Danskeren - NFL

[Danskeren]

week 2:


#12 Cardinals +3.5
Won 200,-

#13 Titans -7
Lost 220,-

#14 Bears + 3
Won 200,-

#15 Panthers +6.5
Lost 220,-

#16 Seahawks +1.5
Lost 330,-

#17 Giants +3
Won 300,-

#18 Jets +3.5
Won 200,-

#19 Ravens +3
Won 300,-

#20 Giants ML
Won 200,-

[Danskeren]

#20 Giants ML
160 to win 200

[Danskeren]

Tonight so far:
4-3-0
+130,-

Overall:
8-5-0
+330
Two picks pending:

#17 Giants +3
365 to win 300

#20 Giants ML
160 to win 200

[Gaston Monescu]

Seahawks are such a disappointment...I should've faded myself at the half when it was evident that Hasselback was injured. A Seneca Wallace led team will be a catastrophe.

[rezkoness69]

lookin alright so far in this young season dansk...not so for myself

[Danskeren]

Week 2:
6-3-0
+630,-

Overall:
10-5-0 - 67%
+830,-

[Danskeren]

#1 Rams under 5.5 games 0-2
#2 Patriots over 11.5 games 1-1
#3 Tamba under 6.5 games 0-2
#4 Ravens over 8.5 games 2-0

- Rams, Tamba are just as bad i thought they would be.
- Ravens are as just as good as i thought they would be.
- Patriots will have problems covering the 11.5 line - but let's see.

So far 3 of 4 are off to a perfect start - no complains .

[Joe Dogs]

Another profitable week,keep it rolling......Jets came into game with Patriots with allot of emotion, might be good fade next week against Tennessee.

[Danskeren]

Lines are moving!
Just booked:

#23 Titans +2.5
275 to win 250

# 24 Saints -4
280 to win 250

[Danskeren]

Leans:

Seahawks (+1.5)
Fade the Bears, who took down the champs.
- Don't play this yet!


Steelers -4.5
The champs just lost outright - they are pissed.

Rams +6.5
No idea if i got what it takes to make a play on the Rams. But this could be the time to do it. The public is all over the Green bay as expected, but the line drops from the keynumber Rams +7 to +6,5.

Browns +13 opens as a 13 point dog - Everybody like the Ravens after two wins ATS. Let's see how this line will move.

[Danskeren]

Another profitable week,keep it rolling......Jets came into game with Patriots with allot of emotion, might be good fade next week against Tennessee.

Allready on it.

[Danskeren]

lookin alright so far in this young season dansk...not so for myself

Thanks.

[Danskeren]

Monday night football:

I like Miami in this spot:
- Home-dog at monday night.
- The scoreboard after the Dolphins week 1 game, is not telling anything about that game. they were only outgained by 22 yards, against a great defense, they just made to many mistakes. They wont make as many TO as they did in week 1.

#21 Dolphins +3
200,- to win 200,-

[Danskeren]

Glad I bought the Saints earlier today.
Line is at 5.5 by now.

Can't figure out the Seahawk's line. I wait and until there is anything new about Matt H.

[Danskeren]

Another lean:

SF 49'ers +7 + Under 40,5

The Vikes had a really loong preseason, and their regular season starts on sunday. No more walkovers.
In this matchup they meet a terrific running defense - they only allowed 53 Y/PG. So Peterson can't just walk around with the ball and score whenever he wants to.

Vikes also has also played good defense, especially the passing defense is great (allowed 157 Y/PG so far - 5th in the NFL) but they haven't executed as well against the run. (allowed 109 yards per game (15th in the NFL)
And remember they played some crappy teams!

I think the ball will stay a lot on the ground, and the winner will be the one who can shut down Gore or Peterson. The Vikes though has a better passing offense and a better passing defense than the 49'ers, so San Fransisco has to trust their rushing-game.

The important stats again:
49'ers rushing defense 53 Y/PG
Vikes rushing defense 109 Y/PG

A low scoring game with the 49'ers to stay within a TD.

[Danskeren]

Played another future:

#22 Giants to win division.
200,- to win 200,-

Redskins (1-1): Wont win. No need to wast time on them.
Cowboys (1-1): Was taken down by the giants at home this weekend. I feel quite confident that Giants will win this matchup at home too.
Eagles (1-1): is beaten up after two weeks (Asante Samuel, Dimitri Patterson, Mcnabb, DeSean Jackson and Brian Westbrook)
Westbrook, Mcnabb and Jackson are of course the most important players, and their injuries aren't very serious. But, after just two weeks with all theese minor injuries. It takes away the focus.

Giants (2-0) will take this one.

[Danskeren]

To avoid confusion:

Futures:
#1 Rams under 5.5 games.
193 to win 250
#2 Patriots over 11.5 games
208.5 to win150
#3 Tamba under 6.5 games.
330 to win 200
#4 Ravens over 8.5 games
330 to win 200
#22 Giants to win division.
200 to win 200

Week 2:
#21 Dolphins +3
200,- to win 200,-

Week 3:
#23 Titans +2.5
275 to win 250

# 24 Saints -4
280 to win 250

Leans week 3:
49'ers +7 and under 40,5
Seahawks +1.5
Steelers -4.5
Rams +6.5

10-5-0 - 67%
+830

[Dan]

Thanks for the analysis. Any leans on the total tonight?

[Danskeren]

Thanks for the analysis. Any leans on the total tonight?

No problem.
- No.

[Danskeren]

Followed this movement the last couple of hours:
The line has been Miami +3 a loong time with 75% on Colts.

- Now Miami changed from +100 to favor Colts at the 3-point spread at some books.

I'll find out what to do in a few min.

[Danskeren]

I just let my pick roll .

[Dan]

Good luck

[Danskeren]

#21 Dolphins +3 Lost

[Danskeren]

#25 49'ers +7
287,5,- to win 250,-


#26 49'ers under 40
220,- to win 200,-

[Danskeren]

10-6-0 - 62%
+630

I intend to stay over the 60%.

[Danskeren]

The play on the Steelers might be a play on the ML. Can't see the champs loss two in a row. The under could also be the play - after we have seen the Bengal's great D.

I like the Cardinals too. Colts pulled of two cloose wins. I think they are ready for a letdown against a terrific Warner. Dont forget the travel.

I will make my shot at the Seahawks. I'll just see if i can hit a higher line. a +3 dog would be perfect.

Other slight Leans:
Jets - Titans UNDER - To great defenses, in a game which are very important for Titan's season. This will be ugly.
Ravens -Browns OVER - Ravens can make 38 poitns themselves. But will the browns make any?
I scratch my lean on the Browns - going into the season i thought they were a underrated team, now i found out that they just are bad.
Ravens -13 could be a play instead. I think they will score 30+ and the defense need to show how good they are on. Also on the scoerboard.

If you consider to play one of the games, i have to point out the 49'ers. This is the play of the week in my opinion.

[Danskeren]

Let's hope 49'ers shows up.

#27 First half: 49'ers +3.5.
The Vikes has started slow in both of their games against week opponents.
49'ers has been in front by halftime in both of theirs against much stronger teams.

[Danskeren]

Week 3:

#23 Titans +2.5
275 to win 250

# 24 Saints -4
280 to win 250

#25 49'ers +7
287,5,- to win 250,-

#26 49'ers under 40
220,- to win 200,-

#27 First half: 49'ers +3.5.
210,- to win 200


Leans

- Steelers and maybe a small play on the under.
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
- Giants
- Rams
- Chargers

[Danskeren]

The Steelers is -3.5 now at 5dimes.. Can't make a play on a 70% public-favorite with RLM.

[textbook winner]

that seems ok

[Danskeren]

Parlay:

Fever ML (WNBA)
Cardinals ML

160,- to win 225,-

Fevers in a bounce back spot, after getting killed in Detroit.
Talked about Cardinals before.

[PowerMovePicks]

Why are you leaning under on the Steeler/Bengal matchup? Both D's have played well thus far but this is a historical shootout

[Danskeren]

Why are you leaning under on the Steeler/Bengal matchup? Both D's have played well thus far but this is a historical shootout

When i cap a game i don't look at years old facts.
I look at the "situation" of the game. The motivation, revenge, injuries, travel and and so on.
I dont give anything to fact that both matchups in '08 went over. So just forget the last season, and the season before. In my opinion it's useless.

By the way, i dont think the under will be a play.

[Danskeren]

#28 Broncos -1.5
275,- to win 250,-
The Raiders got lucky in week two. They were outgained by 243 yards, and managed only to get 11 1st downs. The Chiefs had 25. Take a look at J. Russel's stats. Pathetic.
Broncos are playing strong defense, and killed the Browns with more than 20 points.

#29 Texans -3.5
275,- to win 250,-
The Jaguars did not manage to shut the strong Cardinals passing offense down. The same thing will happen here. Jaguars are looking week, and this will be a looong season for them. Texans got back in their game, after being down by 14 points, and they won by 3 on the road against Titans. Not bad. They are returning home, and will be ready to play football in front of the homecrowd.

[Danskeren]

Really like the card for this week..

Leans:
Lions +6.5
Rams +6.5
Cardinals -3
Steelers -3.5

I don't know what to do with the Seahawks. I love their situation, with them loosing their last game and the Bears beating the Champs. But with so many guys out, and this strange line. I dont know..