Tommy Karate NFL 2013/2014
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No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#351Comment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#353this was really really fukked up.
thank that pos bronco homer that strolls around Players Talk....kids like him are just bad karmaComment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#354
Playoffs 2014: 11-5 (+10.1u)
T3: 1-1
========================
YTD: 180-176 (+53.8u)
T1: 17-9
T2: 4-3
T3: 8-6
T4: 0-1
T5: 2-1
T6: 9-3
T7: 11-17
T8: 11-7
T9: 1-2
T10: 17-6
T12: 8-8Comment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#355brady catching 5/6 pts vs manning....interesting....Comment -
juanitodelfuegoSBR Wise Guy
- 09-12-09
- 514
#356Looks like it back to work. Illinois scores 15 in the first half WTF!!!!!Tonight I am running a 4.5 pt teaser on the IL @ NW game.
I have IL -1 / over 121.5 for 3x.
I aggregated all my posts into a season Thread in the NCAA bball section. You can see what I have been up to over there. 7 yrs of math/court/travel might be starting to work.Comment -
StackinGreenSBR Posting Legend
- 10-09-10
- 12140
#357Tommy, Decker trips over feet to go up 21-0. Welker drop after they get greedy, stays at 14 ... still, up 17 with 8:00 to go, SD gets onsides, unreal --- had to be 80+% they win by 17 or moreComment -
StackinGreenSBR Posting Legend
- 10-09-10
- 12140
#359Sounds like you're on Denver?Comment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
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StackinGreenSBR Posting Legend
- 10-09-10
- 12140
#362Waiting to see where the lines move ... should be away from your picks. Patriots +7.5 awesome, it'll probably be on 7 at the end of the game. We'll see what happens. SF is riding high but they have to buck that tough road site, crowd, and now 5 of 6 on the road. Kaep is in for it but I wouldn't be surprised either way, just like Brady winning wouldn't be a surprise. At all.Comment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#363man, didnt sleep all that well last night....felt like a little kid waiting for XMas morning.
what a day of football - couldnt ask for 2 better matchups. then tonight i head to NJ for the Wolf of Wall St.Comment -
bigjah15SBR MVP
- 12-20-10
- 1437
#364Wolf of Wall Street is great movie . It's long but goodComment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
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Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#366Final Score Predictions:
Broncos - 27
Patriots - 23
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49ers - 20
Hawks - 16Comment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#367(3u) Under Broncos/Patriots 57.5 (T3)Comment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#368(10u) Broncos -4/-125
There isnt a sport i have more confidence in my abilities then the NFL Playoffs, but apparently (per Sports Insights) Billy Walters has a huge play on Denver -4.5. That is the 1 person on the planet i would have no issues tailing. However, as you can see above i actually do think Denver wins a close game. Pats werent a huge play for me at 3u, and im obviously in a position to middle this game (as i did SF/Atl last year when i made the same gameday switch). Fact that this move paid dividends big time for me last year and i wont be all that pissed should Den not cover.
As for Denvers chances, now seeing that the weather will be in the 60's had me liking the Pats even less. Perfect weather for Manning and although they lost their best DB, the Pats dont really have that Keenan Allen type wideout to make them pay. Thompkins is out today. Also, the h2h meetings between Brady and Manning in the playoffs have all been won by the home team.
I also dont think the public goes 2-0 today, and i had thought more Den tickets would come in today but its still 60%+ on both road teams. I still feel strong on SF and feel thats the game the public hits.Comment -
StackinGreenSBR Posting Legend
- 10-09-10
- 12140
#369All day, Denver 10 unitsComment -
StackinGreenSBR Posting Legend
- 10-09-10
- 12140
#370(10u) Broncos -4/-125
There isnt a sport i have more confidence in my abilities then the NFL Playoffs, but apparently (per Sports Insights) Billy Walters has a huge play on Denver -4.5. That is the 1 person on the planet i would have no issues tailing. However, as you can see above i actually do think Denver wins a close game. Pats werent a huge play for me at 3u, and im obviously in a position to middle this game (as i did SF/Atl last year when i made the same gameday switch). Fact that this move paid dividends big time for me last year and i wont be all that pissed should Den not cover.
As for Denvers chances, now seeing that the weather will be in the 60's had me liking the Pats even less. Perfect weather for Manning and although they lost their best DB, the Pats dont really have that Keenan Allen type wideout to make them pay. Thompkins is out today. Also, the h2h meetings between Brady and Manning in the playoffs have all been won by the home team.
I also dont think the public goes 2-0 today, and i had thought more Den tickets would come in today but its still 60%+ on both road teams. I still feel strong on SF and feel thats the game the public hits.
The key to this game is New England on the road, and NE not having enough to stop those weapons. One Aqib Talib, on the road, won't be enough.
Denver 34-23Comment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#371
what does NE on the road mean? The Pats havent been blown out all year on the road.Comment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#373oh please land on 6Comment -
StackinGreenSBR Posting Legend
- 10-09-10
- 12140
#374You find all types of people on this board, my man. Get this, I told a guy I'd have a pick for him in NFL, a nice winner. Not only do I post the pick on my thread, I PM him the pick (albeit ~10 minutes before game time) and he PMs me back "Thanks, you expect me to check my PMs less than 10 minutes before a game? ... no thanks, you can go your own way
Unreal, hahaComment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#375You find all types of people on this board, my man. Get this, I told a guy I'd have a pick for him in NFL, a nice winner. Not only do I post the pick on my thread, I PM him the pick (albeit ~10 minutes before game time) and he PMs me back "Thanks, you expect me to check my PMs less than 10 minutes before a game? ... no thanks, you can go your own way
Unreal, hahaComment -
StackinGreenSBR Posting Legend
- 10-09-10
- 12140
#376Duly noted. Good luck, this'll be closeComment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#377you really have to be fukking kidding me now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
how the fuk does sea have the ball?
bunch of fukin horseshit again going against SF.................Comment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#378well, thats it for kaeprnick.....what a fukin bum. pos will never get a ring now.Comment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#379
Playoffs 2014: 14-6 (+15u)
==========================
YTD: 183-177 (+52.7u)
T1: 17-9
T2: 4-3
T3: 9-6
T4: 0-1
T5: 2-1
T6: 9-3
T7: 11-17
T8: 11-7
T9: 1-2
T10: 17-6
T12: 8-8
*Added the 6u in losses from my 3 futures bets to the YTD total.Comment -
StackinGreenSBR Posting Legend
- 10-09-10
- 12140
#380Think it gets to -3?Comment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#383Sunday 2/2
I think now is the time to hit the hawks, as the line should only come back down next week as the weather report gets more accurate. Its almost a guarantee that by 6:30 est, the temperature will be <32 degrees - thats bad news for peyton manning and there really is no other way to spin it. Mannings career QB rating drops from 97% to 84% when <40. When <30 degrees, it drops even further to 77%. 0-3 career playoff record for manning when <40 degrees. Yes those games were on the road, but this game is also on the road (neutral site may help manning somewhat).
I looked into the road games for each team, and im more impressed with how seattle performed on the road. Their worst performance was at Luck, which also produced bad results for the Broncos defense. Many Denver backers claim that their defense is peaking at the right time - They gave up 13 and 14 points to the Texans and Raiders to close out the regular season. They played well at home to SD and NE, but now pack their bags for NJ without their 12th man helping the cause. The loss of Chris Harris wasnt exposed by the Pats last week without any downfield playmakers, but i feel that the hawks offense will be more dangerous with harvin back at 100% and having 3 weeks to rest/prepare for this game. Tate is a burner on the outside and this could spell trouble for Denvers weakness.
I've always stood by backing great defenses over great offenses and thats what im doing here. As long as Wilson isnt asked to win this game, the Hawks have a very good chance of hosting the Lombardi trophy. Pound Lynch, roll Wilson out, and let him create passing plays with his legs are the keys to success for this offense. Yes, Denver has a lot of star studded names in their lineup, but i'll take the much more physical team any day of the week, especially in a cold temperature game which this is all but guaranteed being. Throw in potentially heavy wind, rain, snow etc and this one could turn one sided.
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(10u) Seahawks +3.5/-150
(4u) Under Broncos/Hawks 47.5
(1u) Percy Harvin MVP (25/1)
===================================
Seahawks -23
Broncos -20
Comment -
StackinGreenSBR Posting Legend
- 10-09-10
- 12140
#384Totally agree, you know I've been Seahawks and under for some time. I'm analyzing a bit on my own thread. You'll see some overlap with a few more/different points.
I wish I could buy to 3.5, that's an outstanding play.Comment -
Tommy KarateSBR Posting Legend
- 10-12-13
- 13445
#385Sunday 2/2
I think now is the time to hit the hawks, as the line should only come back down next week as the weather report gets more accurate. Its almost a guarantee that by 6:30 est, the temperature will be <32 degrees - thats bad news for peyton manning and there really is no other way to spin it. Mannings career QB rating drops from 97% to 84% when <40. When <30 degrees, it drops even further to 77%. 0-3 career playoff record for manning when <40 degrees. Yes those games were on the road, but this game is also on the road (neutral site may help manning somewhat).
I looked into the road games for each team, and im more impressed with how seattle performed on the road. Their worst performance was at Luck, which also produced bad results for the Broncos defense. Many Denver backers claim that their defense is peaking at the right time - They gave up 13 and 14 points to the Texans and Raiders to close out the regular season. They played well at home to SD and NE, but now pack their bags for NJ without their 12th man helping the cause. The loss of Chris Harris wasnt exposed by the Pats last week without any downfield playmakers, but i feel that the hawks offense will be more dangerous with harvin back at 100% and having 3 weeks to rest/prepare for this game. Tate is a burner on the outside and this could spell trouble for Denvers weakness.
I've always stood by backing great defenses over great offenses and thats what im doing here. As long as Wilson isnt asked to win this game, the Hawks have a very good chance of hosting the Lombardi trophy. Pound Lynch, roll Wilson out, and let him create passing plays with his legs are the keys to success for this offense. Yes, Denver has a lot of star studded names in their lineup, but i'll take the much more physical team any day of the week, especially in a cold temperature game which this is all but guaranteed being. Throw in potentially heavy wind, rain, snow etc and this one could turn one sided.
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(10u) Seahawks +3.5/-150
(4u) Under Broncos/Hawks 47.5
(1u) Percy Harvin MVP (25/1)
===================================
Seahawks -23
Broncos -20
Seattle has still played solid defense away from home, but they without a doubt have the craziest home field advantage in football. That's not on their side this week, and while they have played good defense away from home, they have yet to face an offense like this one. Not only is Manning playing the best football of his life (ducks dont matter with little wind), but he has the experience in this game already having a ring. One could argue that the Hawks won their SuperBowl last week having beat out a divison rival in a physical game. The Hawks have a bright future ahead of them, and it wont be the end of the world if they lose. If Manning doesnt get his 2nd ring now to tie is brother, he may never have another shot. The weapons he has are great even without him. He makes Moreno, but D. Thomas is in my opinion the best WR in the game. Unreal hands, speed and strength. Decker, Welker and J. Thomas is just an unfair advantage for any defense. I'm also not crazy about all the Sherman/Lynch off field distractions the Seahawks are dealing with.
Much of Manning's struggles in cold weather conditions were when he was playing his home games in a dome years back. Again, these conditions for Sunday are nothing crazy for him to deal with as they were at Pats in late Nov. Obviously if this game lands on Denver by 1 2 or 3, even better.
http://www.weather.com/sports-rec/super-bowl-weather-forecast-snow-cold-wind-new-jersey-20140125
(30u) Broncos -120
=====================
Broncos - 27
Seahawks - 17
PS: Vegas wont shut down if the Broncos win this game....Comment
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