With Favre at helm, Vikings to rule NFC North
With Favre at helm, Vikings to rule NFC North
With the exception of the Lions, the NFC North appears to be as wide open as any division this season. Leading the way right now are the Minnesota Vikings behind Adrian Peterson and, according to rumors, Brett Favre in their backfield. Favre's old mates in Green Bay would love nothing more than to make sure that doesn't happen and will be cutting loose a new 3-4 defensive scheme behind new assistant coach Dom Capers.
The Detroit Lions are probably not going to win the NFC North. Other than that, anything can happen in the most old-school of football’s divisions.
All four teams in the NFC North have become household names – even the Minnesota Vikings, who were established in 1961 after abandoning plans to join the upstart American Football League. The Vikings have an NFL championship and four Super Bowl losses to their name. This year, they’re favored to win the division thanks to the expected arrival of a Super Bowl-winning quarterback. Here were the betting odds on the futures market for all four teams at press time, which have remained stable since the open.
The Vikings did win the division last year at 10-6 (6-10 ATS), but it was like pulling hen’s teeth. Minnesota fans are looking for salvation in the form of Brett Favre. He officially retired from the New York Jets after one season (22 TDs, 22 INTs, 81.0 QB rating) and is expected to un-retire for the second time in his career to join the Vikings. The NFL Network and the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported on Monday that Favre has put down $30,000 on a condo in the Minnesota area.
Even assuming Favre can still sling the football in his age 40 season, Minnesota was ranked No. 28 among the 32 teams in adjusted sack rate (8.8 percent of plays, on 43 total sacks). RB Adrian Peterson is a tremendous threat to bust downfield on any play, but he also gets stopped at the line far too often and still fumbles the ball on occasion – nine times in 2008, losing four. The Vikings finished the year ranked No. 15 in adjusted line yards at 4.21 per play.
It’s on defense that the Vikings truly shine at No. 4 overall in team efficiency according to Football Outsiders, balanced between stopping the run and the pass. But losing safety Darren Sharper to the Saints will make life tougher in Minnesota, and the offense will also suffer from the departure of center Matt Birk. The Vikings only had five picks in the entry draft; first-rounder Percy Harvin is a promising deep threat at wideout, but might have trouble producing on the same team as Bernard Berrian (20.1 yards per catch). Second-round pick Phil Loadholt could help the offensive line at nearly 6-foot-8 and 330 pounds, if he can put to rest the questions surrounding his character.
Favre’s former team could yet have its revenge. Nobody’s questioning whether the Packers made the right decision to go with QB Aaron Rodgers after his outstanding first year under center: 28 TD passes, 13 INTs and a sparkling 93.8 passer rating. Green Bay’s troubles last year (6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS) had more to do with a defensive line that was ranked No. 25 against the run. New defensive co-ordinator Dom Capers will make the switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4, using first-round pick B.J. Raji at nose tackle. The secondary is still a huge question mark – this team might need another year of seasoning.
The Chicago Bears (9-7 SU, 6-8-2 ATS) have gone through more upheaval than anyone in the division, dealing QB Kyle Orton (18 TDs, 12 INTs, 79.6 QB rating) to the Denver Broncos in a package that brings highly coveted Jay Cutler (25 TDs, 18 INTs, 86.0 QB rating) to the Windy City. That’s an upgrade, but the Bears’ offensive line also shed John St. Clair and John Tait, and Chicago waited until the seventh round before picking guard Lance Louis from San Diego State. Again, it could be a year or two before Cutler is surrounded by enough talent to contend for a division title.
That leaves the Lions, who were winless last year at 0-16 (7-9 ATS). They’ll have a new coach in Jim Schwartz and a new QB in first-overall pick Matthew Stafford from Georgia. Daunte Culpepper (four TDs, six INTs, 63.9 QB rating) may or may not start the season to protect Stafford from the beating he’d likely get playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Lions do have some quality receivers as well as hope for improvement on defense, so taking them ATS on a game-per-game basis could be profitable. A division title? Good luck with that.
My picks: 1. Minnesota Vikings 2. Green Bay Packers 3. Chicago Bears 4. Detroit Lions
With the exception of the Lions, the NFC North appears to be as wide open as any division this season. Leading the way right now are the Minnesota Vikings behind Adrian Peterson and, according to rumors, Brett Favre in their backfield. Favre's old mates in Green Bay would love nothing more than to make sure that doesn't happen and will be cutting loose a new 3-4 defensive scheme behind new assistant coach Dom Capers.
The Detroit Lions are probably not going to win the NFC North. Other than that, anything can happen in the most old-school of football’s divisions.
All four teams in the NFC North have become household names – even the Minnesota Vikings, who were established in 1961 after abandoning plans to join the upstart American Football League. The Vikings have an NFL championship and four Super Bowl losses to their name. This year, they’re favored to win the division thanks to the expected arrival of a Super Bowl-winning quarterback. Here were the betting odds on the futures market for all four teams at press time, which have remained stable since the open.
- Minnesota Vikings 3-2
- Chicago Bears 8-5
- Green Bay Packers 2-1
- Detroit Lions 12-1
The Vikings did win the division last year at 10-6 (6-10 ATS), but it was like pulling hen’s teeth. Minnesota fans are looking for salvation in the form of Brett Favre. He officially retired from the New York Jets after one season (22 TDs, 22 INTs, 81.0 QB rating) and is expected to un-retire for the second time in his career to join the Vikings. The NFL Network and the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported on Monday that Favre has put down $30,000 on a condo in the Minnesota area.
Even assuming Favre can still sling the football in his age 40 season, Minnesota was ranked No. 28 among the 32 teams in adjusted sack rate (8.8 percent of plays, on 43 total sacks). RB Adrian Peterson is a tremendous threat to bust downfield on any play, but he also gets stopped at the line far too often and still fumbles the ball on occasion – nine times in 2008, losing four. The Vikings finished the year ranked No. 15 in adjusted line yards at 4.21 per play.
It’s on defense that the Vikings truly shine at No. 4 overall in team efficiency according to Football Outsiders, balanced between stopping the run and the pass. But losing safety Darren Sharper to the Saints will make life tougher in Minnesota, and the offense will also suffer from the departure of center Matt Birk. The Vikings only had five picks in the entry draft; first-rounder Percy Harvin is a promising deep threat at wideout, but might have trouble producing on the same team as Bernard Berrian (20.1 yards per catch). Second-round pick Phil Loadholt could help the offensive line at nearly 6-foot-8 and 330 pounds, if he can put to rest the questions surrounding his character.
Favre’s former team could yet have its revenge. Nobody’s questioning whether the Packers made the right decision to go with QB Aaron Rodgers after his outstanding first year under center: 28 TD passes, 13 INTs and a sparkling 93.8 passer rating. Green Bay’s troubles last year (6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS) had more to do with a defensive line that was ranked No. 25 against the run. New defensive co-ordinator Dom Capers will make the switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4, using first-round pick B.J. Raji at nose tackle. The secondary is still a huge question mark – this team might need another year of seasoning.
The Chicago Bears (9-7 SU, 6-8-2 ATS) have gone through more upheaval than anyone in the division, dealing QB Kyle Orton (18 TDs, 12 INTs, 79.6 QB rating) to the Denver Broncos in a package that brings highly coveted Jay Cutler (25 TDs, 18 INTs, 86.0 QB rating) to the Windy City. That’s an upgrade, but the Bears’ offensive line also shed John St. Clair and John Tait, and Chicago waited until the seventh round before picking guard Lance Louis from San Diego State. Again, it could be a year or two before Cutler is surrounded by enough talent to contend for a division title.
That leaves the Lions, who were winless last year at 0-16 (7-9 ATS). They’ll have a new coach in Jim Schwartz and a new QB in first-overall pick Matthew Stafford from Georgia. Daunte Culpepper (four TDs, six INTs, 63.9 QB rating) may or may not start the season to protect Stafford from the beating he’d likely get playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Lions do have some quality receivers as well as hope for improvement on defense, so taking them ATS on a game-per-game basis could be profitable. A division title? Good luck with that.
My picks: 1. Minnesota Vikings 2. Green Bay Packers 3. Chicago Bears 4. Detroit Lions
