Ryan's Hope: Atlanta Falcons get nod in NFC South
Following an outstanding rookie campaign, Matt Ryan is ready to lead the Atlanta Falcons to the top of the NFC South this season. Will the Panthers and Saints ground Ryan and the Birds?
A good quarterback means everything.
The NFC South was a wreck two years ago. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the only winning team in the division at 9-7. But just one year later, all four teams finished at .500 or better, both straight up and against the spread. None of the other divisions were able to pull that off. The reason? The Carolina Panthers (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) got a full season out of QB Jake Delhomme (84.7 passer rating), and the Atlanta Falcons (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) were an instant success behind rookie QB Matt Ryan (87.7 passer rating).
But what can they do for an encore? Barring injury, the Panthers and Falcons of 2009 will look very much like the 2008 models. The New Orleans Saints (8-8 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) have some upward mobility after improving their defense; however, putting together another profitable season after storming the pay window last year won’t be easy. That leaves the Buccaneers (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS), easily the most volatile commodity in the NFC South after firing coach Jon Gruden and allowing QB Jeff Garcia (94.6 passer rating) to sign with Oakland.
The betting odds have the Bucs at 5-1 to win the NFC South this year. To do so, they’ll need a Ryan-like rookie campaign from QB John Freeman, their first-round pick at the 2009 NFL Draft. In the olden days, a prospect like Freeman would be holding a clipboard while veterans Byron Leftwich (80.3 career passer rating) and Luke McCown (75.2) showed him the ropes. That scenario could still play out depending on what happens at training camp. But new coach Raheem Morris made the call to select Freeman No. 17 overall, and Morris famously said he was “married” to that selection, comparing Freeman to two-time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger.
The desire for Morris to compare Freeman to Roethlisberger is obvious. Freeman is Big Ben-sized at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds. Both men have very strong throwing arms and quick feet. But Freeman isn’t quite as accurate, plus he played in a Wildcat system with the Kansas State Wildcats, while Roethlisberger was airing it out in the MAC as a member of the Miami-Ohio RedHawks.
There is one other Big Ben comparison we can draw. Freeman was the third QB taken this year behind Detroit’s Matthew Stafford (No. 1 overall) and Mark Sanchez of the Jets (No. 5). Let’s have a look at the first-year seasons of other recent QBs in Freeman’s shoes – taken third at his position in the first round.
2006: Jay Cutler, Denver (No. 11 overall, five games, 88.5 passer rating)
2005: Jason Campbell, Washington (No. 25, zero games)
2004: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (No. 11, 14 games, 98.1 rating)
2003: Rex Grossman, Chicago (No. 22, three games, 74.8 rating)
2002: Patrick Ramsey, Washington (No. 32, nine games, 71.8 rating)
So can we pencil Tampa Bay in for the same 15-1 record (10-5-1 ATS) that the Steelers posted in 2004? Well, there are also wholesale changes to consider on defense under new coordinator Jim Bates, and the salvage of 2007 Pro Bowl tight end Kellen Winslow from the sinking Browns. Suffice to say the Bucs will be intriguing this year.
The safer pick to win the division is Atlanta at 2-1. This program is in its second year under Ryan and coach Mike Smith. The Falcons have added their own catching threat at tight end in 10-time Pro Bowler Tony Gonzalez, and they went heavy on defense at the draft, starting with tackle Peria Jerry from Ole Miss. The Panthers are slim 9-5 faves to defend their NFC South title, but made mostly cosmetic changes in the offseason and are always a Delhomme injury away from disaster.
The Saints (9-4) made more significant moves than the other two division contenders with new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and a major upgrade of the secondary, including first-round pick Malcolm Jenkins from Ohio State. The offense behind QB Drew Brees (96.2 rating) was ranked No. 4 in the league last year in efficiency, one spot ahead of Carolina’s. The Saints need to make that leap on defense to be considered a legitimate division contender; they’re certainly pointed in the right direction, but again, their betting value is questionable at best.
Predicted order of finish: 1. Atlanta Falcons 2. Carolina Panthers 3. New Orleans Saints 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Following an outstanding rookie campaign, Matt Ryan is ready to lead the Atlanta Falcons to the top of the NFC South this season. Will the Panthers and Saints ground Ryan and the Birds?
A good quarterback means everything.
The NFC South was a wreck two years ago. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the only winning team in the division at 9-7. But just one year later, all four teams finished at .500 or better, both straight up and against the spread. None of the other divisions were able to pull that off. The reason? The Carolina Panthers (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) got a full season out of QB Jake Delhomme (84.7 passer rating), and the Atlanta Falcons (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) were an instant success behind rookie QB Matt Ryan (87.7 passer rating).
But what can they do for an encore? Barring injury, the Panthers and Falcons of 2009 will look very much like the 2008 models. The New Orleans Saints (8-8 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) have some upward mobility after improving their defense; however, putting together another profitable season after storming the pay window last year won’t be easy. That leaves the Buccaneers (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS), easily the most volatile commodity in the NFC South after firing coach Jon Gruden and allowing QB Jeff Garcia (94.6 passer rating) to sign with Oakland.
The betting odds have the Bucs at 5-1 to win the NFC South this year. To do so, they’ll need a Ryan-like rookie campaign from QB John Freeman, their first-round pick at the 2009 NFL Draft. In the olden days, a prospect like Freeman would be holding a clipboard while veterans Byron Leftwich (80.3 career passer rating) and Luke McCown (75.2) showed him the ropes. That scenario could still play out depending on what happens at training camp. But new coach Raheem Morris made the call to select Freeman No. 17 overall, and Morris famously said he was “married” to that selection, comparing Freeman to two-time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger.
The desire for Morris to compare Freeman to Roethlisberger is obvious. Freeman is Big Ben-sized at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds. Both men have very strong throwing arms and quick feet. But Freeman isn’t quite as accurate, plus he played in a Wildcat system with the Kansas State Wildcats, while Roethlisberger was airing it out in the MAC as a member of the Miami-Ohio RedHawks.
There is one other Big Ben comparison we can draw. Freeman was the third QB taken this year behind Detroit’s Matthew Stafford (No. 1 overall) and Mark Sanchez of the Jets (No. 5). Let’s have a look at the first-year seasons of other recent QBs in Freeman’s shoes – taken third at his position in the first round.
2006: Jay Cutler, Denver (No. 11 overall, five games, 88.5 passer rating)
2005: Jason Campbell, Washington (No. 25, zero games)
2004: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (No. 11, 14 games, 98.1 rating)
2003: Rex Grossman, Chicago (No. 22, three games, 74.8 rating)
2002: Patrick Ramsey, Washington (No. 32, nine games, 71.8 rating)
So can we pencil Tampa Bay in for the same 15-1 record (10-5-1 ATS) that the Steelers posted in 2004? Well, there are also wholesale changes to consider on defense under new coordinator Jim Bates, and the salvage of 2007 Pro Bowl tight end Kellen Winslow from the sinking Browns. Suffice to say the Bucs will be intriguing this year.
The safer pick to win the division is Atlanta at 2-1. This program is in its second year under Ryan and coach Mike Smith. The Falcons have added their own catching threat at tight end in 10-time Pro Bowler Tony Gonzalez, and they went heavy on defense at the draft, starting with tackle Peria Jerry from Ole Miss. The Panthers are slim 9-5 faves to defend their NFC South title, but made mostly cosmetic changes in the offseason and are always a Delhomme injury away from disaster.
The Saints (9-4) made more significant moves than the other two division contenders with new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and a major upgrade of the secondary, including first-round pick Malcolm Jenkins from Ohio State. The offense behind QB Drew Brees (96.2 rating) was ranked No. 4 in the league last year in efficiency, one spot ahead of Carolina’s. The Saints need to make that leap on defense to be considered a legitimate division contender; they’re certainly pointed in the right direction, but again, their betting value is questionable at best.
Predicted order of finish: 1. Atlanta Falcons 2. Carolina Panthers 3. New Orleans Saints 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers