Fire away on under 48.5 on MNF. Big

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  • ashulga
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-16-12
    • 247

    #1
    Fire away on under 48.5 on MNF. Big
    This game is going under. This is my strongest play of the week. Two desperate teams in need of a win will bring conservative approach in an effort to eliminate turnovers. Minn will run the ball as much as they can and freeman didnt exactly light up the scoreboad with some good weapons in Tampa. Eli has been a turnover machine and they will shorten the passing game to rebuild his cinfidence and to move ball more consistently. This is a huge under play.
    I also believe both defenses will bring more intensity and play their best games of the year. They aren't exactly stopping potent offenses.
    BOL
  • hustlehard617
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-05-12
    • 574

    #2
    I'm considering the under myself
    Comment
    • Trmeyer
      SBR MVP
      • 11-03-11
      • 1836

      #3
      They aren't exactly stopping any offense.
      Comment
      • CashItIn
        SBR Sharp
        • 09-05-09
        • 462

        #4
        I've noticed people always post about seeing the public pound a play so they fade, but how does the under on this game seem so enticing? You think the public is wrong all the time? This could be possibly the 2 worst defenses going at each other. What makes you think they will both bring intensity and play their best all year? So they haven't any other game and will decide to tonight? Eli should have his best passing game all year. Nicks should actually score at least 1 td tonight. Jacobs is out so they wont be able to run effectively.There is only one win between both of them and most of their games by both teams have gone over. Only reasoning for going under is Freeman has only one td throw all year...Pls persuade me NOT to bet on the over
        Comment
        • JabooFootball
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 10-09-13
          • 758

          #5
          the over was the play at 47.5... id probably still jump on it up to 49 tbh i think the winner of this game scores in the 30s and loser in the 20s. Hell I might jump on 1q and 1h overs as well.
          Comment
          • Okst.BIGPLAYS
            SBR High Roller
            • 10-03-10
            • 212

            #6
            Originally posted by CashItIn
            I've noticed people always post about seeing the public pound a play so they fade, but how does the under on this game seem so enticing? You think the public is wrong all the time? This could be possibly the 2 worst defenses going at each other. What makes you think they will both bring intensity and play their best all year? So they haven't any other game and will decide to tonight? Eli should have his best passing game all year. Nicks should actually score at least 1 td tonight. Jacobs is out so they wont be able to run effectively.There is only one win between both of them and most of their games by both teams have gone over. Only reasoning for going under is Freeman has only one td throw all year...Pls persuade me NOT to bet on the over
            So far in the pick the score thread (only available to pros) around 70% are picking the score to be an under ????
            Comment
            • Okst.BIGPLAYS
              SBR High Roller
              • 10-03-10
              • 212

              #7
              Check that 85% so far
              Comment
              • CashItIn
                SBR Sharp
                • 09-05-09
                • 462

                #8
                sbr pros you mean okst? They are all expert analyzers? I haven't been on this forum in a long time so I'm not really sure.
                Comment
                • stevenash
                  Moderator
                  • 01-17-11
                  • 65730

                  #9
                  On it myself.
                  Josh can't put up 20 plus points, and Eli is trash this year.
                  Comment
                  • Okst.BIGPLAYS
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 10-03-10
                    • 212

                    #10
                    Originally posted by CashItIn
                    sbr pros you mean okst? They are all expert analyzers? I haven't been on this forum in a long time so I'm not really sure.
                    Yes sir....not sayin tail or fade ...but most of the sbr pros are here to make money and usually good incite...
                    Comment
                    • ashulga
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 07-16-12
                      • 247

                      #11
                      Giants season high is 23 pts and that includes 32 worst defense in Philadelphia and 30 th in denver and 29th in Dallas not to mention they were gun slinging in both of those trying to come back from big defesits. So unless minnesota all of the sudden with qb that had 47 percent completion percentage in a new offense puts up 30 plus points I dont see how it goes over.
                      Comment
                      • DeLorean
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 09-27-13
                        • 208

                        #12
                        This total is right where it should be...little to no value in O/U on this one. Very small edge to betting the over but not enough.

                        Only hope you have is that it looks like a pretty FG heavy matchup

                        Minn +4 is the value
                        Comment
                        • DeLorean
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 09-27-13
                          • 208

                          #13
                          Peterson over 100.5 rush yds is nice too
                          Comment
                          • ashulga
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 07-16-12
                            • 247

                            #14
                            Both pass rushes will come to play on MNF. Too much talent not to step up on MNF
                            Comment
                            • stevenash
                              Moderator
                              • 01-17-11
                              • 65730

                              #15
                              Originally posted by DeLorean
                              This total is right where it should be...little to no value in O/U on this one. Very small edge to betting the over but not enough.

                              Only hope you have is that it looks like a pretty FG heavy matchup

                              Minn +4 is the value
                              Disagree, the total s/be around 44, but that's just me.

                              Yeah, as a lifelong NYG fan, I can see Minny winning outright.
                              Comment
                              • stevenash
                                Moderator
                                • 01-17-11
                                • 65730

                                #16
                                Originally posted by DeLorean
                                Peterson over 100.5 rush yds is nice too
                                Ya, all AP all the time tonight.
                                Josh should put the rock in AP's gut 30x
                                Comment
                                • JabooFootball
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 10-09-13
                                  • 758

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by ashulga
                                  Giants season high is 23 pts and that includes 32 worst defense in Philadelphia and 30 th in denver and 29th in Dallas not to mention they were gun slinging in both of those trying to come back from big defesits. So unless minnesota all of the sudden with qb that had 47 percent completion percentage in a new offense puts up 30 plus points I dont see how it goes over.
                                  Even with pitiful scoring the giants are 4-2 over this year and the Vikings are 4-0-1 over.
                                  Comment
                                  • ashulga
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 07-16-12
                                    • 247

                                    #18
                                    Addition of jon beason for giants should help too. He led team in tackles last game with 12 I believe in his first game as a giant
                                    Comment
                                    • ashulga
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 07-16-12
                                      • 247

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by JabooFootball
                                      Even with pitiful scoring the giants are 4-2 over this year and the Vikings are 4-0-1 over.
                                      thats why giants were winless and I think they squeek their first win tonight and to do that they cant have minn scoring 30
                                      Comment
                                      • JabooFootball
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 10-09-13
                                        • 758

                                        #20
                                        These teams both have more (healthy) weapons on offense than defense. Freeman is the only ? mark I have on the over. A lot of people forget how proficient he was in the pre schiano games (9 come from behind victories). Id also say a pick 6 on either side is slightly better than likely so all of that factors into my backing the over. Grabbed it at 47.5
                                        Comment
                                        • shookid
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 11-17-10
                                          • 201

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by ashulga
                                          Both pass rushes will come to play on MNF. Too much talent not to step up on MNF
                                          this is ridiculous. but they have enough talent for both teams to be ranked in the 20's in opponents yards allowed on ground and air and have a combined record of 1-10? giants strength is the minn weakness. minn secondary is terrible and there is no way the giants will commit themselves to a run game that does not exist. on the other hand minn is a great running team but the giants give up only 3.52 yards a carry. eventually freeman is going to air it out and exploit the giants weakness which is the pass d. both secondaries suck, both qbs are capable, and its hard to imagine both not getting 21+.
                                          Comment
                                          • DeLorean
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 09-27-13
                                            • 208

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by stevenash
                                            Disagree, the total s/be around 44, but that's just me.

                                            Yeah, as a lifelong NYG fan, I can see Minny winning outright.
                                            I'm interested to see how you got the 44 total. Did your formula give you a lean towards either team? I'm entirely serious btw, I like seeing how others do their capping.

                                            My #'s came out 26-23 for Minn with their FG kicker getting 10pts which is where I guess my diff comes from. So Minn +4 offers nice value to my #'s. Since my total is 49 I don't have any value with the U/O.

                                            I do have freeman with 255 pass yds so that's a nice edge over the 240 prop bet.

                                            And Minn with 155 rush yds, most of which will come from AP so I like the value on the over 100.5yds for him.

                                            You on any prop bets?
                                            Comment
                                            • stevenash
                                              Moderator
                                              • 01-17-11
                                              • 65730

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by DeLorean
                                              I'm interested to see how you got the 44 total. Did your formula give you a lean towards either team? I'm entirely serious btw, I like seeing how others do their capping.

                                              My #'s came out 26-23 for Minn with their FG kicker getting 10pts which is where I guess my diff comes from. So Minn +4 offers nice value to my #'s. Since my total is 49 I don't have any value with the U/O.


                                              I do have freeman with 255 pass yds so that's a nice edge over the 240 prop bet.

                                              And Minn with 155 rush yds, most of which will come from AP so I like the value on the over 100.5yds for him.

                                              You on any prop bets?

                                              I got 24-20 Minny.
                                              Peterson chews up plenty of clock with 32 rushes or so.
                                              Freeman won't go to the air often. That how I capped it.

                                              203904793-1 10/21/13 7:53pm $20.00 $20.00 Pending 10/21/13 8:35pm Props Football 4514 No score in first 6:30 +100* vs Score in first 6:30
                                              Totals: $20.00 $20.00
                                              Comment
                                              • stevenash
                                                Moderator
                                                • 01-17-11
                                                • 65730

                                                #24
                                                Gotta love those 10 minute drives that result in three points.
                                                Under's best friend.
                                                Comment
                                                • Okst.BIGPLAYS
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 10-03-10
                                                  • 212

                                                  #25
                                                  Already on it Nash, bit early, but looking good as far as game plan goes....

                                                  Comment
                                                  • ashulga
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 07-16-12
                                                    • 247

                                                    #26
                                                    Defensive game, take away return and its only 10 pts on offense.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Fred The Hammer
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 08-13-13
                                                      • 11597

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by ashulga
                                                      Defensive game, take away return and its only 10 pts on offense.
                                                      Eli left atleast 100 yds and 1 td pass on the field but Minn should have nothing so it looks good. I thought Minn might let Freeman throw it downfield and Eli would get it together at some point but doesn't look like it. Need some luck to get to 41 on a tease
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ashulga
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 07-16-12
                                                        • 247

                                                        #28
                                                        Both teams keep throwing 5 yard dump passes. Thats exactly what I expected, giants want to build eli s confidence and freeman just sucks with his 47 percent completion percentage.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • shookid
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 11-17-10
                                                          • 201

                                                          #29
                                                          the game calling is terrible. shotgun draws with peyton hillis? specific pass plays to peyton hillis? te screens? wow
                                                          Comment
                                                          • DeLorean
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 09-27-13
                                                            • 208

                                                            #30
                                                            One of the worst all around football games in recent memory
                                                            Comment
                                                            • ashulga
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 07-16-12
                                                              • 247

                                                              #31
                                                              Both teams playing it safe but that was expected. Gun slinging hasn't worked for either team this year
                                                              Comment
                                                              • stevenash
                                                                Moderator
                                                                • 01-17-11
                                                                • 65730

                                                                #32
                                                                Made a bundle tonight
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ashulga
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 07-16-12
                                                                  • 247

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by stevenash
                                                                  Made a bundle tonight
                                                                  Congrats. Me too
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Okst.BIGPLAYS
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 10-03-10
                                                                    • 212

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by ashulga
                                                                    Congrats. Me too
                                                                    Good win back to the grind!!!!!!!!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Pick'nParlays
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 02-22-08
                                                                      • 3134

                                                                      #35
                                                                      minny sucks people.

                                                                      no brainer. if you took Minnesota it maybe time to find another vice.
                                                                      Comment
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