Ryermkd's NFL 2017-2018 Thread

[2daBank]

ill never understand fans and their delusional faith in a team so great they can convince themselves of anything. "Being conservative as a fan",, come on dude that is opposite of what you being, you being incredibly unrealistically optimistic.

[Ryermkd]

ill never understand fans and their delusional faith in a team so great they can convince themselves of anything. "Being conservative as a fan",, come on dude that is opposite of what you being, you being incredibly unrealistically optimistic.

We'll see man, don't forget all these years the Bills have had to play with the Patriots. I feel the AFC East is always an underestimated division in terms of overall toughness as of late. Years ago you could argue AFC North, more recently easily AFC West, and it still might be AFC West. But I'm telling you the AFC East is heavily underestimated, why do you think the Bills have a tougher schedule than most teams with similar 2016-2017 records? If the Bills are to go 9-7 or 10-6 as I predict this is one of the games they need to win. Taylor did lower his contract, but if he wants to lead these Bills in the future he will have to produce, and if he does, not only will he be worshiped by loony-toon Bills fans; he'll get a nice hefty raise just for making the playoffs.


I also lean Oakland -14 but that's two full touchdowns in the NFL. The Seattle scenario is a bit different being a divisional match-up and having just lost to their possible future match-up in the NFC Championship (Not discounting Atlanta/Carolina). Jets usually play the Raiders tough and I'm hoping to see a 27-14 or 31-17 final there just to prove my point about the NFC East. You'd think naturally that should be another blowout but it might just go exactly as Vegas has it outlined.

[2daBank]

Serious question how can you honestly be impressed w a defense because they had their way mostly w the worst group of offensive talent possibly ever assembled? Jets don't have one skill position player that would start for panthers or hardly any other team. Powell could be some teams 3rd down back and that it (not panthers tho)! And that game was close for a great deal of it!!

I chat w a bills fan I have a great deal of respect for who gives a honest evaluation and he tells me outside the dline which good there a bunch of holes at linebacker and in the secondary. You know how rough panthers will be for a team w question marks at linebacker? Mccaffery will chew them up catching passes out of the backfield. Cam gonna get better each week as he gets more work after only throwing 2 passes this preseason. Zone read will put ton of pressure on the backers. Olsen will be a nightmare for them off play action.

Then there the other side of the ball. Panthers gonna stuff the shit out of the box and bottle up bills run game cause Mathews ain't striking fear in anyone. Panthers linebackers one of best pairs in the business which doesn't bode well for clay and a big slot wr being very productive. Panthers weakness on defense is the secondary but bills have nothing to attack them w on the outside nor a qb good enough to do so.

There a reason this spread 7 and it isn't cause bills have the look of a team that gonna finish above .500!! It cause this game and these offenses make linebackers incredibly important, one side you have arguably the best pair in the league, other side you have whatever the bills got..

Not gonna argue taking the 7 a bad bet might not be, that a big number for a panthers team who's offense probably still weeks away from hitting its stride. But yiu making their chances of winning sound far more likely than actually the case. Panthers look like solid start to a 6 point teaser.

[jaxjonesdrew32]

Of course I didn't make a play this week, it's week 1. I don't play slot machines. Thanks for the 2 juicy fades next week

[jaxjonesdrew32]

I'll take Ryermkd takes Bills ML this week for -1000 Alex

[Ryermkd]

Other than Powell, I think Kearse and Forte are half decent... but that's about it.

Think the Bills fan is like most, overreacting to the loss of two good secondary players. Sure we need improvements at linebacker, no disagreements there. It'll be a fun game to watch that's for sure, I just don't see the Bills getting wiped out. Vegas opening with +100 to me looks like a reverse-psychology for people to bet the -7 while it's still there. I guess with that logic it was silly for me to bet them, but I'm confident. I can see the line finalizing at -7.5 or -8, but realistically I don't expect too much movement on this line as there will be Bills backers as well.

You could make the argument for teasing it either way, I think the game will be within a touchdown. Probably better games out there to tease though.

Aside from what I saw today from both teams all I can say is:

1. AFC East is underestimated.
2. This is a VERY important game for the Bills in the grand-scheme of things.
3. Sean McDermott factor.

[Ryermkd]

I'll take Ryermkd takes Bills ML this week for -1000 Alex

look who decided to show his face and spew the usual diarrhea.

[2daBank]

The afc east is not underrated it has 2 very bad teams at the bottom, it why pats have it so easy all the time.

Important how? Bills have no chance at playoffs.

McDermott factor. Lol

[Ryermkd]

Of course I didn't make a play this week, it's week 1. I don't play slot machines. Thanks for the 2 juicy fades next week

Maybe you should start a thread and post your plays

[Ryermkd]

The afc east is not underrated it has 2 very bad teams at the bottom, it why pats have it so easy all the time.

Important how? Bills have no chance at playoffs.

McDermott factor. Lol

Bank the first two are your opinion so no worries, but come on man.... He was the Panthers Defensive Coordinator from 2011-2016...

[2daBank]

Bank the first two are your opinion so no worries, but come on man.... He was the Panthers Defensive Coordinator from 2011-2016...

Ok sure but why you think more a advantage for bills than panthers? He knows panthers well and they know how he runs a defense!

Maybe he knows couple small tidbits about few players but he don't have the offensive personnel to pick on guys. And just don't see that as a bigger advantage than panthers being intimately aware of all his defensive tendencies..

Bills having no chance to make playoffs not a opinion. Actually oddsmakers say their chances are mathematically slim!!

[Ryermkd]

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/15447878/putting-leicester-city-5000-1-odds-perspective-other-long-shots-espn-chalk

Shit happens, no part of me believes the Bills can win the Superbowl, but making the playoffs isn't that far-fetched...

17 year drought, I know the "trend is your friend" logic, but it isn't always sound. I don't think any team goes out on the field with thoughts of their chances being slim to none.

[2daBank]

I don't ever use trends or streaks in my analysis as I think it pointless. Fact is they don't have the talent of a playoff team and only reason they not last in division is cause of jets. Miami head and shoulders more talented and have very good coach.

[2daBank]

Not sure what a huge underdog winning proves? That it possible? Sure anything possible just a fact it not very likely!

[Ryermkd]

What odds would you give me on a friendly bet: Bills to finish ahead of Dolphins?

If you're interested that is; I'm willing to toss a unit or two ($25-$50) Canadian too, so it's even cheaper for you.

[2daBank]

I just can't believe you telling me you looking at bills unbiasedly and saying they a legit playoff contender??

if that really true you should do yourself a favor and refrain from betting them and just root for them cause you incapable of looking at them honestly. If you put these players in another jersey I think your opinion of the talent level be much different.

They cost you pretty much every parlay last week willing to add them laying freaking 10! I mean I guess if it makes ya happy I'll drop it but wouldn't you be happier winning money and simply rooting for your squad? Obviously you care enough you prob don't need the action to enjoy their games!

I'm that way w stl baseball cardinals, I'm far more objective about them so I bet on and against but lots of times I just watch w/o wagering as I want them to win but the price isn't right to actually play them.

[2daBank]

What odds would you give me on a friendly bet: Bills to finish ahead of Dolphins?

If you're interested that is; I'm willing to toss a unit or two ($25-$50) Canadian too, so it's even cheaper for you.

Im down with that, Gentleman's agreement loser will PayPal the other at end of season? cool w whichever number you rather do. But odds? You talking as if Bills the better team so it even money no?

[Ryermkd]

I just can't believe you telling me you looking at bills unbiasedly and saying they a legit playoff contender??

if that really true you should do yourself a favor and refrain from betting them and just root for them cause you incapable of looking at them honestly. If you put these players in another jersey I think your opinion of the talent level be much different.

They cost you pretty much every parlay last week willing to add them laying freaking 10! I mean I guess if it makes ya happy I'll drop it but wouldn't you be happier winning money and simply rooting for your squad? Obviously you care enough you prob don't need the action to enjoy their games!

I'm that way w stl baseball cardinals, I'm far more objective about them so I bet on and against but lots of times I just watch w/o wagering as I want them to win but the price isn't right to actually play them.

You're right to an extent the -10 was god awful... But I explained that... don't think Vegas ever put out a -10... that's just the local-lottery knowing we are all suckers for the Bills, but truth be told they should have covered it; Bills played MUCH better.

[Ryermkd]

Im down with that, Gentleman's agreement loser will PayPal the other at end of season? cool w whichever number you rather do. But odds? You talking as if Bills the better team so it even money no?

I was hoping you'd give better than +100 odds since the Dolphins are improved and clear favourites... I can't find odds for this style of bet anywhere, I'm willing to hear offers; I need better than +100 though.

PayPal is fine and $40? enough to buy a case for most beers. I know you guys have much better prices down south, but a case of Stella is usually $50 here...

[2daBank]

I'll do 50 to your 40 only in name of being a good sport and since it not like we have to tie the money up all year. That why I don't make season win total bets cause the idea of tying my money up on anything that don't come w big odds annoys me, lol..

Phins prob not that big a favs since I think I'm in minority in thinking they improved. Most I saw been betting the win total under and think theirs was juiced to under 8.5 if I'm not mistaken (just going off memory).. that prob best way to figure true odds is look at both teams season w/l totals and adjusting for fact bills already have a win under their belt.. I am also little worried for fish and bucs having to move their week 1 game, think it gives them both a disadvantage that their opponents week 2 already have a game under their belts and then later in year both not getting a bye. Really think that was a raw deal for them and they should have played that game at another local this week..

So like I said even tho you have few built in advantages here with already having a win and the circumstances for fish due to the hurricane postponed game I'll do 50 to your 40 in name of fun

[Ryermkd]

MNF

Additions:

MIN 1H -3(+105) $20.00 to win $21.00
MIN -7.5 (+160) $15.00 to win $24.00

Probably getting carried away, but I really like the Vikings tonight, SKOL! Fair warning next to the Bills they are one of my top 5 favourite teams!

[Ryermkd]

I'll do 50 to your 40 only in name of being a good sport and since it not like we have to tie the money up all year. That why I don't make season win total bets cause the idea of tying my money up on anything that don't come w big odds annoys me, lol..

Phins prob not that big a favs since I think I'm in minority in thinking they improved. Most I saw been betting the win total under and think theirs was juiced to under 8.5 if I'm not mistaken (just going off memory).. that prob best way to figure true odds is look at both teams season w/l totals and adjusting for fact bills already have a win under their belt.. I am also little worried for fish and bucs having to move their week 1 game, think it gives them both a disadvantage that their opponents week 2 already have a game under their belts and then later in year both not getting a bye. Really think that was a raw deal for them and they should have played that game at another local this week..

So like I said even tho you have few built in advantages here with already having a win and the circumstances for fish due to the hurricane postponed game I'll do 50 to your 40 in name of fun

Consider it booked! BOL

Ya I never bet totals or to win Superbowl etc. Same reason: If you're going to make a long-term bet it better be sizable and I wouldn't wanna tie up a few hundred for nothing.

[2daBank]

Some years I do Super Bowl if a team I really like has really good odds.. the year niners switched to kap I put several hundred on them right when they made the move, think it paid like 3500, my dumb ass didn't hedge in Super Bowl vs Ravens as I really thought they were gonna win (so fukkin close!), lol..

Cool bro it's a bet your 40 to my 50. And we will trust we both honorable type cats. I been here shit 8-9 years now? Ya know I ain't going anywhere 🍺

[Ryermkd]

MNF
My Book didn't have a -6.5 option just the dreaded -7.5 hook, oh well. I honestly think we'll be hearing a lot of that Viking horn!

Week 1

KC +9 (-105) $10.00 to win $9.52 WIN
BUF -9 (-105) $30.00 to win $28.57 PUSH
BUF -8 (-110) $30.00 to win $27.27 WIN
CIN -3 (-105) $20.00 to win $19.05 LOSS
CLE +9 (-110) $10.00 to win $9.09 WIN
CLE ml (+325) $10.00 to win $32.50 LOSS
DET ml (+105) $20.00 to win $21.00 WIN
JAK +6 (-115) $20.00 to win $17.39 WIN
GB -3 (-110) $30.00 to win $27.27 WIN
NYG ml (+170) $20.00 to win $34.00 LOSS
MIN -3 (-115) $30.00 to win $26.09
MIN 1H -3(+105) $20.00 to win $21.00 WIN
MIN -7.5 (+160) $15.00 to win $24.00

Parlay(s):
KC+9/BUF-9/CLE+9/JAK+6/GB-3 $5.00 to win $61.52 (Due to Push)
MIN(-155)/DEN(-150) $20.00 to win $34.84

Total Risk W1:$290.00
Profit/Loss:$79.06
Bankroll:$3,079.06 (+2.64%) *Excluding W2 early picks*
Record: (7-3-1)
Parlay Record: (1-0)

[Ryermkd]

Skol!

[Ryermkd]

Another One!

DEN -3 (-105) $21.00 to win $20.00

[Ryermkd]

Week 1

KC +9 (-105) $10.00 to win $9.52 WIN
BUF -9 (-105) $30.00 to win $28.57 PUSH
BUF -8 (-110) $30.00 to win $27.27 WIN
CIN -3 (-105) $20.00 to win $19.05 LOSS
CLE +9 (-110) $10.00 to win $9.09 WIN
CLE ml (+325) $10.00 to win $32.50 LOSS
DET ml (+105) $20.00 to win $21.00 WIN
JAK +6 (-115) $20.00 to win $17.39 WIN
GB -3 (-110) $30.00 to win $27.27 WIN
NYG ml (+170) $20.00 to win $34.00 LOSS
MIN -3 (-115) $30.00 to win $26.09 WIN
MIN 1H -3(+105) $20.00 to win $21.00 WIN
MIN -7.5 (+160) $15.00 to win $24.00 WIN
DEN -3 (-105) $21.00 to win $20.00 PUSH

Parlay(s):
KC+9/BUF-9/CLE+9/JAK+6/GB-3 $5.00 to win $61.52 (Due to Push)
MIN(-155)/DEN(-150) $20.00 to win $34.84

Total Risk W1:$311.00
Profit/Loss:$228.99
Bankroll:$3,228.99 (+7.63%) *Excluding W2 early picks*
Record: (9-3-2)
Parlay Record: (2-0)

[Ryermkd]

Week 2

BUF +7 (+100) $30.00 to win $30.00
SEA -13 (-110) $30.00 to win $27.27

Total Risk W2:$60.00
Profit/Loss W2: TBD
Bankroll:$3,168.99
Profit/Loss:$228.99 (+7.63%)
Record: (9-3-2)
Parlay Record: (2-0)

[Ryermkd]

First Total Play

HOU@CIN o38.5 (-110) $11.00 to win $10.00

[Ryermkd]

See y'all Thursday.

WagerType:4 team teaser
Date:	Team:
Sep 14	NFL [101] TOTAL o32½-105 (B+6) (HOUSTON vrs CINCINNATI)
Sep 17	NFL [265] BUFFALO +13-101 (B+6)
Sep 17	NFL [280] OAKLAND -7½-115 (B+6)
Sep 17	NFL [286] SEATTLE -6½-110 (B+6)
Risking 36.70 SBR To Win 93.59 SBR Ticket#: 3584614

[Ryermkd]

W2 Parlays

BUF +7 (+100)
CHI +7 (-105)
CLE +7.5 (-110)
TEN -2 (-110)
KC -5 (-110)

$5.00 to win $130.84


Teaser: +260

BUF +13
CHI +13
CLE +13.5
TEN +4

$10.00 to win $26.00

[Ryermkd]

Week 2

HOU@CIN o38.5 (-110) $11.00 to win $10.00
HOU +6.5 (-105) $10.50 to win $10.00
BUF +7 (+100) $30.00 to win $30.00
BUF ml (+260) $15.00 to win $39.00
SEA -13 (-110) $30.00 to win $27.27


Parlay(s):
BUF+7/CHI+7/CLE+7.5/TEN-2/KC-5 $5.00 to win $130.84
BUF+13/CHI+13/CLE+13.5/TEN+4 $10.00 to win $26.00


Total Risk W2: $111.50
Profit/Loss W2: TBD
Bankroll: $3,117.49
Profit/Loss: $228.99 (+7.63%)
Record: (9-3-2)
Parlay Record: (2-0)

[Ryermkd]

I'll take Ryermkd takes Bills ML this week for -1000 Alex

THIS ONE'S FOR MY BOY!

BILLS ML +260 $15.00 to win $39.00

[Ryermkd]

TNF

HOU +6.5 (-105) $10.50 to win $10.00


Not sure if I got fished here... Just need more action to watch the game.
I said if the line moved above +6 I'd take it, perhaps I'm too early we'll see.
Marvin Lewis should have been canned years ago, his Bungles always under-perform; expect to see much of the same.


24-21 Bungles. They squeak it out, original line pushes.

[Ryermkd]

If I'm wrong I'm wrong, and if it pushes it pushes.
Little too much value here for me, I expect a big game from Murray and Mariota to play much better.

TEN -3 (+115) $20.00 to win $23.00