurance policy you could ask for, and there’s always the option of using the Wildcat formation from time to time. It was uncertain at press time whether commissioner Roger Goodell will reinstate Vick before Week 6 of the regular season. Vick is expected to play extended minutes in Philadelphia’s Week 4 preseason matchup with the New York Jets; McNabb will sit.
Minnesota Vikings: 22-1 to 14-1
This move is mostly in response to the latest unretirement from Brett Favre. Quarterback has been a problem position for the Vikings ever since Daunte Culpepper messed up his knee in 2005. Favre (81.0 passer rating last year) will be a stabilizing force on the field, even though the buzz from the locker room is that many players prefer to have Tarvaris Jackson (76.5 career rating) calling the signals. Vikings supporters were also happy to learn earlier this month that the Williams Wall, aka defensive linemen Kevin and Pat Williams, won’t have to serve their four-game suspension for violating the league’s anti-doping policy – provided the federal courts choose not to get involved.
Chicago Bears: 28-1 to 18-1
Although the Bears are in the same division as Minnesota, their Super Bowl odds go up regardless with the addition of Jay Cutler (86.0 rating last year) at quarterback. The Denver Broncos drop from 35-1 to 50-1 after trading Cutler to Chicago for Kyle Orton (79.6 rating) and draft picks. The Bears already have a solid defense, No. 7 last year in terms of efficiency, and they will reportedly allow Devin Hester to continue pulling double duty as a returner even though he’s now the No. 1 receiver on their depth chart – a very important and welcome decision for Chicago fans.
Seattle Seahawks: 60-1 to 35-1
Although the signing of RB Edgerrin James to back up newcomer Julius Jones is a step forward for the Seahawks, this line move is again more reflective of the marketplace expecting a strong recovery from QB Matt Hasselbeck, who missed most of 2008 with back injuries. Hasselbeck will enjoy throwing to T.J. Houshmandzadeh this year, but he’ll start the season without left tackle Walter Jones (knee) and center Chris Spencer (thigh).
With all this upward mobility, some teams had to watch their Super Bowl odds go down. Through no fault of their own, contenders like the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-1 to 15-2), the Indianapolis Colts (8-1 to 12-1), the Dallas Cowboys (9-1 to 12-1), and the Baltimore Ravens (11-1 to 18-1) are all available at lower prices on the futures market.
As for the over/under on regular season wins, those lines first went up Aug. 10 and went unchanged during the Aug. 19 market update. This gives us a small window of opportunity to act on teams like the Kansas City Chiefs (six wins), who look like they’ll be without QB Matt Cassel for at least Week 1 after he was sacked by the Seahawks and left Saturday night’s preseason game. There are worse options, though, than playing Tyler Thigpen (76.0 rating, 11 starts in 2008) for a game or two.
