Over

BigdaddyQH · 01-25-14, 11:47 AM

You have two head coaches who want to control the clock. Just look at how many points these two teams have scored in their first two playoff games. Denver's games have had a total of 41 and 42 points scored. Seattle games have had a total of 38 and 40 points. The weather is going to be poor, at best. Look at how much time their scoring drives ate up. The under is the play here.

I/O · 01-25-14, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

You have two head coaches who want to control the clock. Just look at how many points these two teams have scored in their first two playoff games. Denver's games have had a total of 41 and 42 points scored. Seattle games have had a total of 38 and 40 points. The weather is going to be poor, at best. Look at how much time their scoring drives ate up. The under is the play here.

I may be thinking too much into this one, but your take on this total has to be the "very obvious" one.

Impressed that you have the weather down 8 days out. We'll see what shakes. GL on your action.

Tommy Blingshyne · 01-25-14, 02:45 PM

the very obvious play is that denver offense is so prolific that the total easily goes over regardless of weather...the smart play, IMO, is on the under

sandyw123 · 01-26-14, 12:44 AM

I would go under. Both Denver and Seattle totals in their playoff games have gone under. Denver's has been playing much better defense in the playoffs.

I/O · 01-26-14, 07:40 AM

feel free to correct anything here...

fwiw

Seattle has played 4 road games on turf (NOT a nuetral field as in the SB). NYG, Atl, STL, and Indy. They av 24.5 pts vs these teams (that don't have an offense like Denver). Atlanta's D allowed 3 pts per game more than Denver. The other three teams D had better scoring numbers than Denver. On the season, Denvers D has allowed 25 pts a game.

As far as total yds, again, of the four Seattle played, basically only Atlanta's D allowed more yds than Denver.

In Denver's 4 turf games on the road this season, they allowed 36 pts per game vs the offenses of NE, Indy, Dallas, and NYG. I'm gonna step out and say it might be possible that Denver wanted to control those games as well. Or, more likely, they decided to outscore those teams.

Methinks Seattle can hit their scoring average in the Super Bowl on turf vs this Denver D at a neutral site.

I/O · 01-26-14, 07:46 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

You have two head coaches who want to control the clock. Just look at how many points these two teams have scored in their first two playoff games. Denver's games have had a total of 41 and 42 points scored. Seattle games have had a total of 38 and 40 points. The weather is going to be poor, at best. Look at how much time their scoring drives ate up. The under is the play here.

7 days out........

Could the NFL possibly rattle the cage any more, meteorologically speaking? Let's look at the outlook for Super Bowl week.

Super Bowl Week: Brrrr....Early

If you have plans to attend the festivities early in the week, dress in layers.
An Arctic cold front will sweep through Monday, sending temperatures on a nosedive.
Highs Tuesday in northern New Jersey will likely not rise out of the teens, and may barely rise into the low 20s Wednesday. Persistent west to northwest winds will produce wind chills in the single digits Tuesday.
Morning lows Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday morning will likely be in the single digits.
(FORECAST: Arctic Cold Continues)
Monday's Arctic front will be moisture-starved, so expect perhaps a brief band of light snow with no accumulations.
Earlier, we had been watching a potential East Coast snow event for mid-week. However, it now appears that weak low pressure will form well offshore with cold, dry air too dominant. Therefore, we expect any snow to remain well to the east of the NYC metro area from this mid-week system.
Finally, a weaker cold front looks to sweep through Thursday or Thursday night, with only light snow or flurries expected.

Super Bowl Weekend: Snow Bowl?

We're still a week away from Super Bowl Sunday, so it is not possible to confidently nail down specifics – snow, wind, temperature forecasts – for the game at this time. We'll be able to do that in the coming days.
There are two main weather stories we're focusing on for Super Bowl weekend:

Not as cold. Just in time, it appears the frigid cold from earlier in the week will relent. Instead of daily highs in the teens and 20s, it appears 30s or even perhaps low 40s will be in play for the big weekend, closer to average for early February.
Snow, freezing rain, or rain? To be clear, we are not anticipating a major storm with heavy precipitation to affect the Northeast on Super Bowl weekend. However, we are expecting a frontal system to slide into the Northeast Saturday, potentially stalling out into Super Bowl Sunday. With colder air retreating, all precipitation types, from snow, to sleet, freezing rain, even rain, are on the table with this system. While the majority of our guidance suggests most of this precipitation may fall Saturday into early Sunday, we still can't rule out any lingering precipitation during the game itself.

I/O · 01-26-14, 07:54 AM

Outside of the weather significantly changing from what is above in the next 7 days., I don't think the weather will play any factor on the turf in this football game.

I/O · 01-28-14, 08:48 AM

As of Tuesday am, weather still looking tame for Sunday. In the thirties, possible precipitation early but ending, wind will not be a factor. In other words, weather should be fine. Bookmaker has line back up to (47-).

Hope Percy plays. At least a bit to give Denver something else to think about.

slacker00 · 01-28-14, 09:24 AM

Are they still talking about moving the game to Saturday? The desperate media circus is just sad.

aman86 · 01-28-14, 01:12 PM

under ez$$$$....gonna be a grind and pound type game

I/O · 01-29-14, 01:04 PM

adding...off the radio...

This vaunted Seattle defense has not faced any high powered passing offenses so far this year. The highest rated passing offense was the Cardinals at number 13, and they lost to them.

IllyPhilly[DOC] · 01-29-14, 01:48 PM

Yet the line opens at 48... Why isn't it 50 or 51? I would take the over no doubt if it opened higher. I'm puzzled by the 48 opener. Watch it end 34-10 Denver. I really see RW struggling like Kaep did last year SB. And like someone noted that Denver ate up a lot of clock with their drives. Manning in the no huddle doesn't snap the ball til like 3 seconds left. Tho they can score at will in 3 seconds too LOL

Yuuuup11 · 01-29-14, 01:53 PM

Over under?

BigdaddyQH · 01-29-14, 01:57 PM

Here is the bottom line. First, weather will play a factor in the game, unless you do NOT count wind, which is worse than rain or snow. If the winds due pick up (right now, 11 MPH is in the forcast) it will kill the over.

Next, Seattle has scored no more than 27 points in their last 6 games, and averaged just 20.5 points per game during that span. They scored just 23 points at home against a New Orleans defense that is not very good. The Denver defense has given up 60 points in their past 4 games, an average of just 15 points per game.

The Denver offense is averaging just 25 points per game, and that is at home against two teams with rather poor defenses (San Diego and New England). Meanwhile the Seattle defense has NOT given up more than 17 points since December. They held the New Orleans Offense to 22 points in TWO games. They aare averaging just 10.48 points allowed per game for their last 7 games.

Both Head Coaches are ball control types of coaches. Denver's John Fox andSeattle's Pete Carroll BOTH want long drives that eat up the clock. Neither HC wants to get into a scoring duel. Carroll will run all game long, no matter what the situation is. This is what he did against the 49ers. He will try to wear down the Denver defensive front line. Denver will counter with a running game and short passing game to control the clock. Against the 49ers, Seattle had 5 drives of over 4 minutes. They had 4 drives of over 4 minutes against New Orleans. Against New England, Denver had 4 drives of over 4 minutes and two drives of over 7 minutes. Denver also had 4 drives over 4 minutes and one drive over 7 minutes against San Diego. That is called ball control and that is why the under is a very good wager here.

I/O · 01-29-14, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Here is the bottom line. First, weather will play a factor in the game, unless you do NOT count wind, which is worse than rain or snow. If the winds due pick up (right now, 11 MPH is in the forcast) it will kill the over.

Next, Seattle has scored no more than 27 points in their last 6 games, and averaged just 20.5 points per game during that span. They scored just 23 points at home against a New Orleans defense that is not very good. The Denver defense has given up 60 points in their past 4 games, an average of just 15 points per game.

The Denver offense is averaging just 25 points per game, and that is at home against two teams with rather poor defenses (San Diego and New England). Meanwhile the Seattle defense has NOT given up more than 17 points since December. They held the New Orleans Offense to 22 points in TWO games. They aare averaging just 10.48 points allowed per game for their last 7 games.

Both Head Coaches are ball control types of coaches. Denver's John Fox andSeattle's Pete Carroll BOTH want long drives that eat up the clock. Neither HC wants to get into a scoring duel. Carroll will run all game long, no matter what the situation is. This is what he did against the 49ers. He will try to wear down the Denver defensive front line. Denver will counter with a running game and short passing game to control the clock. Against the 49ers, Seattle had 5 drives of over 4 minutes. They had 4 drives of over 4 minutes against New Orleans. Against New England, Denver had 4 drives of over 4 minutes and two drives of over 7 minutes. Denver also had 4 drives over 4 minutes and one drive over 7 minutes against San Diego. That is called ball control and that is why the under is a very good wager here.

11mph?? is gonna kill an Over? If it goes Under, it won't be because of the wind. Weather will not play a major factor in this game.

different stadiums, but the wind for the last two NFL games played....NORTHWEST WIND 9-14. ,NORTHEAST WIND 6-11

Don't remember it being a factor in either game

I/O · 01-29-14, 03:01 PM

As of today, Wednesday....winds 9 mph during the day dropping to 6 mph at night

Super Bowl Forecast

Updated: Jan 29, 2014, 1:10pm EST

Desktop App

Mostly Cloudy. Highs in the low 40s and lows in the upper 20s.

Day Feb 2

41°FHigh
Cloudy

Chance of Rain:0%Wind:WNW at 9 mphHumidity:65%UV Index:1 - LowSunrise:7:06 amMoonrise:8:29 amMoonphase:Waxing Crescent

Collapse Details

Night

28°Low
Cloudy

Chance of Rain:20%Wind:N at 6 mphHumidity:73%

Expand DetailsF

OTL · 01-29-14, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Next, Seattle has scored no more than 27 points in their last 6 games, and averaged just 20.5 points per game during that span. They scored just 23 points at home against a New Orleans defense that is not very good.

You're a year late with that assessment. NO's defence was hugely improved this season, and was not a weak spot any longer.

I/O · 01-29-14, 06:32 PM

Bookmaker now 48

Capper1124 · 01-29-14, 08:41 PM

Over is the way to go here. GL

I/O · 01-30-14, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by IllyPhilly[DOC]

Yet the line opens at 48... Why isn't it 50 or 51? I would take the over no doubt if it opened higher. I'm puzzled by the 48 opener. Watch it end 34-10 Denver. I really see RW struggling like Kaep did last year SB. And like someone noted that Denver ate up a lot of clock with their drives. Manning in the no huddle doesn't snap the ball til like 3 seconds left. Tho they can score at will in 3 seconds too LOL

Bookmaker now (48-)

I/O · 01-30-14, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by Capper1124

Over is the way to go here. GL

Make it happen Capper!

I/O · 01-31-14, 08:45 AM

For those interested, heard the main guy from the Prediction Machine doing his usual weekly thing today and he said all their info on the SB is free and available. He also likes a number of props.

slacker00 · 01-31-14, 09:54 AM

The only way I'd take the over is in teaser form. Both teams likely play ball control.

I/O · 02-01-14, 07:11 PM

back down to 48

I/O · 02-02-14, 09:29 PM

The fukin snow is killing my Over!!