NFL Week 16 early betting look: The trap of the 'must-win' game
NFL Week 16 early betting look: The trap of the 'must-win' game
Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Week 15 had some weird splits between favorites and underdogs. The Sunday early slate saw favorites go 8-1, but between prime-time games and the late games on Sunday, favorites went 2-5 after the Saints escaped with a 12-9 win in Carolina.
In fact, the only underdog that won in that first bunch of games was the Washington Redskins, who pulled off a come-from-behind victory in Jacksonville with Josh Johnson at quarterback (after he hadn't taken any snaps over the past seven years). Johnson converted a third-and-18 prayer that ultimately led to a game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter, before a Cody Kessler interception set up the Redskins for the game winner. If you were the bettor standing at the window Sunday morning grabbing all the favorites, you almost hit your nine-team parlay.
Before we let go of Week 15, I wanted to compare and contrast the "must win" chatter that we heard all week -- and will hear even more of in Week 16 -- with the actual results of the five games in which the underdog upset a favorite.
The Kansas City Chiefs needed a win against the Los Angeles Chargers to secure the division crown and likely the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. They were up 14 points in Arrowhead with under five minutes to go and lost.
The Denver Broncos were on the cusp of making a late-season playoff run, facing off against the Browns in Denver in their "must win" game of the year. The Cleveland Browns won 17-16.
The Seattle Seahawks had an easy matchup against a depleted San Francisco 49ers squad that would all but sew up their wild-card spot in the NFC playoff race, and besides, the 49ers should be tanking anyway with a top-three draft pick hanging in the balance. Seattle lost 26-23.
The New England Patriots found themselves in a race for home field advantage and the two-seed in the AFC playoffs, coming off their gut-wrenching loss in improbable fashion at the buzzer in Miami. Tom Brady was, to that point, 20-0 against the spread as a -3 favorite or less following a straight-up loss. I tried to warn people from betting the Patriots at an inflated number solely due to a trend with no predictive power. The Pittsburgh Steelers won 17-10.
Carson Wentz went out with an injury and Nick Foles took over for a reeling Philadelphia Eagles team that had to face the Rams in Los Angeles. The Rams had just been embarrassed in Chicago the week prior, scoring just six total points in the process, so they would surely take care of a lowly Philadelphia squad getting 13.5 points before kickoff. The Rams still had a shot at locking down home field in the NFC if they won out as well. The Eagles won 30-23.
If you take anything from this, remember that these "must win" narratives are virtually meaningless late in the season. Stick to the numbers and information that structured your betting process week-to-week for the first four months of the season. There is no reason to change your process now.
Behind the Box Score: Understanding the Whole Story
Team A: 297 yards, 5.03 yards per play, 16 points
Team B: 294 yards, 3.92 yards per play, 30 points
I imagine there were not many people following the Bengals-Raiders on Sunday if they didn't have any coin on the game. Neither of these teams is going anywhere this season, and the Bengals have been playing with essentially their second unit for the past few weeks. Cincinnati won this game 30-16 regardless, but the Raiders were the better team both offensively and defensively. Sometimes, however, that isn't enough to get the win.
Neither of these teams was particularly efficient at moving the football: 5.03 yards per play for the Raiders would rank 29th in the NFL, and 3.92 for the Bengals would rank dead last. Net +1.11 YPP, however, would rank second in the league behind only the Chargers. Both teams turned the ball over, so what was the difference in this game that led to such a lopsided final score?
The most obvious edge came in special teams play, where Cincinnati returned a kickoff 77 yards and set up an easy touchdown. But there were two less obvious decisions made by the Bengals that I ultimately believe swung the game. Cincinnati faced two fourth downs in Raiders territory and didn't settle for kicking field goals (the Raiders kicked three). Now, it helps when it's fourth down with 1 or 2 yards to go, but in both instances, the Bengals wound up scoring touchdowns instead of settling for (potential) field goals.
These were analytically driven decisions that paid off -- and the Bengals deserve credit for that. The actual execution from the team as a whole (and particularly quarterback Jeff Driskel since taking over for Andy Dalton), however, has been subpar. Don't get caught up thinking the Bengals are back after this home victory over Oakland (as crazy as it is to see the Cleveland Browns laying seven points). I have seen a few sportsbooks even move to -6.5, which gives me the sense some early money has come in on Cincinnati here, but I would use caution.
Early line moves: Week 16
Move I agree with: The Texans opened as 1.5-point favorites in Philadelphia and have since flipped to being a short underdog. I already bet the Eagles and agree with this early move. I wrote about valuing the drop-off from Carson Wentz to Nick Foles last week, and it seemed the market was overvaluing that impact (the line closed Rams -13.5 most places and reached -14 at a few shops). Then we saw the actual game play out Sunday night, and the defending Super Bowl champs actually looked like their championship selves again.
I feel totally OK backing Foles at home in this spot, in a game that should be lined closer to a field goal (Eagles -2.7 is my projection). It's hard to realistically quantify motivation angles, and it really isn't predictive long-term, but it certainly can't hurt our position that Philadelphia is a half-game out of the NFC playoff wild-card position and needing a win in Week 16. Meanwhile, the Texans are playing a game out of conference with a two-game division lead over the Colts with two games to play (and Houston gets a Cody Kessler-led team at home to end the season).
Move I disagree with: In theory, I strongly disagree with the move on the Jets from 3.5-point home underdogs to the Packers this Sunday to PK or even a small favorite in the current market. My raw projection for this matchup would be Packers -3.7. However, there was speculation Monday that Aaron Rodgers may not be playing in Week 16, which would absolutely explain the line move. It makes sense, now that Green Bay has been eliminated from the playoff picture, to hold Rodgers out and avoid any significant injury. I'm keeping tabs on the news in this game, and if Rodgers does wind up making the start, then grabbing the Packers as an underdog or at PK is certainly worth some money.
Slate Standout: Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The narratives are flowing in this matchup. The Chiefs are coming off a loss to the Chargers at home in a game they led by 14 points with under five minutes to go. They are going to show up angry! They currently hold the tiebreaker in the AFC West with Los Angeles (both teams are 11-3), but a loss in Seattle likely costs them the division crown. Certainly, Kansas City will be extra motivated to win this one, right?
Well, the Seahawks dropped their Week 15 game in San Francisco and now have the Vikings, Eagles, Redskins and Panthers on their back vying for NFC wild-card positions. Surely, the Seahawks will be motivated in their "must win" game against the AFC's top team? It leads to interesting discussion throughout the week heading into the game, but this isn't the type of information that should be driving your eventual bets.
My projection for the game is Kansas City -1.6 (the current market is sitting -2.5). The Seahawks' advantage will come in their running game. They currently lead the NFL with 154.9 rushing yards per game and rank seventh with 4.7 yards per rush attempt. The Chiefs rank dead last in the league defending the run. These coaches get paid millions of dollars, and game-planning correctly should fall under the weekly to-do list.
I'm confident Pete Carroll and his staff will integrate this advantage into their attack Sunday night, and if that is the case, it likely points to a lower-scoring game (relative to the 54-point total) and one that may go down to the wire. Considering I think the current spread is already a point too high, I'll be looking to use the Seahawks as a leg in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110, taking it to +8.5.
Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Week 15 had some weird splits between favorites and underdogs. The Sunday early slate saw favorites go 8-1, but between prime-time games and the late games on Sunday, favorites went 2-5 after the Saints escaped with a 12-9 win in Carolina.
In fact, the only underdog that won in that first bunch of games was the Washington Redskins, who pulled off a come-from-behind victory in Jacksonville with Josh Johnson at quarterback (after he hadn't taken any snaps over the past seven years). Johnson converted a third-and-18 prayer that ultimately led to a game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter, before a Cody Kessler interception set up the Redskins for the game winner. If you were the bettor standing at the window Sunday morning grabbing all the favorites, you almost hit your nine-team parlay.
Before we let go of Week 15, I wanted to compare and contrast the "must win" chatter that we heard all week -- and will hear even more of in Week 16 -- with the actual results of the five games in which the underdog upset a favorite.
The Kansas City Chiefs needed a win against the Los Angeles Chargers to secure the division crown and likely the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. They were up 14 points in Arrowhead with under five minutes to go and lost.
The Denver Broncos were on the cusp of making a late-season playoff run, facing off against the Browns in Denver in their "must win" game of the year. The Cleveland Browns won 17-16.
The Seattle Seahawks had an easy matchup against a depleted San Francisco 49ers squad that would all but sew up their wild-card spot in the NFC playoff race, and besides, the 49ers should be tanking anyway with a top-three draft pick hanging in the balance. Seattle lost 26-23.
The New England Patriots found themselves in a race for home field advantage and the two-seed in the AFC playoffs, coming off their gut-wrenching loss in improbable fashion at the buzzer in Miami. Tom Brady was, to that point, 20-0 against the spread as a -3 favorite or less following a straight-up loss. I tried to warn people from betting the Patriots at an inflated number solely due to a trend with no predictive power. The Pittsburgh Steelers won 17-10.
Carson Wentz went out with an injury and Nick Foles took over for a reeling Philadelphia Eagles team that had to face the Rams in Los Angeles. The Rams had just been embarrassed in Chicago the week prior, scoring just six total points in the process, so they would surely take care of a lowly Philadelphia squad getting 13.5 points before kickoff. The Rams still had a shot at locking down home field in the NFC if they won out as well. The Eagles won 30-23.
If you take anything from this, remember that these "must win" narratives are virtually meaningless late in the season. Stick to the numbers and information that structured your betting process week-to-week for the first four months of the season. There is no reason to change your process now.
Behind the Box Score: Understanding the Whole Story
Team A: 297 yards, 5.03 yards per play, 16 points
Team B: 294 yards, 3.92 yards per play, 30 points
I imagine there were not many people following the Bengals-Raiders on Sunday if they didn't have any coin on the game. Neither of these teams is going anywhere this season, and the Bengals have been playing with essentially their second unit for the past few weeks. Cincinnati won this game 30-16 regardless, but the Raiders were the better team both offensively and defensively. Sometimes, however, that isn't enough to get the win.
Neither of these teams was particularly efficient at moving the football: 5.03 yards per play for the Raiders would rank 29th in the NFL, and 3.92 for the Bengals would rank dead last. Net +1.11 YPP, however, would rank second in the league behind only the Chargers. Both teams turned the ball over, so what was the difference in this game that led to such a lopsided final score?
The most obvious edge came in special teams play, where Cincinnati returned a kickoff 77 yards and set up an easy touchdown. But there were two less obvious decisions made by the Bengals that I ultimately believe swung the game. Cincinnati faced two fourth downs in Raiders territory and didn't settle for kicking field goals (the Raiders kicked three). Now, it helps when it's fourth down with 1 or 2 yards to go, but in both instances, the Bengals wound up scoring touchdowns instead of settling for (potential) field goals.
These were analytically driven decisions that paid off -- and the Bengals deserve credit for that. The actual execution from the team as a whole (and particularly quarterback Jeff Driskel since taking over for Andy Dalton), however, has been subpar. Don't get caught up thinking the Bengals are back after this home victory over Oakland (as crazy as it is to see the Cleveland Browns laying seven points). I have seen a few sportsbooks even move to -6.5, which gives me the sense some early money has come in on Cincinnati here, but I would use caution.
Early line moves: Week 16
Move I agree with: The Texans opened as 1.5-point favorites in Philadelphia and have since flipped to being a short underdog. I already bet the Eagles and agree with this early move. I wrote about valuing the drop-off from Carson Wentz to Nick Foles last week, and it seemed the market was overvaluing that impact (the line closed Rams -13.5 most places and reached -14 at a few shops). Then we saw the actual game play out Sunday night, and the defending Super Bowl champs actually looked like their championship selves again.
I feel totally OK backing Foles at home in this spot, in a game that should be lined closer to a field goal (Eagles -2.7 is my projection). It's hard to realistically quantify motivation angles, and it really isn't predictive long-term, but it certainly can't hurt our position that Philadelphia is a half-game out of the NFC playoff wild-card position and needing a win in Week 16. Meanwhile, the Texans are playing a game out of conference with a two-game division lead over the Colts with two games to play (and Houston gets a Cody Kessler-led team at home to end the season).
Move I disagree with: In theory, I strongly disagree with the move on the Jets from 3.5-point home underdogs to the Packers this Sunday to PK or even a small favorite in the current market. My raw projection for this matchup would be Packers -3.7. However, there was speculation Monday that Aaron Rodgers may not be playing in Week 16, which would absolutely explain the line move. It makes sense, now that Green Bay has been eliminated from the playoff picture, to hold Rodgers out and avoid any significant injury. I'm keeping tabs on the news in this game, and if Rodgers does wind up making the start, then grabbing the Packers as an underdog or at PK is certainly worth some money.
Slate Standout: Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The narratives are flowing in this matchup. The Chiefs are coming off a loss to the Chargers at home in a game they led by 14 points with under five minutes to go. They are going to show up angry! They currently hold the tiebreaker in the AFC West with Los Angeles (both teams are 11-3), but a loss in Seattle likely costs them the division crown. Certainly, Kansas City will be extra motivated to win this one, right?
Well, the Seahawks dropped their Week 15 game in San Francisco and now have the Vikings, Eagles, Redskins and Panthers on their back vying for NFC wild-card positions. Surely, the Seahawks will be motivated in their "must win" game against the AFC's top team? It leads to interesting discussion throughout the week heading into the game, but this isn't the type of information that should be driving your eventual bets.
My projection for the game is Kansas City -1.6 (the current market is sitting -2.5). The Seahawks' advantage will come in their running game. They currently lead the NFL with 154.9 rushing yards per game and rank seventh with 4.7 yards per rush attempt. The Chiefs rank dead last in the league defending the run. These coaches get paid millions of dollars, and game-planning correctly should fall under the weekly to-do list.
I'm confident Pete Carroll and his staff will integrate this advantage into their attack Sunday night, and if that is the case, it likely points to a lower-scoring game (relative to the 54-point total) and one that may go down to the wire. Considering I think the current spread is already a point too high, I'll be looking to use the Seahawks as a leg in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110, taking it to +8.5.