Alright so I will admit I was bored last night with no football on and my M's / Yankees bets both covered easily. So I got to thinking. Sportsbook generally make their money by using lines that force as close to 50/50 action as possible. So in general the public should be approx. 50/50. (I know there are exceptions I don't need a lecture about how this part of my thought process is wrong hear me out)
I would like to think that the combined betting intelligence of the SBRforums is higher than the general public. So why not combine that thinking and see what it comes up with.
With that in mind, I took almost all the picks from the Week 1 Preseason Contest and looked to see which games where picked the most and which sides where picked the most. I found an interesting trend.
The majority of the games were picked pretty evenly, however there were six week one matchups (not counting tonights games) that had a strong majority of the votes on one side. (I used the qualifier of atleast 2/3 or 66%).
CIN +3.5 (100%) v. NO -3.5 (0%)
SEA +3.5 (80%) v. SD -3.5 (20%)
NE +3.5 (72%) v. PHI -3.5 (28%)
DET -2.5 (70%) v. ATL -2.5 (30%)
OAK -0.5 (66.6%) v. DAL +0.5 (33.3%)
MINN -1.5 (66.6%) v. IND +1.5 (33.3%)
A combined 4-2! Not too bad.
Not really sure if I am ready to jump to any conclusions but I thought I would share. Now one interesting note on tonights games.
JAX +3.5 (54.5%) v. MIA -3.5 (45.5%)
NYG -2.5 (75%) v. CAR -2.5 (25%)
I already like the NYG, but this idea makes it a little interesting.
I would like to think that the combined betting intelligence of the SBRforums is higher than the general public. So why not combine that thinking and see what it comes up with.
With that in mind, I took almost all the picks from the Week 1 Preseason Contest and looked to see which games where picked the most and which sides where picked the most. I found an interesting trend.
The majority of the games were picked pretty evenly, however there were six week one matchups (not counting tonights games) that had a strong majority of the votes on one side. (I used the qualifier of atleast 2/3 or 66%).
CIN +3.5 (100%) v. NO -3.5 (0%)
SEA +3.5 (80%) v. SD -3.5 (20%)
NE +3.5 (72%) v. PHI -3.5 (28%)
DET -2.5 (70%) v. ATL -2.5 (30%)
OAK -0.5 (66.6%) v. DAL +0.5 (33.3%)
MINN -1.5 (66.6%) v. IND +1.5 (33.3%)
A combined 4-2! Not too bad.
Not really sure if I am ready to jump to any conclusions but I thought I would share. Now one interesting note on tonights games.
JAX +3.5 (54.5%) v. MIA -3.5 (45.5%)
NYG -2.5 (75%) v. CAR -2.5 (25%)
I already like the NYG, but this idea makes it a little interesting.
