This game caught my eye for 2 main reasons:
The total opened at 54
Michael Vick
I'm positive there is a way to find some value somewhere in this match; the question is where.
In this thread I will give you an insight into how I cap games. I also am looking forward to input from those who can bring something substantial to the table.
First lets look at the opening line:
Total - 54
Philly -6.5
So lets think; how did the book come up with this? Obviously, they see NY scoring 24 and Philly scoring 30, but how do they arrive at these scores?
Giants have played 7 games. They've scored 15 TD's and 7 FG. That means they averaged 2.14 TD's per game and 1 FG per game. Add it up and we come to 17 points. But wait...were short 7 points off of the books 24.
The reason why is because they are excluding the week 3 game where they scored 0. By doing this, it creates a better representation of the Giants actual scoring potential. So, we do the math again, but at 6 games instead of 7. Now, Giants average 2.5 TD's per game and still 1 FG. Round up the TD's to 3 and we have our magic score of 24. Seems simple enough. Now on to Philly.
Philly has also played 7 games, but they've scored 18 TD's and 14 FG's. That averages to 2.57 TD's per game and 2 FG's. Round up the TD's to 3, add the FG's and we end up with 27. Again, we are short of the 30....but by only 3 points.
The books are adding an additional field goal. Why? Because Vick is a highly mobile QB who will get the Eagles down around the red zone one additional time.
So there we have it.
NY 24
Philly 30 / -6.5
Now the questions are:
Why the hook? Why the extra .5?
What will the Giants actually score in this game?
How accurate is Phillys 30?
The total opened at 54
Michael Vick
I'm positive there is a way to find some value somewhere in this match; the question is where.
In this thread I will give you an insight into how I cap games. I also am looking forward to input from those who can bring something substantial to the table.
First lets look at the opening line:
Total - 54
Philly -6.5
So lets think; how did the book come up with this? Obviously, they see NY scoring 24 and Philly scoring 30, but how do they arrive at these scores?
Giants have played 7 games. They've scored 15 TD's and 7 FG. That means they averaged 2.14 TD's per game and 1 FG per game. Add it up and we come to 17 points. But wait...were short 7 points off of the books 24.
The reason why is because they are excluding the week 3 game where they scored 0. By doing this, it creates a better representation of the Giants actual scoring potential. So, we do the math again, but at 6 games instead of 7. Now, Giants average 2.5 TD's per game and still 1 FG. Round up the TD's to 3 and we have our magic score of 24. Seems simple enough. Now on to Philly.
Philly has also played 7 games, but they've scored 18 TD's and 14 FG's. That averages to 2.57 TD's per game and 2 FG's. Round up the TD's to 3, add the FG's and we end up with 27. Again, we are short of the 30....but by only 3 points.
The books are adding an additional field goal. Why? Because Vick is a highly mobile QB who will get the Eagles down around the red zone one additional time.
So there we have it.
NY 24
Philly 30 / -6.5
Now the questions are:
Why the hook? Why the extra .5?
What will the Giants actually score in this game?
How accurate is Phillys 30?