CFL Week 3
A good start to the season last week for me, only missing on Calgary -5.5. That one certainly surprised me, as Calgary just hasn't looked like themselves yet. Either way, I'm excited about new lines and another set of games. Units will be bumped up to 1 unit/play at this point. I've found weeks 4-7 are usually my strongest, but with 2 full game tapes per team and a couple boxscores, we have atleast a portion of the information needed to start properly evaluating these teams.
Last weeK: 3-1, +1.425 units
Last year's record: 51-37-1, +18.02 units
BRITISH COLUMBIA AT EDMONTON
BC continued their lackluster start last week by losing at home to the lowly TiCats. They were down much of the game and couldn't pull together the comeback at the end, much the same as week 1. For most of the game, it seemed as if Hamilton could do whatever they wanted offensively, as both the passing and rushing games killed the Lions with consistent gains. Any time you allow the opposing QB to complete 19 of 24 you're going to be in trouble, regardless if a lot of them are checkdowns or not.
To make matters worse, they lost kicker Paul McCallum for possibly the entire season. With his replacement never having played a CFL game before, a decline in the kicking game is almost inevitable, something which makes a big difference in Canadian football.
However, it wasn't all bad for BC. Their offense showed a slight improvement, particularly in their ability to protect Pierce, as they allowed only one sack. The passing game averaged 7.9 yards/play, a pretty respectable number. Unfortunately, this was met with a drop in the productivity of the running game. If they want to put up a lot of points, obviously they need both working well at the same time.
Edmonton is coming off a morale-killing 50-16 loss to the Als. Going in to Montreal is never easy, but they Eskimos hardly made the best of it. They showed some solid signs of life at times in the first half, but down the stretch they lost control and got blown out. Much of the problem was rookie running back Arkee Whitlock. He dropped two easy touchdown passes and had fumble problems. He just looked really unsure of himself. Edmonton needs to get a strong performance from their main back this week. Personally, I'm hoping they give McCarty the majority of the snaps, but they have another young back waiting in the wings, and there's still a chance theyll go back to Whitlock.
No significant injuries for Edmonton last week.
Both of these teams are coming into this one beaten down, and both will want to get the taste of week 2 out of their mouths. But Edmonton has performed better thus far, and I believe they have more talent. All of Edmonton's problems come down to the running game being ineffective, and that they've played sloppy football. The sloppy part is highly correctable... I doubt you'll see them lose the turnover battle by 3 for the 3rd week in a row. I was down on BC coming into the year and theyve done nothing to change my opinion... they have played like a bad team.
Pick: Edmonton -4.5 -102 * 1 unit
TORONTO AT CALGARY
Calgary is now 0-2, something which almost no one wouldve predicted before the season. Has they been unlucky, or are they really playing like an 0-2 football team?
Well, it's hard to say definitively either way, but they certainly haven't looked good. Burris and the passing game look off, and the running game hasn't provided a boost either. They're just not gaining yards the way they did last season. Plus, Burris has been turnover prone. And it's not like Montreal and Winnipeg have the two toughest defenses in the league or anything. On the other side of the ball, they haven't shown to be the "big play" type defense that they're often given credit as being. Although their per play averages look decent, they haven't been able to keep opponents out of the endzone when put in tough spots by the offense. Overall, this team just into meshing to get it done right now.
Toronto fell short to the Riders last week, as the last 5 minutes of the first half were simply atrocious. Big penalties and big turnovers caused them to go from a 13-10 lead in the 2nd quarter to a 37-13 halftime deficit... something you don't see very often. A stretch of play like that will bury any team every time. However, Im going to chalk that stretch up as a fluke... they weren't necessarily things we saw against Hamilton in the first week.
The Argo offense has been terrific so far, as they almost climbed out of that huge hole in the 2nd half by tearing up the Riders D. Their rushing attack has been the best in the league and Joseph looks much more in form than he did for the majority of last season. Defensively, they've certainly held their ground despite a decent amount of points put up against them.
Im not going to go as far as to say Toronto is the better team here, but we may end up thinking so 5 weeks from now. The talent may be tilted more in Toronto's favour than it appears. Calgary may bust out this week and put up a big number, but until I see proof that Burris is playing well and the Stamps are clicking, I cant give that many points. I wish I had grabbed this earlier, but Toronto is still the play at the moment.
Pick: Toronto +7.5 -110 * 1 unit
Saturday games to follow...
Last weeK: 3-1, +1.425 units
Last year's record: 51-37-1, +18.02 units
BRITISH COLUMBIA AT EDMONTON
BC continued their lackluster start last week by losing at home to the lowly TiCats. They were down much of the game and couldn't pull together the comeback at the end, much the same as week 1. For most of the game, it seemed as if Hamilton could do whatever they wanted offensively, as both the passing and rushing games killed the Lions with consistent gains. Any time you allow the opposing QB to complete 19 of 24 you're going to be in trouble, regardless if a lot of them are checkdowns or not.
To make matters worse, they lost kicker Paul McCallum for possibly the entire season. With his replacement never having played a CFL game before, a decline in the kicking game is almost inevitable, something which makes a big difference in Canadian football.
However, it wasn't all bad for BC. Their offense showed a slight improvement, particularly in their ability to protect Pierce, as they allowed only one sack. The passing game averaged 7.9 yards/play, a pretty respectable number. Unfortunately, this was met with a drop in the productivity of the running game. If they want to put up a lot of points, obviously they need both working well at the same time.
Edmonton is coming off a morale-killing 50-16 loss to the Als. Going in to Montreal is never easy, but they Eskimos hardly made the best of it. They showed some solid signs of life at times in the first half, but down the stretch they lost control and got blown out. Much of the problem was rookie running back Arkee Whitlock. He dropped two easy touchdown passes and had fumble problems. He just looked really unsure of himself. Edmonton needs to get a strong performance from their main back this week. Personally, I'm hoping they give McCarty the majority of the snaps, but they have another young back waiting in the wings, and there's still a chance theyll go back to Whitlock.
No significant injuries for Edmonton last week.
Both of these teams are coming into this one beaten down, and both will want to get the taste of week 2 out of their mouths. But Edmonton has performed better thus far, and I believe they have more talent. All of Edmonton's problems come down to the running game being ineffective, and that they've played sloppy football. The sloppy part is highly correctable... I doubt you'll see them lose the turnover battle by 3 for the 3rd week in a row. I was down on BC coming into the year and theyve done nothing to change my opinion... they have played like a bad team.
Pick: Edmonton -4.5 -102 * 1 unit
TORONTO AT CALGARY
Calgary is now 0-2, something which almost no one wouldve predicted before the season. Has they been unlucky, or are they really playing like an 0-2 football team?
Well, it's hard to say definitively either way, but they certainly haven't looked good. Burris and the passing game look off, and the running game hasn't provided a boost either. They're just not gaining yards the way they did last season. Plus, Burris has been turnover prone. And it's not like Montreal and Winnipeg have the two toughest defenses in the league or anything. On the other side of the ball, they haven't shown to be the "big play" type defense that they're often given credit as being. Although their per play averages look decent, they haven't been able to keep opponents out of the endzone when put in tough spots by the offense. Overall, this team just into meshing to get it done right now.
Toronto fell short to the Riders last week, as the last 5 minutes of the first half were simply atrocious. Big penalties and big turnovers caused them to go from a 13-10 lead in the 2nd quarter to a 37-13 halftime deficit... something you don't see very often. A stretch of play like that will bury any team every time. However, Im going to chalk that stretch up as a fluke... they weren't necessarily things we saw against Hamilton in the first week.
The Argo offense has been terrific so far, as they almost climbed out of that huge hole in the 2nd half by tearing up the Riders D. Their rushing attack has been the best in the league and Joseph looks much more in form than he did for the majority of last season. Defensively, they've certainly held their ground despite a decent amount of points put up against them.
Im not going to go as far as to say Toronto is the better team here, but we may end up thinking so 5 weeks from now. The talent may be tilted more in Toronto's favour than it appears. Calgary may bust out this week and put up a big number, but until I see proof that Burris is playing well and the Stamps are clicking, I cant give that many points. I wish I had grabbed this earlier, but Toronto is still the play at the moment.
Pick: Toronto +7.5 -110 * 1 unit
Saturday games to follow...
...but I like Montreal and Toronto aswell
