NFL Week 17 early betting look: What do all these line moves mean?
NFL Week 17 early betting look: What do all these line moves mean?
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My volume of bets in Week 17 of the NFL season isn't typically high. There are quite a few extra variables to consider in a good portion of the games, and it's ultimately too difficult to try to assess these variables with much confidence. The majority of my betting process in Week 17 involves eliminating the games with multiple unknowns and handicapping the rest of the slate as I normally would.
Let's dive into what we learned from the results in Week 16 and how playoff positioning has influenced a plethora of early-week moves already for Week 17.
Week 17 early line moves
Here are my quick thoughts on all of the line moves we saw Sunday and Monday, and the variables to consider in each:
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Move: Giants -3 to -6.5
With a win over Tampa Bay, Dallas has locked up the NFC East title and No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs. The current development is that the Cowboys don't plan to rest their starters, but they haven't committed to playing them for a set amount of time either. My line for this game would be Dallas -1.3 any other week, but the move from New York -3 to -6.5 in the market makes it clear that nobody expects the Cowboys' starters to get much playing time.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Move: Chiefs -14 to -13.5
Kansas City still has the AFC West title and 1-seed in the AFC playoffs to play for. The move off of +14 isn't for any reason other than the market -- at least to this point -- thinking 14 is too many points. My projection for this game is Chiefs -12.0, so I agree with the move.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Move: Eagles -7 to -6.5
I backed Nick Foles against the Texans last week, and he was able to get the job done. He is a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, after all. For whatever reason, Philadelphia seems to play better with him under center. The Eagles are making a late-season run at a wild-card spot, and I don't anticipate the Bears would be thrilled to face the champs in the first round (it is safe to assume the Eagles win this game in Washington more often than not). That brings to question what Chicago plans to do in Week 17.
The Bears face a Vikings team that currently holds that final NFC wild-card spot. If Chicago would in fact rather play Minnesota over Philadelphia, it should lose Sunday afternoon intentionally. If the Bears beat the Vikings and the Eagles take care of business, however, then the Eagles would be in Chicago in the first round of the NFC playoffs. Minnesota should be only a 1.5-point favorite at home, according to my projections, so the fact that the Vikings opened at -4 and were immediately bet up to -5 is intriguing.
Chicago still has an outside shot at a first-round bye if the Rams were to lose to San Francisco. Both of these games are being played at the same time to eliminate any severe tinkering with lineups. Despite their elite defense, I have gone on record saying I do not think the Bears are a legitimate contender this year (and I have bet against them multiple times this season, with varying success). That being said, a +5 with Chicago is too high if the Bears play to win.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Move: Texans -9 to -7
Houston is still playing for the AFC South crown and potentially a first-round playoff bye (this requires the Patriots to lose at home to the Jets). So the move against the Texans isn't personnel or playoff related. My personal number for this game is only Texans -5.6, and, similar to last week when I backed the Jaguars getting four points in Miami, the market is undervaluing the team. If you were able to grab Jacksonville above the key number of seven it was a great snag, but I otherwise would be passing at +7 or lower. If you like the Houston side, you don't have anything to worry about as far as motivation is concerned. This spread was just too high at open this week.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Move: Falcons -2 to Bucs -1
There aren't any playoff implications in this particular matchup, and with the Falcons expected to play their starters again in Week 17, the early move on Tampa Bay seems to be legitimate. However, I disagree with it. I make the Falcons closer to a two-point favorite where this game opened, and if this were to reach +1.5 (it has at a few shops already), then Atlanta is a side I will look to tease up to +7.5 as a leg in a two-team, six-point teaser.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Move: Bills -3 to -3.5
Miami coach Adam Gase said he wants to play to win and that Ryan Tannehillwill be making the start under center in Week 17. That's why the move on Buffalo from -3 to -3.5 is head-scratching to me. The narrative this week will be the below-freezing weather and Miami guys having to travel to Buffalo to play what is virtually a meaningless game. I understand that, but even with a generous home-field advantage for the Bills, my projection for this game is only Buffalo -0.1. I bet against the Dolphins in Week 16, too. I disagree with this move, and I think getting the hook now on a field goal with the Miami side is an edge worth betting.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Move: Chargers -4 to -6.5
Denver's shot at the playoffs is over after its Monday night loss in Oakland. With the Chargers still fighting for a division crown and the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, I can see why the "must-win" and "bounce back off a bad loss" narratives are already running rampant. There are also rumors that the Denver players have quit on head coach Vance Joseph, and that Joseph is likely getting fired this offseason. From a sheer modeling perspective, my raw number for this matchup is Los Angeles -3.8. The opening number was fair, and while I understand it may be tough to ignore all of these other variables, I will be doing just that if the line reaches +7.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Move: Rams -10.5 to -9.5
The Rams' first-round bye is at stake in Week 17 with the Bears only one game back and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. The 49ers have been giving it their all every week despite incentives to tank for a better draft position. It's safe to assume we get maximum effort and motivation from both squads. That being the case, I'm somewhat surprised by the move down through a key number like 10.
My projection is Rams -12.5, and at -9.5 I would recommend a bet on Los Angeles. If at halftime the Bears are trailing the Vikings by 28 points, then the Rams will likely start slowly pulling starters during the second half with a win becoming mostly pointless thanks to a Bears loss. This is worth following come Sunday afternoon with the opportunity to in-game bet or bet second halves, but otherwise there isn't any reason to stay off of the Rams at -9.5 or better (whether Todd Gurley plays or not).
Slate Standout: Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
This is the game of the week with a likely wild-card position at stake, but there isn't a line available yet because it hinges on Marcus Mariota's availability. Tennessee last reported that Mariota is dealing with a stinger and not an aggravation of the ulnar nerve issue he faced earlier in the season. With the season on the line, I imagine Mariota will give it a go, but it isn't clear how effective he can be. Assuming Mariota plays, my projection for this game is Titans -1.6. I'll update this section when we have a better sense of his status.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
My volume of bets in Week 17 of the NFL season isn't typically high. There are quite a few extra variables to consider in a good portion of the games, and it's ultimately too difficult to try to assess these variables with much confidence. The majority of my betting process in Week 17 involves eliminating the games with multiple unknowns and handicapping the rest of the slate as I normally would.
Let's dive into what we learned from the results in Week 16 and how playoff positioning has influenced a plethora of early-week moves already for Week 17.
Week 17 early line moves
Here are my quick thoughts on all of the line moves we saw Sunday and Monday, and the variables to consider in each:
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Move: Giants -3 to -6.5
With a win over Tampa Bay, Dallas has locked up the NFC East title and No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs. The current development is that the Cowboys don't plan to rest their starters, but they haven't committed to playing them for a set amount of time either. My line for this game would be Dallas -1.3 any other week, but the move from New York -3 to -6.5 in the market makes it clear that nobody expects the Cowboys' starters to get much playing time.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Move: Chiefs -14 to -13.5
Kansas City still has the AFC West title and 1-seed in the AFC playoffs to play for. The move off of +14 isn't for any reason other than the market -- at least to this point -- thinking 14 is too many points. My projection for this game is Chiefs -12.0, so I agree with the move.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Move: Eagles -7 to -6.5
I backed Nick Foles against the Texans last week, and he was able to get the job done. He is a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, after all. For whatever reason, Philadelphia seems to play better with him under center. The Eagles are making a late-season run at a wild-card spot, and I don't anticipate the Bears would be thrilled to face the champs in the first round (it is safe to assume the Eagles win this game in Washington more often than not). That brings to question what Chicago plans to do in Week 17.
The Bears face a Vikings team that currently holds that final NFC wild-card spot. If Chicago would in fact rather play Minnesota over Philadelphia, it should lose Sunday afternoon intentionally. If the Bears beat the Vikings and the Eagles take care of business, however, then the Eagles would be in Chicago in the first round of the NFC playoffs. Minnesota should be only a 1.5-point favorite at home, according to my projections, so the fact that the Vikings opened at -4 and were immediately bet up to -5 is intriguing.
Chicago still has an outside shot at a first-round bye if the Rams were to lose to San Francisco. Both of these games are being played at the same time to eliminate any severe tinkering with lineups. Despite their elite defense, I have gone on record saying I do not think the Bears are a legitimate contender this year (and I have bet against them multiple times this season, with varying success). That being said, a +5 with Chicago is too high if the Bears play to win.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Move: Texans -9 to -7
Houston is still playing for the AFC South crown and potentially a first-round playoff bye (this requires the Patriots to lose at home to the Jets). So the move against the Texans isn't personnel or playoff related. My personal number for this game is only Texans -5.6, and, similar to last week when I backed the Jaguars getting four points in Miami, the market is undervaluing the team. If you were able to grab Jacksonville above the key number of seven it was a great snag, but I otherwise would be passing at +7 or lower. If you like the Houston side, you don't have anything to worry about as far as motivation is concerned. This spread was just too high at open this week.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Move: Falcons -2 to Bucs -1
There aren't any playoff implications in this particular matchup, and with the Falcons expected to play their starters again in Week 17, the early move on Tampa Bay seems to be legitimate. However, I disagree with it. I make the Falcons closer to a two-point favorite where this game opened, and if this were to reach +1.5 (it has at a few shops already), then Atlanta is a side I will look to tease up to +7.5 as a leg in a two-team, six-point teaser.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Move: Bills -3 to -3.5
Miami coach Adam Gase said he wants to play to win and that Ryan Tannehillwill be making the start under center in Week 17. That's why the move on Buffalo from -3 to -3.5 is head-scratching to me. The narrative this week will be the below-freezing weather and Miami guys having to travel to Buffalo to play what is virtually a meaningless game. I understand that, but even with a generous home-field advantage for the Bills, my projection for this game is only Buffalo -0.1. I bet against the Dolphins in Week 16, too. I disagree with this move, and I think getting the hook now on a field goal with the Miami side is an edge worth betting.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Move: Chargers -4 to -6.5
Denver's shot at the playoffs is over after its Monday night loss in Oakland. With the Chargers still fighting for a division crown and the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, I can see why the "must-win" and "bounce back off a bad loss" narratives are already running rampant. There are also rumors that the Denver players have quit on head coach Vance Joseph, and that Joseph is likely getting fired this offseason. From a sheer modeling perspective, my raw number for this matchup is Los Angeles -3.8. The opening number was fair, and while I understand it may be tough to ignore all of these other variables, I will be doing just that if the line reaches +7.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Move: Rams -10.5 to -9.5
The Rams' first-round bye is at stake in Week 17 with the Bears only one game back and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. The 49ers have been giving it their all every week despite incentives to tank for a better draft position. It's safe to assume we get maximum effort and motivation from both squads. That being the case, I'm somewhat surprised by the move down through a key number like 10.
My projection is Rams -12.5, and at -9.5 I would recommend a bet on Los Angeles. If at halftime the Bears are trailing the Vikings by 28 points, then the Rams will likely start slowly pulling starters during the second half with a win becoming mostly pointless thanks to a Bears loss. This is worth following come Sunday afternoon with the opportunity to in-game bet or bet second halves, but otherwise there isn't any reason to stay off of the Rams at -9.5 or better (whether Todd Gurley plays or not).
Slate Standout: Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
This is the game of the week with a likely wild-card position at stake, but there isn't a line available yet because it hinges on Marcus Mariota's availability. Tennessee last reported that Mariota is dealing with a stinger and not an aggravation of the ulnar nerve issue he faced earlier in the season. With the season on the line, I imagine Mariota will give it a go, but it isn't clear how effective he can be. Assuming Mariota plays, my projection for this game is Titans -1.6. I'll update this section when we have a better sense of his status.