NFL Prop Bets: Passing, Rushing and Receiving
NFL Prop Bets: Passing, Rushing and Receiving
Minnesota's Adrian Peterson is going to be at the top of a lot of fantasy draft lists entering the 2009 season. But should he be at the top of your list for a prop bet to lead the NFL in rushing? The futures are out for the skill positions in the National Football League, and picking the leading rusher, receiver and quarterback requires a little forethought and understanding of the offensive schemes the players will be working in.
They call them “skill positions.” But let’s look reality straight in the eye: Quarterback, running back and wide receiver are the three positions most people care about when they watch football. Everybody else is a pawn in their eyes.
You and I know differently, which is part of the reason why we’re going to clean up betting on NFL props this year. Football is by definition the most team-oriented sport we deal with, by virtue of the NFL’s 43-man roster. A team is only as good as the system the coach puts in place; that system, in turn, is only as good as its players.
The 2007 New England Patriots went 16-0 (10-6 ATS) in the regular season with Tom Brady at QB. They missed the playoffs at 11-5 (9-7 ATS) with Matt Cassel in 2008. That’s still a great record, and it’s possible Cassel is a very good quarterback in his own right – or that he’s just another generic QB who thrived under coach Bill Belichick.
We’ll find that out this year when Cassel plays for the Kansas City Chiefs. They have a new GM in Scott Pioli, who was New England’s vice president of player personnel from 2002 to 2008. That should ease the transition somewhat for Cassel. Kansas City also has a new head coach in Todd Haley, who was the offensive coordinator for the Arizona Cardinals from 2007 to 2008. Haley has the expertise to get the Chiefs moving the ball faster than the 5.4 net yards per attempt they gained last year, but Haley doesn’t have the same level of talent on his roster that Belichick does in New England, particularly on the offensive line. Thinking about all the injuries suffered by Trent Green, Damon Huard, and Brodie Croyle makes me feel pessimistic about Cassel’s chances for success.
That’s one example of the holistic thinking required to handicap these individual NFL player props. Even after his knee surgeries, I would personally take Tom Brady at +500 to have the most passing yards in the league this season before I would take Cassel at +1500. But there are other more established choices out there, like New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees, the 2008 passing leader with 5,069 yards (over 500 more than second-place Jay Cutler) and the favorite for 2009 at +175. The Saints’ offensive line was much better last year with just 13 sacks, and the physical breakdown suffered by RB Deuce McAllister forced Brees to concentrate even more on the vertical attack.
Having reliable targets both downfield and in the flat allowed Brees to rack up his incredible numbers without any one receiver topping 1,000 yards. Last year’s leader on that front was Houston Texans wideout Andre Johnson with 1,575 yards, outdistancing Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald (1,431 yards). Yet it’s Fitzgerald priced as this year’s favorite on the futures market at +350. The question is whether he’ll still be splitting catches with WR Anquan Boldin, who was the subject of trade rumors at the time of the draft.
Fitzgerald, Boldin and Steve Breaston each finished with over 1,000 yards receiving last year. Johnson (+500), meanwhile, was by far the No. 1 target for the Texans. Their offense should look much the same in 2009; we can’t assume likewise with the Cardinals – they don’t even have a replacement announced yet for Haley.
It’s also difficult to pull the trigger on Adrian Peterson (+350) in the rushing category. We’re being led to believe that Brett Favre is going to be the quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings this year. That could be a good thing for Peterson’s numbers. New York Jets RB Thomas Jones ran for 1,119 yards (3.6 yards per carry) in 2007 with Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens handing him the ball; in 2008 with Favre under center, Jones rushed for 1,312 yards (4.5 yards per carry). However, Jones carried the ball 290 times; Peterson led the league with 1,760 yards, but on 363 carries (for an average of 4.8 yards).
If you’re looking for something more stable from the betting odds, Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner is tied at +650 with Frank Gore of the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners’ QB situation is muddled at best; Turner (1,699 yards, 4.5 per carry), on the other hand, knows he’ll once again be working with Matt Ryan, a very reliable rookie last year with an 87.7 passer rating. Turner had 376 carries last year to eclipse Peterson as the league’s workhorse. He may lose a few of those plays to new tight end Tony Gonzalez, but that’s a smaller risk compared to what may happen in Minnesota. I prefer Turner the Burner in this situation.
Minnesota's Adrian Peterson is going to be at the top of a lot of fantasy draft lists entering the 2009 season. But should he be at the top of your list for a prop bet to lead the NFL in rushing? The futures are out for the skill positions in the National Football League, and picking the leading rusher, receiver and quarterback requires a little forethought and understanding of the offensive schemes the players will be working in.
They call them “skill positions.” But let’s look reality straight in the eye: Quarterback, running back and wide receiver are the three positions most people care about when they watch football. Everybody else is a pawn in their eyes.
You and I know differently, which is part of the reason why we’re going to clean up betting on NFL props this year. Football is by definition the most team-oriented sport we deal with, by virtue of the NFL’s 43-man roster. A team is only as good as the system the coach puts in place; that system, in turn, is only as good as its players.
The 2007 New England Patriots went 16-0 (10-6 ATS) in the regular season with Tom Brady at QB. They missed the playoffs at 11-5 (9-7 ATS) with Matt Cassel in 2008. That’s still a great record, and it’s possible Cassel is a very good quarterback in his own right – or that he’s just another generic QB who thrived under coach Bill Belichick.
We’ll find that out this year when Cassel plays for the Kansas City Chiefs. They have a new GM in Scott Pioli, who was New England’s vice president of player personnel from 2002 to 2008. That should ease the transition somewhat for Cassel. Kansas City also has a new head coach in Todd Haley, who was the offensive coordinator for the Arizona Cardinals from 2007 to 2008. Haley has the expertise to get the Chiefs moving the ball faster than the 5.4 net yards per attempt they gained last year, but Haley doesn’t have the same level of talent on his roster that Belichick does in New England, particularly on the offensive line. Thinking about all the injuries suffered by Trent Green, Damon Huard, and Brodie Croyle makes me feel pessimistic about Cassel’s chances for success.
That’s one example of the holistic thinking required to handicap these individual NFL player props. Even after his knee surgeries, I would personally take Tom Brady at +500 to have the most passing yards in the league this season before I would take Cassel at +1500. But there are other more established choices out there, like New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees, the 2008 passing leader with 5,069 yards (over 500 more than second-place Jay Cutler) and the favorite for 2009 at +175. The Saints’ offensive line was much better last year with just 13 sacks, and the physical breakdown suffered by RB Deuce McAllister forced Brees to concentrate even more on the vertical attack.
Having reliable targets both downfield and in the flat allowed Brees to rack up his incredible numbers without any one receiver topping 1,000 yards. Last year’s leader on that front was Houston Texans wideout Andre Johnson with 1,575 yards, outdistancing Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald (1,431 yards). Yet it’s Fitzgerald priced as this year’s favorite on the futures market at +350. The question is whether he’ll still be splitting catches with WR Anquan Boldin, who was the subject of trade rumors at the time of the draft.
Fitzgerald, Boldin and Steve Breaston each finished with over 1,000 yards receiving last year. Johnson (+500), meanwhile, was by far the No. 1 target for the Texans. Their offense should look much the same in 2009; we can’t assume likewise with the Cardinals – they don’t even have a replacement announced yet for Haley.
It’s also difficult to pull the trigger on Adrian Peterson (+350) in the rushing category. We’re being led to believe that Brett Favre is going to be the quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings this year. That could be a good thing for Peterson’s numbers. New York Jets RB Thomas Jones ran for 1,119 yards (3.6 yards per carry) in 2007 with Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens handing him the ball; in 2008 with Favre under center, Jones rushed for 1,312 yards (4.5 yards per carry). However, Jones carried the ball 290 times; Peterson led the league with 1,760 yards, but on 363 carries (for an average of 4.8 yards).
If you’re looking for something more stable from the betting odds, Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner is tied at +650 with Frank Gore of the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners’ QB situation is muddled at best; Turner (1,699 yards, 4.5 per carry), on the other hand, knows he’ll once again be working with Matt Ryan, a very reliable rookie last year with an 87.7 passer rating. Turner had 376 carries last year to eclipse Peterson as the league’s workhorse. He may lose a few of those plays to new tight end Tony Gonzalez, but that’s a smaller risk compared to what may happen in Minnesota. I prefer Turner the Burner in this situation.