Danskeren - NFL

[Danskeren]

Welcome

I will throughout the season post my picks in here.
Comments and leans are more than welcome.

[Danskeren]

For the season:

Rams under 5.5 games. (175 to win 227.5)

Patriots over 11.5 games (175 to win 124.25)

[Danskeren]

Write up:
Rams under 5.5 games

Rams had a terrible 08-09 season and i can't see why the upcomming sesaon will get any better.
They've lost Torry Holt and Orlando Pace, which is two guys, that i whink will be impossible to replace.

Furthermore Rams has a though schedule:

Week 1: @ Seattle Seahawks
Week 2: @ Washington Redskins
Week 3: vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 4: @ San Francisco 49ers
Week 5: vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 6: @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 7: vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 8: @ Detroit Lions
Week 9: Bye
Week 10: vs. New Orleans Saints
Week 11: vs. Arizona Cardinals
Week 12: vs. Seattle Seahawks
Week 13: @ Chicago Bears
Week 14: @ Tennessee Titans
Week 15: vs. Houston Texans
Week 16: @ Arizona Cardinals
Week 17: vs. San Francisco 49ers

I can't see the Rams winning more than 5 of these games!

In the last 2 years Rams has won 3 og 2 games, and i dont think they will win more games in the upcomming season, than they did in the last two.

[Danskeren]

Write up:
Patriots over 11.5 games

Last years Patriots won 11 games and missed the playoffs. Matt Cassel lead the patriots last season, and he did really well. But - He is not Tom Brady. Brady will be back and will not let anything stand between him and the playoffs.

Schedule:

vs. Bills
@ Jets
vs Falcons
vs Ravens
@ Broncos
vs Titans
@Buccaneers
vs Bye
vs Dolphins
@Colts
vs Jets
@ Saints
@ Dolphins
vs Panthers
@ Bills
vs Jaguars
@ Texans

I think Patriots has a great schedule, because they meet Falcons, Ravens, Titans, and Panthers at home.

With a lot of motivation, a good schedule and Brady back - I say the Patriots gets it done with at least a 12-4 record.

[Joe Dogs]

Will keep an eye on your posts.Best of luck this NFl season.

[SportNut]

No love for the Rams...lol

[Danskeren]

Lean for week one:

Ravens -8.5.
The most feared defense in the NFL are ready to roll again. Unfortunately for KC - they are in their way.

More to come.

[Danskeren]

I came a bit to late to get the line i wanted at the Ravens, and now its up to -10.

Found another game i like:

SF +7.5 (bought a point)

First of all:
Super bowl losers haven't covered the spread in ages!!
Secondly:
I think Cardinals - 6.5 will attract a lot of public attention - ("Only a TD lead"!?)
And in the end:
K. Warner is still dealing with a hip-surgery, and even though he schould be over it, he is definately not one of the thoughest QB's in the league.

[Danskeren]

For the season:

Tamba under 6.5 games. 330 to win 200.

This line is off. As i see it, Tamba has the thoughest schedule this year, and they will get blown away tons of times. Furthermore Jeff Jagodzinski (OC) got fired in Tamba this week.

Bad for Tamba - Great for my money.

[Danskeren]

A little parlay.

James Blake to win 4th set. (Tennis livebet)
Ravens -6.5 (bought 3.5 points) reg season
Patriots -6.5 (bought 4 points) reg. season

100,- to win 200,-

[Danskeren]

For the season:

Ravens over 8.5 games 330 to win 200.

Can you imagine the Ravens going 8-8 this season?
- Me neither.

[Danskeren]

So just to sum up my season picks:
(I added a bit to my Patriots and Rams pick)

#1 Rams under 5.5 games. (193 to win 250)
#2 Patriots over 11.5 games (208.5 to win150)
#3 Tamba under 6.5 games. (330 to win 200).
#4 Ravens over 8.5 games (330 to win 200)



James Blake pulled it off yesterday, so let's hope Ravens and patriots will do the same in week 1:

#5
Parlay:
James Blake to win 4th set. (Tennis livebet) . Win
Ravens -6.5 (bought 3.5 points) reg season
Patriots -6.5 (bought 4 points) reg. season
100,- to win 200,-


I'll watch the lines for week 1 a little longer before i make my plays.

[Danskeren]

Here We Go:

#6 Packers -3.5
165,- to win 150,-
#7 Seahawks -7 (bought 0.5 points)
180,- to win 150,-

Leans:

Titans +5 (hopefully more)
The public is pounding the Steelers. If the line moves up a point, I'll be there.

SF 49'ers +7.5 (Maybe a 1-point buy)
Allready talked about this one.

[Danskeren]

#8 Titans +7.5 (1-point buy)
280 to win 200.

[Danskeren]

#8 Win

1-0-0
+ 200,-

[Danskeren]

#9 SF 49'ers +7.5 (1.5 point buy)
280 to win 200.

[Danskeren]

#10 Browns +4
230 to win 200

86% on the Vikes. And the line is going from 4 down to 3.5 at some books? I'll take the homedog here against the hyped Vikes.

I laid a bit more on #6
Now:

#6 Packers -3.5
222.5 to win 200

[Danskeren]

Sum up:

#1 to #4 Futures.

#5
Parlay:
James Blake to win 4th set. (Tennis livebet) . Win
Ravens -6.5 (bought 3.5 points) reg season
Patriots -6.5 (bought 4 points) reg. season
100,- to win 200,-

#6 Packers -3.5
222.5 to win 200

#7Seahawks -7 (bought 0.5 points)
180 to win 150


#8 Titans +7.5 (1-point buy) WIN
280 to win 200.


#9 SF 49'ers +7.5 (1.5 point buy)
280 to win 200.

#10 Browns +4
230 to win 200

1-0-0
+ 200,-

[Danskeren]

#1 to #4 Futures.

#5
Parlay:
James Blake to win 4th set. (Tennis livebet) . Win
Ravens -6.5 (bought 3.5 points) reg season Win
Patriots -6.5 (bought 4 points) reg. season Pending
100,- to win 200,-

#6 Packers -3.5 Win
222.5 to win 200

#7Seahawks -7 (bought 0.5 points) Win
180 to win 150


#8 Titans +7.5 (1-point buy) Win
280 to win 200.


#9 SF 49'ers +7.5 (1.5 point buy) Win
280 to win 200.

#10 Browns +4 Loss
230 to win 200

4-1-0 - 80%
+ 520,-

[RICHIE801]

Very Nice Job. And how bout them Packers last night?

[Danskeren]

#11 Patriots -12
220 to win 200

[Danskeren]

On to week 2:

#12 Cardinals +3.5
220 to win 200


#13 Titans -7
220 to win 200


#14 Bears + 3
250 to win 200


#15 Panthers +6.5
220 to win 200


Leaning towards:

Seahawks
Giants

[Danskeren]

Very Nice Job. And how bout them Packers last night?

A. Rodgers saved me.

[Danskeren]

Week 1:
(My parlays wont count in my record)

4-2 - 66%
+200,-

My futures are looking good so far:

#1 Rams under 5.5 games. (193 to win 250) Rams Lost
#2 Patriots over 11.5 games (208.5 to win150) Patriots won
#3 Tamba under 6.5 games. (330 to win 200). Tamba Lost
#4 Ravens over 8.5 games (330 to win 200) Ravens won.

[Danskeren]

Adding:

Seahawks +1.5
220 to win 200

Giants +3
240 to win 200

[Danskeren]

Week 2:

#12 Cardinals +3.5
220 to win 200

#13 Titans -7
220 to win 200

#14 Bears + 3
250 to win 200

#15 Panthers +6.5
220 to win 200

#16 Seahawks +1.5
220 to win 200

#17 Giants +3
240 to win 200

[Danskeren]

Early movement:

The Cardinals moved from the opening +5.5 to +3.5 (were i bought it) and now it's at +3.
- Like this movement with only 55% on Cardinals we see an early 2.5 point movement.

Panthers moved first from the the opening keynumber +7 to +6.5 (were i bought it) and now to +6 with 77% on Atlanta
- Great!

Titans moved from from the keynumber -7 to -6.5, with the public heavy on them.
- This movement looks like the one in the panthers game, I'm just on the other side of it. I still like my play though.

[Danskeren]

Can't sit back and watch the linemovement on the patriots game anymore. 70% onthem, and yet the line has moved from patriots -6.5 to -3.5.

#18 Jets +3.5 220 to win 200

I have a slight lean to the Ravens. - might be a ML play.

[Danskeren]

My thoughts on my week 2 picks:

# 12 Cardinals +3.5
220 to win 200
The cardinals lost at home, and really need this win. They proved though that they can stop a running team, so i think the Jaguars will get some problem at this point. Cardinal's offense didn't look good in most of the game, but it got better in the end, and i think this positive development will continue in this game. I like the line movement too.

# 13 Titans -7
220 to win 200
The Titans looked really strong against the Steelers, and with the OT loss, they will be hungry after their forst win. Houston did not impress at all.

14 Bears + 3
250 to win 200
Interesting line here. Simply can't go with the 90% on the Steelers. I fade the OT winner in this spot, and choose the Bears that managed to keep it cloose against the favored Packers, even though Cutler played a terrible game. He need to prove himself in this spot at home.

#15 Panthers +6.5
220 to win 200
The Panthers got humiliated at home, and needs to get back on track. The public are all over the falcons, and i got the linemovement on my site.


#16 Seahawks +1.5
220 to win 200
49'ers didn't impress me at all, they had some offensive problems running the Ball, and i have nothing left for their medium QB. The Seahawks killed the Rams as i thought they would and will try to make a streak here. False favourite if you ask me.

#17 Giants +3
240 to win 200
This is a cloose matchup, and the line should be around PK. Take the points in this matchup.

#18 Jets +3.5
220 to win 200
The patriot's Defense disapointed me, as they wasn't able to put presure on the Bills rookie O-line. Brady did good, but he is facing a better defense in this game and Jets will be fired at home.
- This line movement is the best in the NFL so far.

#19 Ravens +3
210 to win 200
The Ravens outgained the Chiefs with 313 yards.
However the Chargers gained 317 against Raider's 366.
LT did'nt look good. Flacco and the O-line did a great job.
Good luck.

[Joe Dogs]

Nice opening week,keep it going.Of your selections for week two which game do you favor the most.Bol

[Danskeren]

Better take a break now with 8 games and 1800,- pending.
Comments are more than welcome.

[Danskeren]

Nice opening week,keep it going.Of your selections for week two which game do you favor the most.Bol

good question.
I don't have a "play of the week"

I might be a bit more comfortable with my Ravens and Seahawks pick than the rest, but i actually don't feel i have a "best pick".

Good luck.

[Glitch]

cardinals are lookin sloppy...not just game 1 but in the preseason too, and dont forget the jags almost beat peyton manning and the colts......titans is probably a really solid pick for this week. goodluck

[Danskeren]

cardinals are lookin sloppy...not just game 1 but in the preseason too, and dont forget the jags almost beat peyton manning and the colts......titans is probably a really solid pick for this week. goodluck

The colts should have won that game by much more than the two points. They outgained Jags with 365-228. The only place this game was close, was on the scoreboard.

You too.

[Danskeren]

I laid a bit more on my favourite plays, after a great night in soccer .

Now:

#16 Seahawks +1.5
330 to win 300

#17 Giants +3
365 to win 300

#19 Ravens +3
315 to win 300