Ravens topple Steelers from AFC North
Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers had a super season en route to their sixth Super Bowl title. But past victories will mean nothing when NFL teams tee it up in a few weeks to begin the 2009-10 season and everyone is back to a clean, 0-0 slate. Enter the Baltimore Ravens who have the better offensive line and special teams, and one of the top defenses that will be on the gridiron this campaign.
You can already smell the money.
The AFC North gave us the wonderful bounty that was the 2008 Baltimore Ravens at 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS, tied with the Titans and Giants for the most profitable record in the NFL. One of the reasons Baltimore was such a treasure trove was that the AFC North also gave us the Pittsburgh Steelers, who won the division at 12-4 (9-7 ATS) before going on to win the Super Bowl.
The 2008 division race could have gone either way – Pittsburgh’s 23-20 overtime victory over Baltimore (+6 on the road) in Week 4 was one of several pivotal moments in an epic battle. But look how short our attention spans have become. The Steelers are 5-7 favorites to win the AFC North again this year. The Ravens are second at 9-5, followed by two rebuilding programs in the Cleveland Browns (5-1) and the Cincinnati Bengals (9-1).
I don’t mean to bury the Steelers here at all. I’m just a simple value-based handicapper who expects Pittsburgh and Baltimore to have another close division race. Both teams will look very much the same as the models that were trotted out in 2008. There are a lot of young players on both teams, but the Ravens would appear to have more upside with second-year QB Joe Flacco, the surprise winner of the starting job out of training camp who went on to post an 80.3 passer rating on 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Pittsburgh fans will want more out of Ben Roethlisberger this season. He ate 46 sacks in 2008 (one behind New England’s Matt Cassel for the league lead) and was limited to an 80.1 QB rating on 17 TDs and 15 INTs. Those are Joe Flacco numbers. Big Ben was a creative enough scrambler to bail the Steelers out more often than not, but his offensive line was a mess last year, and it didn’t get any better with the loss of Marvel Smith to the 49ers. Flacco’s offensive line, on the other hand, is already superior to Roethlisberger’s and should improve further in 2009 with the addition of tackle Michael Oher from Ole Miss.
I cannot stress enough the value of the offensive line, both on the field and against the betting odds. These are the most important players on the field other than the quarterback, because they protect the quarterback. The Ravens have the advantage here. They also have better special teams, another highly undervalued part of the NFL. The return game was an issue for both clubs in 2008; the Ravens signed burner Chris Carr (24.7 career yards per kick return) away from Oakland to take care of that problem, while the Steelers are hoping for a full and healthy season from Mewelde Moore (19.1 yards per return). They might not get it – Moore has already been missing practices at training camp because of a hamstring injury.
These are the top two defensive teams in the league (Steelers were No. 1) in terms of efficiency, as anointed by the statheads at Football Outsiders. They’ll dominate again this year and make their offenses look better in the process. But there can be only one division winner; I’m obviously arguing for the Ravens as the value pick, but I’m also going to predict them straight up. There’s that whole “gunning for the champions” motif working against the Steelers as well.
The best quarterback in the division is Carson Palmer (88.9 career passer rating), at least when he’s healthy. The Bengals are counting on it, and they’ve bought Palmer an extra measure of protection with first-round draft pick Andre Smith, although his true calling at Alabama was run blocking. Cincinnati also added Tank Johnson to a defense that finished in the middle of the pack (No. 16) in efficiency last year. Adequate defense plus a healthy Palmer should put the Bengals back somewhere closer to .500 after going 4-11-1 (7-9 ATS) in 2008.
As for the Browns, Eric Mangini inherits a team that went 4-12 (6-9-1 ATS) and used four starting quarterbacks last year. This team is an unknown quantity at this point – if Brady Quinn beats Derek Anderson for the starting job, then Mangini’s sound fundamentals (and the arrival of first-round draft pick Alex Mack from USC at center) should keep Quinn’s development on the straight and narrow. Anderson simply doesn’t have the same upside.
Predicted order of finish: 1. Baltimore Ravens 2. Pittsburgh Steelers 3. Cincinnati Bengals 4. Cleveland Browns
Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers had a super season en route to their sixth Super Bowl title. But past victories will mean nothing when NFL teams tee it up in a few weeks to begin the 2009-10 season and everyone is back to a clean, 0-0 slate. Enter the Baltimore Ravens who have the better offensive line and special teams, and one of the top defenses that will be on the gridiron this campaign.
You can already smell the money.
The AFC North gave us the wonderful bounty that was the 2008 Baltimore Ravens at 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS, tied with the Titans and Giants for the most profitable record in the NFL. One of the reasons Baltimore was such a treasure trove was that the AFC North also gave us the Pittsburgh Steelers, who won the division at 12-4 (9-7 ATS) before going on to win the Super Bowl.
The 2008 division race could have gone either way – Pittsburgh’s 23-20 overtime victory over Baltimore (+6 on the road) in Week 4 was one of several pivotal moments in an epic battle. But look how short our attention spans have become. The Steelers are 5-7 favorites to win the AFC North again this year. The Ravens are second at 9-5, followed by two rebuilding programs in the Cleveland Browns (5-1) and the Cincinnati Bengals (9-1).
I don’t mean to bury the Steelers here at all. I’m just a simple value-based handicapper who expects Pittsburgh and Baltimore to have another close division race. Both teams will look very much the same as the models that were trotted out in 2008. There are a lot of young players on both teams, but the Ravens would appear to have more upside with second-year QB Joe Flacco, the surprise winner of the starting job out of training camp who went on to post an 80.3 passer rating on 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Pittsburgh fans will want more out of Ben Roethlisberger this season. He ate 46 sacks in 2008 (one behind New England’s Matt Cassel for the league lead) and was limited to an 80.1 QB rating on 17 TDs and 15 INTs. Those are Joe Flacco numbers. Big Ben was a creative enough scrambler to bail the Steelers out more often than not, but his offensive line was a mess last year, and it didn’t get any better with the loss of Marvel Smith to the 49ers. Flacco’s offensive line, on the other hand, is already superior to Roethlisberger’s and should improve further in 2009 with the addition of tackle Michael Oher from Ole Miss.
I cannot stress enough the value of the offensive line, both on the field and against the betting odds. These are the most important players on the field other than the quarterback, because they protect the quarterback. The Ravens have the advantage here. They also have better special teams, another highly undervalued part of the NFL. The return game was an issue for both clubs in 2008; the Ravens signed burner Chris Carr (24.7 career yards per kick return) away from Oakland to take care of that problem, while the Steelers are hoping for a full and healthy season from Mewelde Moore (19.1 yards per return). They might not get it – Moore has already been missing practices at training camp because of a hamstring injury.
These are the top two defensive teams in the league (Steelers were No. 1) in terms of efficiency, as anointed by the statheads at Football Outsiders. They’ll dominate again this year and make their offenses look better in the process. But there can be only one division winner; I’m obviously arguing for the Ravens as the value pick, but I’m also going to predict them straight up. There’s that whole “gunning for the champions” motif working against the Steelers as well.
The best quarterback in the division is Carson Palmer (88.9 career passer rating), at least when he’s healthy. The Bengals are counting on it, and they’ve bought Palmer an extra measure of protection with first-round draft pick Andre Smith, although his true calling at Alabama was run blocking. Cincinnati also added Tank Johnson to a defense that finished in the middle of the pack (No. 16) in efficiency last year. Adequate defense plus a healthy Palmer should put the Bengals back somewhere closer to .500 after going 4-11-1 (7-9 ATS) in 2008.
As for the Browns, Eric Mangini inherits a team that went 4-12 (6-9-1 ATS) and used four starting quarterbacks last year. This team is an unknown quantity at this point – if Brady Quinn beats Derek Anderson for the starting job, then Mangini’s sound fundamentals (and the arrival of first-round draft pick Alex Mack from USC at center) should keep Quinn’s development on the straight and narrow. Anderson simply doesn’t have the same upside.
Predicted order of finish: 1. Baltimore Ravens 2. Pittsburgh Steelers 3. Cincinnati Bengals 4. Cleveland Browns