Thursday Night LOCK

[JM17]

GUARANTEE THIS PARLAY CASHES:
BENGALS -3
OVER 43

This bet has received the official JM17 seal of approval. Don't fade me bro. On the other hand, trail me for days.

[2daBank]

be lucky to split imo..

[JM17]

be lucky to split imo..

Trail either one and win. Trail in the form of a parlay and win even more. Any form of fading will be a huge mistake.

[2daBank]

Trail either one and win. Trail in the form of a parlay and win even more. Any form of fading will be a huge mistake.

dont fade anyone but if i played either they would both be opposite of yours, especially the under as i think if you hit that it gonna be by some stupid late bs barely pushing it over as these teams gonna run a lot, dalton not gonna smoke mia pass d and their run d is vulnerable, fish may struggle to run but that just means they gonna struggle period..i made 44 the high side of this gm and lean more toward 38-41 range..

[YOUNGBUCK]

Love under here

[eagle8999]

What you guys think of prop betting first score from either team a fg or safety?

[JM17]

Love under here

I'm sorry if you put money on that. You realize the bengals put up like 85% of the over on their own against a solid jets defense last week?

[rainman416]

Gonna be on the MIA(ML) and the UNDER...

Classic "easy pick" on Cincy-2.5 with last weeks action still fresh in mind... would be surprised if it won.. not shocked.. but possibly one eyebrow raised.

Thus.. Fish(ML) for this guy... and yea.. seeing a lot of punts in this game... possibly over 7 or 8.

[rainman416]

I'm sorry if you put money on that. You realize the bengals put up like 85% of the over on their own against a solid jets defense last week?

Jets also beat ATL straight up in the Dome.. Crazy things happen.. the more certain you are in a play, the tighter grasp Vegas has on your balls.. Careful tomorrow night

[JM17]

Gonna be on the MIA(ML) and the UNDER...

Classic "easy pick" on Cincy-2.5 with last weeks action still fresh in mind... would be surprised if it won.. not shocked.. but possibly one eyebrow raised.

Thus.. Fish(ML) for this guy... and yea.. seeing a lot of punts in this game... possibly over 7 or 8.

You still have around 20 hours to hedge out.

[2daBank]

I'm sorry if you put money on that. You realize the bengals put up like 85% of the over on their own against a solid jets defense last week?

lol..do you realize that gm is gonna play out nothing like this one? way to beat jets this year=through the air, bamn sure not on the ground as they barely allow 3ypc. way to beat fish=on the ground and stay away from the creative schemes they throw at qbs and cameron wake..this gm has 20-17, 21-20, 23-17, hell maybe even 19-16 written all over it...

[rainman416]

You still have around 20 hours to hedge out.

Haven't played it yet.. not 100% about the trigger pull.. IF I bet it will be on MIA.. and that being the case.. I'm gonna make it a last minute play, as I'm guessing this line will move in Cincy's favour by gametime..

GL either way.. prolly bettin' more than me lol. hating football this season, so only playing with $10 units...

[Ferndog68]

This is not an easy game. why not wait and get free money on cowboys this weekend. that's the easiest game on the board

[Aussiefalconfan]

Why risk it ?

Just hammer bengals -3 like a normal capper

[SteveRyan]

"

[JM17]

The over will happen. Deal with it.

[JM17]

And after it happens y'all be suckin on my ballsack

[carp]

I have to agree with the over, and nailing cincy at -1.5 was a no brainer to me. Miami was a fluke to start the year with tannehill at the helm.

[wildcorndog]

I agree with this bet.

[mwgriffin]

dolphins sucking, guys in jail, emotional breakdowns - doesn't look good. but since thursday is FU day, i took the dolphins ml. I lose so much these days that i'm trying to pick losers now.

[frank9166]

Don't know why everyone loves the under here... The Bengal's secondary is banged up (last time I looked) and Miami doesn't run that much (probably because they're always losing). I'm thinking this is a pass happy type of game with a lot of turnovers on Miami's side with their terrible O-line causing bad decisions out of Tannehill. I bet this line very early at 42 so I'm rolling with the over.

[2daBank]

Don't know why everyone loves the under here... The Bengal's secondary is banged up (last time I looked) and Miami doesn't run that much (probably because they're always losing). I'm thinking this is a pass happy type of game with a lot of turnovers on Miami's side with their terrible O-line causing bad decisions out of Tannehill. I bet this line very early at 42 so I'm rolling with the over.

most are on the over, there no way this a pass happy gm.. sure it could go over, sadly ive been wrong plenty and i doubt that stops anytime soon as it the nature of the beast, that said even if it does goes over id be fukkin shocked if this was anything close to a pass happy gm..perfect spot against a good mia pass d for bungals to get their run gm they gonna need down the stretch back on track.

[joco]

I lean Under even tho almost all the Thursday nite games so far have been over

[frank9166]

most are on the over, there no way this a pass happy gm.. sure it could go over, sadly ive been wrong plenty and i doubt that stops anytime soon as it the nature of the beast, that said even if it does goes over id be fukkin shocked if this was anything close to a pass happy gm..perfect spot against a good mia pass d for bungals to get their run gm they gonna need down the stretch back on track.

Cincinnati is a middling-to-below average rushing team (19th in the league in YPG) while being a top 7 passing team (YPG). I expect them to be willing to throw against a Miami pass D that's in the bottom 1/3 of the league in pass defense (and rush defense for that matter).

Miami's pass-run breakdown is heavily skewed to pass (mostly because they keep losing). They're 30th in the league in rush attempts. Their offensive line is god awful and apparently one of them just quit on Wednesday lol.

And I can't imagine Marvin Lewis is going to try to tone down Dalton tonight after what he just did. I think they come out swinging, grab a quick lead and force Miami to play catch up by throwing a lot. And with Cincy's secondary facing injuries, Miami could have some success mixed with awful turnovers leading to more scoring opps for Cincy.

[2daBank]

Cincinnati is a middling-to-below average rushing team (19th in the league in YPG) while being a top 7 passing team (YPG). I expect them to be willing to throw against a Miami pass D that's in the bottom 1/3 of the league in pass defense (and rush defense for that matter).

Miami's pass-run breakdown is heavily skewed to pass (mostly because they keep losing). They're 30th in the league in rush attempts. Their offensive line is god awful and apparently one of them just quit on Wednesday lol.

And I can't imagine Marvin Lewis is going to try to tone down Dalton tonight after what he just did. I think they come out swinging, grab a quick lead and force Miami to play catch up by throwing a lot. And with Cincy's secondary facing injuries, Miami could have some success mixed with awful turnovers leading to more scoring opps for Cincy.

mia pass defense is much better than bottom 3rd imo.. cincy still attempts 28 rushes per gm and they be well served to do exactly that and tone down dalton and establish a run gm instead of let mia get after him with the good scheme they run to free pass rushers. id love fish if i thought cincy would come out gunning and not rushing, doubt im smarter than the guys calling the shots so gonna assume they realize the same thing.. sure mia might be forced to pass more at some point but they been making more of a effort in the run gm of late and with the way cincy gets after the passer and the way they suck at pass pro and tannenhill has the tendency to hold the ball too long they better at least try and run, if and when they do get down i dont expect a lot of success if they strictly passing...guess we shall see.

[freakydave]

mia pass defense is much better than bottom 3rd imo.. cincy still attempts 28 rushes per gm and they be well served to do exactly that and tone down dalton and establish a run gm instead of let mia get after him with the good scheme they run to free pass rushers. id love fish if i thought cincy would come out gunning and not rushing, doubt im smarter than the guys calling the shots so gonna assume they realize the same thing.. sure mia might be forced to pass more at some point but they been making more of a effort in the run gm of late and with the way cincy gets after the passer and the way they suck at pass pro and tannenhill has the tendency to hold the ball too long they better at least try and run, if and when they do get down i dont expect a lot of success if they strictly passing...guess we shall see.

you are being a little clever here saying you are not as smart as them but implying if they don't employ your strategy they are not as smart as you. I'm tailing the op you can't bet on a team on a 4 game losing streak with a player leaving the team & one being given a subpoena & players in the Dolphins locker room are beginning to question offensive coordinator Mike Sherman's play calling.(espn)-You can believe mia's pass D is better than it's ranked(20th yds/gm) I think it's bottom 3rd because that's how they played.

[2daBank]

you are being a little clever here saying you are not as smart as them but implying if they don't employ your strategy they are not as smart as you. I'm tailing the op you can't bet on a team on a 4 game losing streak with a player leaving the team & one being given a subpoena & players in the Dolphins locker room are beginning to question offensive coordinator Mike Sherman's play calling.(espn)-You can believe mia's pass D is better than it's ranked(20th yds/gm) I think it's bottom 3rd because that's how they played.

yards a gm doesnt really make or break how i rate a pass d, they dont give up passing tds, they hold qbs to a 80 rating, they rush the passer very well, their schemes are very good..yards a gm? hardly in the top 10 of things i use to rate a defense..not to mention they played several gms w/o their best pass rusher...tail whoever you want, i dont tail or fade anyone i cap the gm, and both teams will run the ball quite a bit or their qbs will either be on the ground or making mistakes..

[finfan88]

Fins will win

[brigade125]

Fins will win

bengals will disapoint those miami fans ... bengals are the better team here... dont fall into the hype of let down game.. pound the bengals.. once the fins fall behind in the game...its over.. the bengals defense is too good .. the dolphins will abondon the run and tennehill will throw picks all day.... pound the bengals... the books are going to lose their money for giving a ridicoulous line ....the line is completely off....

[frank9166]

This feels just like the time everyone was on Arizona +6.5 @ home against Seattle...

[mtofell]

The over is an easy call here. I'm surprised it's so low (43). Look at the scores from both teams this season. As someone said earlier CIN will cover that by themselves. I could see shying against it and not playing but the under is crazy IMO.

Parlay it with the over on the NBA LAC v GSW game tonight.... 2 high powered teams with an over/under of 206 is crazy!!!! They'll blow by that in 3 qtrs.

[brigade125]

This feels just like the time everyone was on Arizona +6.5 @ home against Seattle...

were not talking about a 6.5 spread ...its -3 and lower at other places

[2daBank]

The over is an easy call here. I'm surprised it's so low (43). Look at the scores from both teams this season. As someone said earlier CIN will cover that by themselves. I could see shying against it and not playing but the under is crazy IMO.

Parlay it with the over on the NBA LAC v GSW game tonight.... 2 high powered teams with an over/under of 206 is crazy!!!! They'll blow by that in 3 qtrs.

ppl crack me up.. it like you dont understand numbers

[JM17]

A few more hours to jump on this winning parlay.

[cpay]

good call I am all in