NFL Week 14 early betting look
NFL Week 14 early betting look: Will underdogs' success continue?
Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
"We feel primed of a big underdog weekend, but the parity in the NFL seems as diminished as ever this season. The last thing we want to do as bettors is find ourselves looking solely for one type of bet -- i.e. underdogs. But I have a feeling that is where the value in the numbers will lie this week after the favorites dominated -- again."
Last week I predicted that dogs would be barking, and sure enough, underdogs covered in 10 of 16 Week 13 games. The ugly ones were extra valuable as well. The Cowboys were facing a Saints team that had covered nine straight against the spread. Dallas won outright. Nobody feels comfortable backing the worst teams in the NFL, but the Cardinals covered in Green Bay (and also won outright, resulting in Mike McCarthy getting fired by the Packers).
The Giants beat a red-hot Bears squad, whatever was left of Jacksonville with Cody Kesslerstarting at quarterback shut the Colts out 6-0, the Jets with Josh McCownunder center almost upset the Titans outright, and even the infamous 2018 Raiders covered a monster number at home against the Kansas City Chiefs.
For those who followed my opinions in the Week 13 "best bets" piece, they went 8-1 during a week that everyone is reporting the sportsbooks crushed the public (my only loss being Steelers -3, a favorite that blew a lead and lost outright to an underdog... imagine that). So how does this affect the market in Week 14? This is why having projections to use to gauge where the number should be versus what the market is offering is so critical. Last week we could assume there would be some inherent value on underdogs in the NFL, but actually being able to pick those inflated spreads out is obviously the key.
Let's dive into some of the details that stuck out to me from Week 13 -- and we'll look at how we can apply them to our betting process moving forward. I've seen a few people already mention favorites will be back in Week 14. Let's compare numbers and find out.
Behind the box score: Understanding the whole story
One game stood out in Week 13 above all of the others. I think most will overlook the matchup since neither team is in the hunt for a playoff spot, ultimately rendering the rest of their seasons obsolete to non-bettors. Fortunately for bettors, we have opportunities to find inefficiencies in the market every single week, no matter the teams' playoff positioning or general public outlook. Let's dive behind this box score and see what we can take away from the game:
Team A: 415 yards, 6.3 yards per play, 5 third-down conversions
Team B: 175 yards, 3.5 yards per play, 2 third-down conversions
This Dolphins-Bills game on Sunday is as strange a contest as I have seen this season. Team B -- the Dolphins -- won the matchup 21-17. You know how hard it is to score 21 points without extra help from the defense (to an extent, more on this in a bit) or special teams with only 175 yards? Imagine only converting two third downs in an entire game but scoring three touchdowns! The Miami defense did help force three turnovers, which explains part of the discrepancy, but the offense was putrid for the entire 60 minutes.
Josh Allen even rushed for 135 yards on just nine carries for Buffalo. The offense was humming. The Bills defense forced a turnover themselves. Typically a minus-two turnover margin isn't enough to explain almost doubling your opponent in yards per play, outgunning them by 240 yards and still losing. We have seen a few minus-four or minus-five turnover games with lopsided box scores like this. That is always going to be difficult to overcome.
This one leaves me perplexed. Miami hosts New England this week and currently sits as an eight-point underdog. Maybe the Dolphins were looking ahead to this matchup after getting waxed by the Patriots earlier this season? I guess it's possible. I would still be careful backing Miami this week. The return of Ryan Tannehill at quarterback hasn't gone well, and I certainly won't be rushing to bet on him against one of the better teams in the AFC. If anything, I'm looking at using New England as an option in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110.
Buy/Sell
I have done it again. I apologize to Steelers fans everywhere. One of these days I won't inflict an instant loss to the team I write about in my buy section, even if they were driving to go up 23 at home in the third quarter. This one is on me.
To the delight of every other fan that reads this column, I do not have a team that stands out as a buy this week. I still believe the Chargers and Steelers were/are two of the most overlooked Super Bowl contenders in the league this season. After jinxing each into gut-wrenching losses the past few weeks (Chargers home loss to Denver in Week 11), I will spare everybody else.
Early line moves: Week 14
Move I agree with: The Ravens deserve a ton of credit for rolling off three straight wins with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. The wins over the Bengals, Raiders and Falcons certainly aren't anything to write home about, but they kept their playoff hopes alive while Joe Flacco was nursing an injured hip. Flacco is set to return in Week 14, although there have been discussions about letting Jackson keep the starting job.
I would think John Harbaugh trusts Flacco to go into Kansas City and get a win over Jackson's chances, but the rumor has been that he is feeling pressure from the front office to play the rookie. Regardless, the +7.5 line at open was too high. It has since moved to +7 or even +6.5 depending on the sportsbook. If Jackson gets the nod, I think the current +6.5 is a fair number. If Flacco starts, like I anticipate, then my projection is Ravens +3.9. At that point, if +7s are still hanging around it would be worth a wager. I'll be keeping an eye on it throughout the week, but tip of the cap to those that grabbed the early hook and +7.5 with Baltimore.
Move I disagree with: There is a narrative that exists that teams play better the week after firing their coach. It makes some sense: get rid of a guy that the players don't want around anymore, or at least aren't playing for anymore. With the news of the coach's departure, the team feels rejuvenated and refreshed. Or maybe it even puts the players on notice:
"If Mike McCarthy got fired, we could be next!"
We should get max effort from the Packers this week, right? In theory, we should expect max effort from professionals getting paid large amounts of money to do any job. Does firing McCarthy actually impact the expected result in their next game? Historically, I haven't seen any data that suggests they are more likely to cover in Week 14. The market, however, has moved from Packers -4 to -5.5 since the news. My projection for the game lines up exactly with the opener at -4. I can't put much stock into a narrative that we can't justifiably quantify.
Now, I'm not betting the Falcons at +5.5 since there isn't much of an edge to be had there when my true line is +4 anyway. But if this keeps climbing, +6.5 -- and especially a +7 -- will get my attention.
Slate standout: Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Bears almost lucked into another win in New York this past Sunday, despite trailing the Giants by 10 points with less than two minutes remaining. Chicago marched down quickly and took a field goal to cut the deficit to seven. Daniel Brown recovered the ensuing onside kick, and with 0:00 on the clock Tarik Cohen threw a touchdown pass to Anthony Miller on a trick play at the goal-line.
The Bears wound up losing in overtime, but the game wasn't as close as the final score indicated. As expected, the Giants took away the Chicago running game and forced backup quarterback Chase Daniel to throw the ball 39 times. A similar strategy worked for the Lions on Thanksgiving as Detroit limited the Bears to just 16 offensive points (Stafford spotted them seven more). In Week 13 for the Giants, Daniel wasn't as clean with the football, throwing two interceptions including one for a pick-six that gave the Giants a 7-0 lead to start the game.
The Bears are still taking caution with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky's shoulder injury. Despite the loss in New York, he is listed day-to-day once again for Week 14. With a healthy Trubisky under center, my projection for this game is Rams -2.4 with a total of 53.1. Daniel is a serious downgrade, and if he is announced the starter then the current market number at -3 is short. I will be following any news closely and trying to grab any Rams -3s if Daniel gets the nod, but we may not know for sure until Sunday morning.
This matchup has potential to be a preview of a future NFC playoff game and it is intriguing, at least in regards to the Sean McVay offense facing the second-best defense in the NFL (and the best the Rams have faced yet this season). In an age of the argument "defense doesn't even matter anymore to win in the NFL", this particular matchup will give us an idea of the Bears' chances at slowing down one of the best attacks in the game.
Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
"We feel primed of a big underdog weekend, but the parity in the NFL seems as diminished as ever this season. The last thing we want to do as bettors is find ourselves looking solely for one type of bet -- i.e. underdogs. But I have a feeling that is where the value in the numbers will lie this week after the favorites dominated -- again."
Last week I predicted that dogs would be barking, and sure enough, underdogs covered in 10 of 16 Week 13 games. The ugly ones were extra valuable as well. The Cowboys were facing a Saints team that had covered nine straight against the spread. Dallas won outright. Nobody feels comfortable backing the worst teams in the NFL, but the Cardinals covered in Green Bay (and also won outright, resulting in Mike McCarthy getting fired by the Packers).
The Giants beat a red-hot Bears squad, whatever was left of Jacksonville with Cody Kesslerstarting at quarterback shut the Colts out 6-0, the Jets with Josh McCownunder center almost upset the Titans outright, and even the infamous 2018 Raiders covered a monster number at home against the Kansas City Chiefs.
For those who followed my opinions in the Week 13 "best bets" piece, they went 8-1 during a week that everyone is reporting the sportsbooks crushed the public (my only loss being Steelers -3, a favorite that blew a lead and lost outright to an underdog... imagine that). So how does this affect the market in Week 14? This is why having projections to use to gauge where the number should be versus what the market is offering is so critical. Last week we could assume there would be some inherent value on underdogs in the NFL, but actually being able to pick those inflated spreads out is obviously the key.
Let's dive into some of the details that stuck out to me from Week 13 -- and we'll look at how we can apply them to our betting process moving forward. I've seen a few people already mention favorites will be back in Week 14. Let's compare numbers and find out.
Behind the box score: Understanding the whole story
One game stood out in Week 13 above all of the others. I think most will overlook the matchup since neither team is in the hunt for a playoff spot, ultimately rendering the rest of their seasons obsolete to non-bettors. Fortunately for bettors, we have opportunities to find inefficiencies in the market every single week, no matter the teams' playoff positioning or general public outlook. Let's dive behind this box score and see what we can take away from the game:
Team A: 415 yards, 6.3 yards per play, 5 third-down conversions
Team B: 175 yards, 3.5 yards per play, 2 third-down conversions
This Dolphins-Bills game on Sunday is as strange a contest as I have seen this season. Team B -- the Dolphins -- won the matchup 21-17. You know how hard it is to score 21 points without extra help from the defense (to an extent, more on this in a bit) or special teams with only 175 yards? Imagine only converting two third downs in an entire game but scoring three touchdowns! The Miami defense did help force three turnovers, which explains part of the discrepancy, but the offense was putrid for the entire 60 minutes.
Josh Allen even rushed for 135 yards on just nine carries for Buffalo. The offense was humming. The Bills defense forced a turnover themselves. Typically a minus-two turnover margin isn't enough to explain almost doubling your opponent in yards per play, outgunning them by 240 yards and still losing. We have seen a few minus-four or minus-five turnover games with lopsided box scores like this. That is always going to be difficult to overcome.
This one leaves me perplexed. Miami hosts New England this week and currently sits as an eight-point underdog. Maybe the Dolphins were looking ahead to this matchup after getting waxed by the Patriots earlier this season? I guess it's possible. I would still be careful backing Miami this week. The return of Ryan Tannehill at quarterback hasn't gone well, and I certainly won't be rushing to bet on him against one of the better teams in the AFC. If anything, I'm looking at using New England as an option in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110.
Buy/Sell
I have done it again. I apologize to Steelers fans everywhere. One of these days I won't inflict an instant loss to the team I write about in my buy section, even if they were driving to go up 23 at home in the third quarter. This one is on me.
To the delight of every other fan that reads this column, I do not have a team that stands out as a buy this week. I still believe the Chargers and Steelers were/are two of the most overlooked Super Bowl contenders in the league this season. After jinxing each into gut-wrenching losses the past few weeks (Chargers home loss to Denver in Week 11), I will spare everybody else.
Early line moves: Week 14
Move I agree with: The Ravens deserve a ton of credit for rolling off three straight wins with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. The wins over the Bengals, Raiders and Falcons certainly aren't anything to write home about, but they kept their playoff hopes alive while Joe Flacco was nursing an injured hip. Flacco is set to return in Week 14, although there have been discussions about letting Jackson keep the starting job.
I would think John Harbaugh trusts Flacco to go into Kansas City and get a win over Jackson's chances, but the rumor has been that he is feeling pressure from the front office to play the rookie. Regardless, the +7.5 line at open was too high. It has since moved to +7 or even +6.5 depending on the sportsbook. If Jackson gets the nod, I think the current +6.5 is a fair number. If Flacco starts, like I anticipate, then my projection is Ravens +3.9. At that point, if +7s are still hanging around it would be worth a wager. I'll be keeping an eye on it throughout the week, but tip of the cap to those that grabbed the early hook and +7.5 with Baltimore.
Move I disagree with: There is a narrative that exists that teams play better the week after firing their coach. It makes some sense: get rid of a guy that the players don't want around anymore, or at least aren't playing for anymore. With the news of the coach's departure, the team feels rejuvenated and refreshed. Or maybe it even puts the players on notice:
"If Mike McCarthy got fired, we could be next!"
We should get max effort from the Packers this week, right? In theory, we should expect max effort from professionals getting paid large amounts of money to do any job. Does firing McCarthy actually impact the expected result in their next game? Historically, I haven't seen any data that suggests they are more likely to cover in Week 14. The market, however, has moved from Packers -4 to -5.5 since the news. My projection for the game lines up exactly with the opener at -4. I can't put much stock into a narrative that we can't justifiably quantify.
Now, I'm not betting the Falcons at +5.5 since there isn't much of an edge to be had there when my true line is +4 anyway. But if this keeps climbing, +6.5 -- and especially a +7 -- will get my attention.
Slate standout: Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Bears almost lucked into another win in New York this past Sunday, despite trailing the Giants by 10 points with less than two minutes remaining. Chicago marched down quickly and took a field goal to cut the deficit to seven. Daniel Brown recovered the ensuing onside kick, and with 0:00 on the clock Tarik Cohen threw a touchdown pass to Anthony Miller on a trick play at the goal-line.
The Bears wound up losing in overtime, but the game wasn't as close as the final score indicated. As expected, the Giants took away the Chicago running game and forced backup quarterback Chase Daniel to throw the ball 39 times. A similar strategy worked for the Lions on Thanksgiving as Detroit limited the Bears to just 16 offensive points (Stafford spotted them seven more). In Week 13 for the Giants, Daniel wasn't as clean with the football, throwing two interceptions including one for a pick-six that gave the Giants a 7-0 lead to start the game.
The Bears are still taking caution with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky's shoulder injury. Despite the loss in New York, he is listed day-to-day once again for Week 14. With a healthy Trubisky under center, my projection for this game is Rams -2.4 with a total of 53.1. Daniel is a serious downgrade, and if he is announced the starter then the current market number at -3 is short. I will be following any news closely and trying to grab any Rams -3s if Daniel gets the nod, but we may not know for sure until Sunday morning.
This matchup has potential to be a preview of a future NFC playoff game and it is intriguing, at least in regards to the Sean McVay offense facing the second-best defense in the NFL (and the best the Rams have faced yet this season). In an age of the argument "defense doesn't even matter anymore to win in the NFL", this particular matchup will give us an idea of the Bears' chances at slowing down one of the best attacks in the game.