Taking a Chance: Patriots & Eagles in Super Bowl
Taking a Chance: Patriots & Eagles in Super Bowl
Tom Brady vs. Donovan McNabb. Bill Belichick vs. Andy Reid. NFL preseason training camps have just opened, but that's the matchup foreseen for Super Bowl XLIV in Miami next February.
I am ready for some football.
Hank Williams Jr. has 50 studio albums to his name. He plans to run for Senate (as a Republican) in 2012. But the one thing he’ll be remembered for is singing the opening theme to Monday Night Football. The NFL is that important to people.
I’m people. The opening of training camps this week is like opening a window and letting in the sunshine. Pretty soon, you’ll find me at the local watering hole watching seven different NFL games on seven different TVs. It’s a tough life. For now, it’s time to look at the futures market, and the most important item on the menu is who’s going to win the Super Bowl.
Williams will be a bit miffed to see his favorite team, the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers, is losing ground to the New England Patriots at the top of the betting odds. The Patriots have moved from 6-1 at the open to 4-1 at press time; the Steelers are down from 7-1 to 15-2. Miffed, but not surprised. There’s a lot of love out there for the Patriots now that QB Tom Brady and his three Super Bowl rings are back in New England.
There was a similar betting surge two years ago when the Patriots picked up Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte’ Stallworth (remember when Stallworth used to get second billing in that trio?) in a substantial offseason upgrade of the receiving corps. The Pats went undefeated all the way to the Super Bowl before losing to the New York Giants. Now, since I’m here simply to make a prediction and not worry about betting value, I’m going with the market and making the Patriots my AFC representative for SB44.
Matt Cassel (21 TDs, 11 INTs, 89.4 passer rating) did a very good job of posting Brady-like numbers after Brady himself (92.9 career passer rating) was knocked out of commission in Week 1 of the 2008 season. I think the market is prone to overstating the difference between what these two QBs can do in this system. But Brady’s experience makes him a safe candidate to at least maintain that performance level, and that level should go up in tandem with the improved quality of players surrounding him in 2009.
If his knee holds up. Which I’m gambling on, as everyone else is. There are other Matt Cassels out there if Brady can’t get it done anymore in real NFL games.
The top Super Bowl favorite from the NFC is the Giants at 9-1, down from 8-1 at the open. I’m not confident in how well they’ll perform without defensive co-ordinator Steve Spagnuolo, now the head coach of the St. Louis Rams. So I’m looking at three other teams:
The Cowboys fall off my list because I don’t buy the line that they’re a better team without Terrell Owens and his 1,052 yards receiving. More harmonious, sure. The Cardinals are in the same bin with the Giants because former offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley is now coaching Matt Cassel and the Kansas City Chiefs. That leaves the Eagles, who have knocked on the Super Bowl door many times with Donovan McNabb (85.9 career passer rating), but have only gotten in once – with Terrell Owens at wideout.
That was five years ago, so the Eagles have had time to reload. DeSean Jackson (912 yards receiving) looks like a star, and he’ll have a fresh new sidekick in first-round draft pick Jeremy Maclin once he signs on the dotted line. McNabb will also have some support in the backfield with potential second-round steal LeSean McCoy, the No. 4 ranked tailback in the 2009 draft. They’ll play behind a great offensive line, and after they score, they’ll trot off the field and let a great defense take over.
I’m calling Patriots and Eagles in the Super Bowl. I foresee a betting line similar to the New England -7 that went on the board at SB39. And just like it was back then (and against the Panthers the year before, and against the Giants), while I would fade the Pats because they’re completely overvalued, I’d still predict them to win. They usually do.
Chance’s Never Too Early Super Bowl XLIV Prediction: Patriots-27, Eagles-24
Tom Brady vs. Donovan McNabb. Bill Belichick vs. Andy Reid. NFL preseason training camps have just opened, but that's the matchup foreseen for Super Bowl XLIV in Miami next February.
I am ready for some football.
Hank Williams Jr. has 50 studio albums to his name. He plans to run for Senate (as a Republican) in 2012. But the one thing he’ll be remembered for is singing the opening theme to Monday Night Football. The NFL is that important to people.
I’m people. The opening of training camps this week is like opening a window and letting in the sunshine. Pretty soon, you’ll find me at the local watering hole watching seven different NFL games on seven different TVs. It’s a tough life. For now, it’s time to look at the futures market, and the most important item on the menu is who’s going to win the Super Bowl.
Williams will be a bit miffed to see his favorite team, the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers, is losing ground to the New England Patriots at the top of the betting odds. The Patriots have moved from 6-1 at the open to 4-1 at press time; the Steelers are down from 7-1 to 15-2. Miffed, but not surprised. There’s a lot of love out there for the Patriots now that QB Tom Brady and his three Super Bowl rings are back in New England.
There was a similar betting surge two years ago when the Patriots picked up Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte’ Stallworth (remember when Stallworth used to get second billing in that trio?) in a substantial offseason upgrade of the receiving corps. The Pats went undefeated all the way to the Super Bowl before losing to the New York Giants. Now, since I’m here simply to make a prediction and not worry about betting value, I’m going with the market and making the Patriots my AFC representative for SB44.
Matt Cassel (21 TDs, 11 INTs, 89.4 passer rating) did a very good job of posting Brady-like numbers after Brady himself (92.9 career passer rating) was knocked out of commission in Week 1 of the 2008 season. I think the market is prone to overstating the difference between what these two QBs can do in this system. But Brady’s experience makes him a safe candidate to at least maintain that performance level, and that level should go up in tandem with the improved quality of players surrounding him in 2009.
If his knee holds up. Which I’m gambling on, as everyone else is. There are other Matt Cassels out there if Brady can’t get it done anymore in real NFL games.
The top Super Bowl favorite from the NFC is the Giants at 9-1, down from 8-1 at the open. I’m not confident in how well they’ll perform without defensive co-ordinator Steve Spagnuolo, now the head coach of the St. Louis Rams. So I’m looking at three other teams:
- Philadelphia Eagles (12-1 at open, 11-1 current)
- Dallas Cowboys (9-1, 11-1)
- Arizona Cardinals (15-1, 20-1)
The Cowboys fall off my list because I don’t buy the line that they’re a better team without Terrell Owens and his 1,052 yards receiving. More harmonious, sure. The Cardinals are in the same bin with the Giants because former offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley is now coaching Matt Cassel and the Kansas City Chiefs. That leaves the Eagles, who have knocked on the Super Bowl door many times with Donovan McNabb (85.9 career passer rating), but have only gotten in once – with Terrell Owens at wideout.
That was five years ago, so the Eagles have had time to reload. DeSean Jackson (912 yards receiving) looks like a star, and he’ll have a fresh new sidekick in first-round draft pick Jeremy Maclin once he signs on the dotted line. McNabb will also have some support in the backfield with potential second-round steal LeSean McCoy, the No. 4 ranked tailback in the 2009 draft. They’ll play behind a great offensive line, and after they score, they’ll trot off the field and let a great defense take over.
I’m calling Patriots and Eagles in the Super Bowl. I foresee a betting line similar to the New England -7 that went on the board at SB39. And just like it was back then (and against the Panthers the year before, and against the Giants), while I would fade the Pats because they’re completely overvalued, I’d still predict them to win. They usually do.
Chance’s Never Too Early Super Bowl XLIV Prediction: Patriots-27, Eagles-24
