San Diego Chargers will rule a weak AFC West
San Diego Chargers will rule a weak AFC West
A four-game win streak at the end was just enough to secure the AFC West title a year ago for the Chargers at 8-8. Now Philip Rivers and San Diego are the prohibitive favorites in what should once again be a weak division overall. The Broncos appear to be in for a tumultuous first season without Mike Shanahan, with the Chiefs rebuilding under new GM Scott Pioli and the Raiders once again bringing up the quartet's rear.
The San Diego Chargers are going to win the AFC West this year.
We won’t know the truth of that statement until next January, but the futures market is fully confident in the Chargers at 1-5 betting odds to retain their division title. Confident despite San Diego’s 8-8 record (7-8-1 ATS) last year, when a plague of injuries descended on the club and nearly knocked the Super Bowl contender out of the playoffs. Confident despite the decline former MVP RB LaDainian Tomlinson (3.8 yards per carry in 2008) experienced in his age 29 season.
It’s easy to be confident when the other three teams in the AFC West are this messed up. The Denver Broncos (8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS) lost the division title to San Diego on tiebreakers, prompting owner Pat Bowlen to fire head coach Mike Shanahan and replace him with former New England Patriots offensive co-ordinator Josh McDaniels. Then Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler (25 TDs, 18 INTs, 86.0 passer rating) found out he was being dangled in front of the Pats as trade bait for QB Matt Cassel. That deal didn’t happen, but the attempt was enough to drive a wedge between Cutler and the front office. He was eventually shipped to the Chicago Bears in a package for QB Kyle Orton (18 TDs, 12 INTs, 79.6 passer rating).
The drop-off between Cutler and Orton is not as big as advertised, but it’s real. Setting Shanahan adrift is the more contentious move; he was running the show, and the Broncos didn’t make out very well without him at the draft table. This was the No. 31-ranked defense in the league last year in terms of efficiency, better only than the winless Detroit Lions. So taking RB Knowshon Moreno from Georgia with the 12th overall pick to join a crowded backfield makes little sense.
It’s unlikely that Moreno will have the same impact on the Broncos that San Diego got from its No. 12 pick in 2005. LB Shawne Merriman was the Defensive Rookie of the Year and went to three straight Pro Bowls before missing 2008 to torn knee ligaments. Merriman will be back in 2009. Joining him on the roster will be the four linemen (two offense, two defense) the Chargers took with their first four picks at this year’s draft; all four could contribute right away. No wonder the AFC West looks like a one-horse town. The Chargers have an over/under of 10.5 regular season wins on the board, and the Broncos are second in the division with 6.5 wins.
The Kansas City Chiefs are third with 6.0 wins, but if anyone is going to sneak up and challenge San Diego in the AFC West, it’s the Chiefs – and at a healthy payout of 11-2, the same as Denver. It was incoming Chiefs GM Scott Pioli who was able to pry Cassel (and veteran LB Mike Vrabel) from the Patriots for a second-round pick. Pioli was New England’s vice president of player personnel from 2002 to 2008, covering all three of their Super Bowl championships. He had an excellent draft this year, also going heavy on linemen, and new coach Todd Haley was the offensive co-ordinator for the Arizona Cardinals for the past two seasons.
While Kansas City gives the rest of the league an object lesson in how to rebuild, the Oakland Raiders (5.5 regular season wins, 14-1 odds to win the division) are stuck in neutral. Owner Al Davis is addicted to speed – velocity, that is – and the Raiders passed over WR Michael Crabtree at the draft to take WR Darius Heyward-Bey seventh overall out of Maryland. Heyward-Bey is faster than Crabtree, but otherwise more of a project who will be starting right away only because Oakland’s cupboard is bare at wideout.
There’s always room for hope in the Black Hole. QB JaMarcus Russell (13 TDs, eight INTs) and RB Darren McFadden (499 yards on 4.4 yards per carry) have been learning on the fly just like Heyward-Bey will, and they get to develop behind a good offensive line. PK Sebastian Janikowski (3-of-7 from 50 yards or longer) has the length to salvage his fair share of stalled drives. But can Oakland get within his range, let alone in the end zone?
Predicted order of finish: 1. San Diego Chargers 2. Kansas City Chiefs 3. Denver Broncos 4. Oakland Raiders
A four-game win streak at the end was just enough to secure the AFC West title a year ago for the Chargers at 8-8. Now Philip Rivers and San Diego are the prohibitive favorites in what should once again be a weak division overall. The Broncos appear to be in for a tumultuous first season without Mike Shanahan, with the Chiefs rebuilding under new GM Scott Pioli and the Raiders once again bringing up the quartet's rear.
The San Diego Chargers are going to win the AFC West this year.
We won’t know the truth of that statement until next January, but the futures market is fully confident in the Chargers at 1-5 betting odds to retain their division title. Confident despite San Diego’s 8-8 record (7-8-1 ATS) last year, when a plague of injuries descended on the club and nearly knocked the Super Bowl contender out of the playoffs. Confident despite the decline former MVP RB LaDainian Tomlinson (3.8 yards per carry in 2008) experienced in his age 29 season.
It’s easy to be confident when the other three teams in the AFC West are this messed up. The Denver Broncos (8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS) lost the division title to San Diego on tiebreakers, prompting owner Pat Bowlen to fire head coach Mike Shanahan and replace him with former New England Patriots offensive co-ordinator Josh McDaniels. Then Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler (25 TDs, 18 INTs, 86.0 passer rating) found out he was being dangled in front of the Pats as trade bait for QB Matt Cassel. That deal didn’t happen, but the attempt was enough to drive a wedge between Cutler and the front office. He was eventually shipped to the Chicago Bears in a package for QB Kyle Orton (18 TDs, 12 INTs, 79.6 passer rating).
The drop-off between Cutler and Orton is not as big as advertised, but it’s real. Setting Shanahan adrift is the more contentious move; he was running the show, and the Broncos didn’t make out very well without him at the draft table. This was the No. 31-ranked defense in the league last year in terms of efficiency, better only than the winless Detroit Lions. So taking RB Knowshon Moreno from Georgia with the 12th overall pick to join a crowded backfield makes little sense.
It’s unlikely that Moreno will have the same impact on the Broncos that San Diego got from its No. 12 pick in 2005. LB Shawne Merriman was the Defensive Rookie of the Year and went to three straight Pro Bowls before missing 2008 to torn knee ligaments. Merriman will be back in 2009. Joining him on the roster will be the four linemen (two offense, two defense) the Chargers took with their first four picks at this year’s draft; all four could contribute right away. No wonder the AFC West looks like a one-horse town. The Chargers have an over/under of 10.5 regular season wins on the board, and the Broncos are second in the division with 6.5 wins.
The Kansas City Chiefs are third with 6.0 wins, but if anyone is going to sneak up and challenge San Diego in the AFC West, it’s the Chiefs – and at a healthy payout of 11-2, the same as Denver. It was incoming Chiefs GM Scott Pioli who was able to pry Cassel (and veteran LB Mike Vrabel) from the Patriots for a second-round pick. Pioli was New England’s vice president of player personnel from 2002 to 2008, covering all three of their Super Bowl championships. He had an excellent draft this year, also going heavy on linemen, and new coach Todd Haley was the offensive co-ordinator for the Arizona Cardinals for the past two seasons.
While Kansas City gives the rest of the league an object lesson in how to rebuild, the Oakland Raiders (5.5 regular season wins, 14-1 odds to win the division) are stuck in neutral. Owner Al Davis is addicted to speed – velocity, that is – and the Raiders passed over WR Michael Crabtree at the draft to take WR Darius Heyward-Bey seventh overall out of Maryland. Heyward-Bey is faster than Crabtree, but otherwise more of a project who will be starting right away only because Oakland’s cupboard is bare at wideout.
There’s always room for hope in the Black Hole. QB JaMarcus Russell (13 TDs, eight INTs) and RB Darren McFadden (499 yards on 4.4 yards per carry) have been learning on the fly just like Heyward-Bey will, and they get to develop behind a good offensive line. PK Sebastian Janikowski (3-of-7 from 50 yards or longer) has the length to salvage his fair share of stalled drives. But can Oakland get within his range, let alone in the end zone?
Predicted order of finish: 1. San Diego Chargers 2. Kansas City Chiefs 3. Denver Broncos 4. Oakland Raiders
