Two Thousand Sixteen

[JayDr3am]

Week Three

Buffalo Bills +4 (-105)
Tennessee Titans +1 (-105)
Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks -9.5 (-105)
Chicago Bears +7.5 (-105)

im with you on the bears.. ill have to sleep on that one. BOL this afternoon pool

[16kredit]

Pool what are your thoughts about the sea and GB bet? Sea might be very upset and mad so pretty motivated to blow out SF. But does GB have the firepower on both sides to handle the inproved lions? Are you thinking historically the lions perform poorly at L. field?

[2daBank]

Pool what are your thoughts about the sea and GB bet? Sea might be very upset and mad so pretty motivated to blow out SF. But does GB have the firepower on both sides to handle the inproved lions? Are you thinking historically the lions perform poorly at L. field?

Just off memory I feel like lions have played pack incredibly tough last few years. I could be wrong but I know they won outright as 10 point dogs last season. I can't see playing pack laying a td vs anyone with a pulse.. Sea should curb stomp sf, their defense -110 to score a td!! Sf front isn't good enough to take adv of sea poor oline.

[Time is Money]

Thoughts on Jags and Giants?

[POOLSIDE]

Pool what are your thoughts about the sea and GB bet? Sea might be very upset and mad so pretty motivated to blow out SF. But does GB have the firepower on both sides to handle the inproved lions? Are you thinking historically the lions perform poorly at L. field?

Just off memory I feel like lions have played pack incredibly tough last few years. I could be wrong but I know they won outright as 10 point dogs last season. I can't see playing pack laying a td vs anyone with a pulse.. Sea should curb stomp sf, their defense -110 to score a td!! Sf front isn't good enough to take adv of sea poor oline.

<br>
Banker pretty much told the story on the Seahawks. Getting them off a loss to the somehow public darling Niners in a building they've owned the Niners in seems like as good a spot as any.

As for the Packers, this might sound weird and stupid. I was watching them lose the Vikings game last week (I was on the Vikings btw) and as soon as it ended, I told myself take the Packers next week no matter what the line is. I think they're nowhere near as bad as they've looked over two games. They had to go down to Florida in September and play a scrappy Jacksonville team they probably didn't take that seriously. Felt like a look ahead game to their division matchup in Minnesota against a Vikings team they simply don't match up well with. Now they have their home opener, stadium will be crazy, fans have waited eight months to watch football (and there's not much else to do in Green Bay besides watch football) so they'll be extra rabid, and they hate the Lions and are sick of hearing about how the Lions beat them in Lambeau last year. Feels like a statement game.

Also, I'm kind of sick of hearing about how improved the Lions are. Where is this thought process coming from? They barely beat a horrific Colts team on a last second field goal, then they lose at home to a pretty average Titans squad. They're a field goal away from being 0-2 to two teams in the bottom half of the power rankings. What are we so impressed about?

[POOLSIDE]

Thoughts on Jags and Giants?

I'd have bet the Jags here if they weren't playing in London next week. Betting on teams the week before they go to London has been bad news.

I also would have taken the Skins here, but I've lost on them two weeks in a row so I've gotta lay off.

[2daBank]

I'm starting to come around to thinking discount double bitch has a monster game today..

[JayDr3am]

I'd have bet the Jags here if they weren't playing in London next week. Betting on teams the week before hey go to London has been bad news.

I also would have taken the Skins here, but I've lost on them two weeks in a row so I've gotta lay off.

and we know how those london games go..

[POOLSIDE]

Week Three
3-2 (+0.9)

2016
11-9 (+1.55)

[mkracier]

Another one of the best posters on this forum.

Thanks for all the plays and keep killin it POOLSIDE.

Will PM you shortly.

[POOLSIDE]

Week Four

San Francisco 49ers +2.5 (-105)
New York Jets +2.5 (-105)
Chicago Bears +3 (+101)
Carolina Panthers -3 (-105)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (even)
New York Giants +4 (-105)

[eddycash]

Why panthers with Norman out?

[POOLSIDE]

Why panthers with Norman out?

Hmm. Typo?

[JayDr3am]

Why panthers with Norman out?

lol

[Time is Money]

Week Four

San Francisco 49ers +2.5 (-105)
New York Jets +2.5 (-105)
Chicago Bears +3 (+101)
Carolina Panthers -3 (-105)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (even)
New York Giants +4 (-105)

What's the angle on Bucs? That QB playing over his head for sure and RLM all over this game, but I just haven't seen much out the Bucs to make me comfortable laying money.

What do you think about Oakland with points? Think Baltimore the most overrated undefeated team by far. Should have lost to Browns and Jags.

[POOLSIDE]

What's the angle on Bucs? That QB playing over his head for sure and RLM all over this game, but I just haven't seen much out the Bucs to make me comfortable laying money.

What do you think about Oakland with points? Think Baltimore the most overrated undefeated team by far. Should have lost to Browns and Jags.

I'm a Raiders fan, so I'm sure they'll lose by four or more. I can't get any feel for that team. They're so young and inconsistent and explosive that they can cover any spread just as easily as they can get blown out.

As for the Bucs, Denver was getting three and a half last weekend on the road. Now they're laying three? You're saying they'd be nearly double digit favorites over the Bucs at home? Double digits means that the difference between Denver and Tampa is the same as the difference between Seattle and the Niners/Dolphins. You're also telling me that Cincinnati is six and a half points better than Tampa? Cincy would be -9.5 vs Tampa in Ohio? So now you're also telling me that Miami is two points better than Tampa? None of this adds up. Plus we get a young quarterback laying points on the road for the first time, and it's his first back to back road game, and it's hot, muggy, and humid in Florida. I'm not sure how you lay a full field goal here with the Broncos. They're just going to keep covering every week?

[pilebuck13]

+2.5 on jets I see Seattle covering this pool I like the others Fitzpatrick is absolute ass garbage I'll take a banged up Wilson and the Seattle defense any day, line seems about right to me

[POOLSIDE]

+2.5 on jets I see Seattle covering this pool I like the others Fitzpatrick is absolute ass garbage I'll take a banged up Wilson and the Seattle defense any day, line seems about right to me

This game is basically the same thing as the Denver game, the line is high. I think the Jets should be a short favorite here. This line says Seattle would be -8.5 in Seattle. Umm, no. Seattle was -9.5 over the Niners last week. The Jets are only one point better than the Niners? This is absurd.

Plus you're getting one of the best d lines against hands down the worst o line in football, and Seattle's scrambling quarterback is playing on a sprained ankle and injured knee. This is a perfect storm for an inflated line. Seattle whooped sf last week (something they always do) and Fitzpatrick had literally the worst statistical game by a quarterback in the history of football.

For the record, I could absolutely lose both of these games and sound like an idiot. However, these are the types of bets that I know will win long term.

[pilebuck13]

I get yah poolside good analysis best of luck brother

[POOLSIDE]

I get yah poolside good analysis best of luck brother

You too. Hopefully you got Seattle at -1.5 and we both win lolol.

[Time is Money]

This game is basically the same thing as the Denver game, the line is high. I think the Jets should be a short favorite here. This line says Seattle would be -8.5 in Seattle. Umm, no. Seattle was -9.5 over the Niners last week. The Jets are only one point better than the Niners? This is absurd.

Plus you're getting one of the best d lines against hands down the worst o line in football, and Seattle's scrambling quarterback is playing on a sprained ankle and injured knee. This is a perfect storm for an inflated line. Seattle whooped sf last week (something they always do) and Fitzpatrick had literally the worst statistical game by a quarterback in the history of football.

For the record, I could absolutely lose both of these games and sound like an idiot. However, these are the types of bets that I know will win long term.

Add to that the game is 1PM Eastern, West Coast teams playing in that time slot historically struggle.

[POOLSIDE]

Add to that the game is 1PM Eastern, West Coast teams playing in that time slot historically struggle.

Yeah, good point. Totally forgot that. Just seems like a really really bad spot for Seattle.

[16kredit]

I wanted to ask about Chicago, then I realised you faded detroit last week also and explained there, that you think the lions didnt improve that much. Also they put up 27 points basically against a prevent defense (in second half). Now division game on the road laying 3. Very high public bet also. could spell disaster for the lions by these angles. You think like a 20-17 bears type of game or more of a shootout with stafford making bad decisions in the end? Because Lions probably have the edge on offensive weapons.

[POOLSIDE]

I wanted to ask about Chicago, then I realised you faded detroit last week also and explained there, that you think the lions didnt improve that much. Also they put up 27 points basically against a prevent defense (in second half). Now division game on the road laying 3. Very high public bet also. could spell disaster for the lions by these angles. You think like a 20-17 bears type of game or more of a shootout with stafford making bad decisions in the end? Because Lions probably have the edge on offensive weapons.

This feels like a field goal game. Whether it's 20-17 or 37-34, I can't tell you. What I do know is that Hoyer isn't afraid to throw the ball downfield. He can keep up with Detroit, who basically can't stop anyone.

I know I sound like a broken record, but this is again a game that I think the line is too high. The casinos know they'll get action on just about anyone as a short favorite over the publicly perceived garbage Bears, so bumping this up to a field goal and picking a side is a major long term winning proposition for them.

The line right now is Detroit -3.5. Imagine if this game were in Detroit and the line was the same. You think nearly 80% of the bets would be on the Lions if they were -9.5 at home? Not a chance. People see the Bears and then they see a short line on the Lions and voila, they think the casino is giving money away.

Watch later in the season when the Bears travel to Detroit. Barring major injuries, no way is that line over Lions -7.5, and I'm guessing it'll be a little lower. We're getting a full field goal here. I totally expect this game to be tight late in the fourth quarter.

[Time is Money]

Hell of a day to take square plays, had a rough day too.

Anything tonight?

[POOLSIDE]

Well that was the worst week I've had in a loooooong time.

Week Four
1-5 (-4.19)

2016
12-14 (-2.64)

[POOLSIDE]

Week Five

Cleveland Browns +10.5 (-105)
San Diego Chargers +3.5 (-105)
San Diego Chargers ml (+162)
New York Jets +7 (+103)
New York Jets -1 (+307)
Denver Broncos -6 (+105)
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)

[16kredit]

Hey Pool I see -4,5 or 5 with denver. The QB isnt decided yet. But yea not like the QB was their main key to winning this year.

[POOLSIDE]

Hey Pool I see -4,5 or 5 with denver. The QB isnt decided yet. But yea not like the QB was their main key to winning this year.

I sold it down to six. Five is a dead number and I'm not afraid of six in this game. If Denver wins, I think they win big.

[Time is Money]

Was thinking you would be on Lions for sure, no lean in that game?

Love Denver. See a lot of value in Bengals. Dallas first home win in over a full season just came a few weeks ago against the Bears. I think Dak finally struggles tomorrow.

[POOLSIDE]

Was thinking you would be on Lions for sure, no lean in that game?

Love Denver. See a lot of value in Bengals. Dallas first home win in over a full season just came a few weeks ago against the Bears. I think Dak finally struggles tomorrow.

Lions were a borderline play, along with Houston. I decided to lay off though. Something felt weird to me there. Cincy or nothing on that game, but I think the pickem line is sharper than it looks. Plus, something seems a little off with Cincy.

[Time is Money]

What's the angle with Chargers? Seem like they always find a way to lose anymore. Saints, Chiefs, Colts. These are all teams they should have beat.

[POOLSIDE]

What's the angle with Chargers? Seem like they always find a way to lose anymore. Saints, Chiefs, Colts. These are all teams they should have beat.

The Raiders could easily be 1-3 and the Chargers should be 4-0. These scenarios where Oakland comes from behind late and where the Chargers cough it up late probably aren't sustainable.

[pilebuck13]

Poolside really think the ravens are a slam dunk this week 👍

[POOLSIDE]

Poolside really think the ravens are a slam dunk this week 

After last week, I sure hope so!