Tommy Karate NFL 2013/2014

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #351
    Originally posted by Tommy Karate
    2 down, 1 left..
    Wow. When did you get them at +1000?
    Comment
    • Tommy Karate
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 10-12-13
      • 13445

      #352
      Originally posted by No coincidences
      Wow. When did you get them at +1000?
      booked it 12/13.....if i recall, seattle, denver, pats and panthers were ahead of them.
      Comment
      • Tommy Karate
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 10-12-13
        • 13445

        #353
        this was really really fukked up.

        thank that pos bronco homer that strolls around Players Talk....kids like him are just bad karma
        Comment
        • Tommy Karate
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-12-13
          • 13445

          #354
          Originally posted by Tommy Karate
          Playoffs Week 1: 6-3 (+.8u)
          T2: 1-0
          T3: 1-0
          T6: 1-0

          T10: 0-2
          =====================

          YTD: 175-174 (+44.5u)
          T1: 17-9
          T2: 4-3
          T3: 7-5
          T4: 0-1
          T5: 2-1
          T6: 9-3
          T7: 11-17
          T8: 11-7
          T9: 1-2
          T10: 17-6
          T12: 8-8
          Playoffs Week 2: 5-2 (+9.3u)
          Playoffs 2014: 11-5 (+10.1u)
          T3: 1-1
          ========================

          YTD: 180-176 (+53.8u)
          T1: 17-9
          T2: 4-3
          T3: 8-6
          T4: 0-1
          T5: 2-1
          T6: 9-3
          T7: 11-17
          T8: 11-7
          T9: 1-2
          T10: 17-6
          T12: 8-8
          Comment
          • Tommy Karate
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 10-12-13
            • 13445

            #355
            brady catching 5/6 pts vs manning....interesting....
            Comment
            • juanitodelfuego
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 09-12-09
              • 514

              #356
              Looks like it back to work. Illinois scores 15 in the first half WTF!!!!!
              Originally posted by juanitodelfuego
              Tonight I am running a 4.5 pt teaser on the IL @ NW game.

              I have IL -1 / over 121.5 for 3x.


              I aggregated all my posts into a season Thread in the NCAA bball section. You can see what I have been up to over there. 7 yrs of math/court/travel might be starting to work.
              Comment
              • StackinGreen
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-09-10
                • 12140

                #357
                Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                this was really really fukked up.

                thank that pos bronco homer that strolls around Players Talk....kids like him are just bad karma
                Tommy, Decker trips over feet to go up 21-0. Welker drop after they get greedy, stays at 14 ... still, up 17 with 8:00 to go, SD gets onsides, unreal --- had to be 80+% they win by 17 or more
                Comment
                • Tommy Karate
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 10-12-13
                  • 13445

                  #358
                  Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                  Sunday 1.19

                  (6u) 49ers +3.5
                  (3u) Under Hawks/49ers 40.5/-130
                  Comment
                  • StackinGreen
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 10-09-10
                    • 12140

                    #359
                    Sounds like you're on Denver?
                    Comment
                    • Tommy Karate
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-12-13
                      • 13445

                      #360
                      Originally posted by StackinGreen
                      Sounds like you're on Denver?
                      undecided.....def under, but not sure on side. likely pats but will have to think some more, confirm weather etc....

                      if it were 20 degrees, i would pound the pats for 20x.....but sounds like it will be above 40
                      Comment
                      • Tommy Karate
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 10-12-13
                        • 13445

                        #361
                        Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                        Sunday 1.19

                        (6u) 49ers +3.5
                        Originally posted by Tommy Karate

                        (3u) Under Hawks/49ers 40.5/-130
                        (3u) Patriots +7.5/-150
                        Comment
                        • StackinGreen
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 10-09-10
                          • 12140

                          #362
                          Waiting to see where the lines move ... should be away from your picks. Patriots +7.5 awesome, it'll probably be on 7 at the end of the game. We'll see what happens. SF is riding high but they have to buck that tough road site, crowd, and now 5 of 6 on the road. Kaep is in for it but I wouldn't be surprised either way, just like Brady winning wouldn't be a surprise. At all.
                          Comment
                          • Tommy Karate
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 10-12-13
                            • 13445

                            #363
                            man, didnt sleep all that well last night....felt like a little kid waiting for XMas morning.

                            what a day of football - couldnt ask for 2 better matchups. then tonight i head to NJ for the Wolf of Wall St.
                            Comment
                            • bigjah15
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-20-10
                              • 1437

                              #364
                              Wolf of Wall Street is great movie . It's long but good
                              Comment
                              • Tommy Karate
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 10-12-13
                                • 13445

                                #365
                                Originally posted by bigjah15
                                Wolf of Wall Street is great movie . It's long but good
                                i know.....the only 2 movie times were 6 and 10:15 and i obviously had to do the 10:15. I'm at one of those Dine In Theaters so will be sure to pound the coffees...
                                Comment
                                • Tommy Karate
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 10-12-13
                                  • 13445

                                  #366
                                  Final Score Predictions:

                                  Broncos - 27
                                  Patriots - 23
                                  ---------------------
                                  49ers - 20
                                  Hawks - 16
                                  Comment
                                  • Tommy Karate
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 10-12-13
                                    • 13445

                                    #367
                                    (3u) Under Broncos/Patriots 57.5 (T3)
                                    Comment
                                    • Tommy Karate
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 10-12-13
                                      • 13445

                                      #368
                                      Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                                      Sunday 1.19

                                      (6u) 49ers +3.5
                                      Originally posted by Tommy Karate

                                      (3u) Under Hawks/49ers 40.5/-130
                                      Originally posted by Tommy Karate

                                      (3u) Patriots +7.5/-150
                                      Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                                      (3u) Under Broncos/Patriots 57.5 (T3)
                                      (10u) Broncos -4/-125

                                      There isnt a sport i have more confidence in my abilities then the NFL Playoffs, but apparently (per Sports Insights) Billy Walters has a huge play on Denver -4.5. That is the 1 person on the planet i would have no issues tailing. However, as you can see above i actually do think Denver wins a close game. Pats werent a huge play for me at 3u, and im obviously in a position to middle this game (as i did SF/Atl last year when i made the same gameday switch). Fact that this move paid dividends big time for me last year and i wont be all that pissed should Den not cover.

                                      As for Denvers chances, now seeing that the weather will be in the 60's had me liking the Pats even less. Perfect weather for Manning and although they lost their best DB, the Pats dont really have that Keenan Allen type wideout to make them pay. Thompkins is out today. Also, the h2h meetings between Brady and Manning in the playoffs have all been won by the home team.

                                      I also dont think the public goes 2-0 today, and i had thought more Den tickets would come in today but its still 60%+ on both road teams. I still feel strong on SF and feel thats the game the public hits.
                                      Comment
                                      • StackinGreen
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 10-09-10
                                        • 12140

                                        #369
                                        All day, Denver 10 units
                                        Comment
                                        • StackinGreen
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 10-09-10
                                          • 12140

                                          #370
                                          Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                                          (10u) Broncos -4/-125

                                          There isnt a sport i have more confidence in my abilities then the NFL Playoffs, but apparently (per Sports Insights) Billy Walters has a huge play on Denver -4.5. That is the 1 person on the planet i would have no issues tailing. However, as you can see above i actually do think Denver wins a close game. Pats werent a huge play for me at 3u, and im obviously in a position to middle this game (as i did SF/Atl last year when i made the same gameday switch). Fact that this move paid dividends big time for me last year and i wont be all that pissed should Den not cover.

                                          As for Denvers chances, now seeing that the weather will be in the 60's had me liking the Pats even less. Perfect weather for Manning and although they lost their best DB, the Pats dont really have that Keenan Allen type wideout to make them pay. Thompkins is out today. Also, the h2h meetings between Brady and Manning in the playoffs have all been won by the home team.

                                          I also dont think the public goes 2-0 today, and i had thought more Den tickets would come in today but its still 60%+ on both road teams. I still feel strong on SF and feel thats the game the public hits.
                                          I'm not telling you who to believe, but why would Sports Insights have special knowledge of Walters?

                                          The key to this game is New England on the road, and NE not having enough to stop those weapons. One Aqib Talib, on the road, won't be enough.

                                          Denver 34-23
                                          Comment
                                          • Tommy Karate
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 10-12-13
                                            • 13445

                                            #371
                                            Originally posted by StackinGreen
                                            I'm not telling you who to believe, but why would Sports Insights have special knowledge of Walters?

                                            The key to this game is New England on the road, and NE not having enough to stop those weapons. One Aqib Talib, on the road, won't be enough.

                                            Denver 34-23
                                            no idea....

                                            what does NE on the road mean? The Pats havent been blown out all year on the road.
                                            Comment
                                            • Tommy Karate
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 10-12-13
                                              • 13445

                                              #372
                                              The Las Vegas Review-Journal is Nevada's most trusted source for local news, Las Vegas sports, business news, gaming news, entertainment news and more.


                                              here is the walters info...
                                              Comment
                                              • Tommy Karate
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 10-12-13
                                                • 13445

                                                #373
                                                oh please land on 6
                                                Comment
                                                • StackinGreen
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 10-09-10
                                                  • 12140

                                                  #374
                                                  You find all types of people on this board, my man. Get this, I told a guy I'd have a pick for him in NFL, a nice winner. Not only do I post the pick on my thread, I PM him the pick (albeit ~10 minutes before game time) and he PMs me back "Thanks, you expect me to check my PMs less than 10 minutes before a game? ... no thanks, you can go your own way

                                                  Unreal, haha
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Tommy Karate
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 10-12-13
                                                    • 13445

                                                    #375
                                                    Originally posted by StackinGreen
                                                    You find all types of people on this board, my man. Get this, I told a guy I'd have a pick for him in NFL, a nice winner. Not only do I post the pick on my thread, I PM him the pick (albeit ~10 minutes before game time) and he PMs me back "Thanks, you expect me to check my PMs less than 10 minutes before a game? ... no thanks, you can go your own way

                                                    Unreal, haha
                                                    dont get into that shit....posting your plays in public is enough of a gift.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • StackinGreen
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 10-09-10
                                                      • 12140

                                                      #376
                                                      Duly noted. Good luck, this'll be close
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Tommy Karate
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 10-12-13
                                                        • 13445

                                                        #377
                                                        you really have to be fukking kidding me now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                                                        how the fuk does sea have the ball?

                                                        bunch of fukin horseshit again going against SF.................
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Tommy Karate
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 10-12-13
                                                          • 13445

                                                          #378
                                                          well, thats it for kaeprnick.....what a fukin bum. pos will never get a ring now.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Tommy Karate
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 10-12-13
                                                            • 13445

                                                            #379
                                                            Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                                                            Playoffs Week 2: 5-2 (+9.3u)
                                                            Playoffs 2014: 11-5 (+10.1u)
                                                            T3: 1-1
                                                            ========================

                                                            YTD: 180-176 (+53.8u)
                                                            T1: 17-9
                                                            T2: 4-3
                                                            T3: 8-6
                                                            T4: 0-1
                                                            T5: 2-1
                                                            T6: 9-3
                                                            T7: 11-17
                                                            T8: 11-7
                                                            T9: 1-2
                                                            T10: 17-6
                                                            T12: 8-8
                                                            Playoffs Week 3: 3-1 (+4.9u)
                                                            Playoffs 2014: 14-6 (+15u)
                                                            ==========================

                                                            YTD: 183-177 (+52.7u)
                                                            T1: 17-9
                                                            T2: 4-3
                                                            T3: 9-6
                                                            T4: 0-1
                                                            T5: 2-1
                                                            T6: 9-3
                                                            T7: 11-17
                                                            T8: 11-7
                                                            T9: 1-2
                                                            T10: 17-6
                                                            T12: 8-8

                                                            *Added the 6u in losses from my 3 futures bets to the YTD total.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • StackinGreen
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 10-09-10
                                                              • 12140

                                                              #380
                                                              Think it gets to -3?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Tommy Karate
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 10-12-13
                                                                • 13445

                                                                #381
                                                                Originally posted by StackinGreen
                                                                Think it gets to -3?
                                                                i can get 3 now with one of my books...

                                                                guess you like the hawks?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • StackinGreen
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 10-09-10
                                                                  • 12140

                                                                  #382
                                                                  Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                                                                  i can get 3 now with one of my books...

                                                                  guess you like the hawks?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Tommy Karate
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 10-12-13
                                                                    • 13445

                                                                    #383
                                                                    Sunday 2/2

                                                                    I think now is the time to hit the hawks, as the line should only come back down next week as the weather report gets more accurate. Its almost a guarantee that by 6:30 est, the temperature will be <32 degrees - thats bad news for peyton manning and there really is no other way to spin it. Mannings career QB rating drops from 97% to 84% when <40. When <30 degrees, it drops even further to 77%. 0-3 career playoff record for manning when <40 degrees. Yes those games were on the road, but this game is also on the road (neutral site may help manning somewhat).

                                                                    I looked into the road games for each team, and im more impressed with how seattle performed on the road. Their worst performance was at Luck, which also produced bad results for the Broncos defense. Many Denver backers claim that their defense is peaking at the right time - They gave up 13 and 14 points to the Texans and Raiders to close out the regular season. They played well at home to SD and NE, but now pack their bags for NJ without their 12th man helping the cause. The loss of Chris Harris wasnt exposed by the Pats last week without any downfield playmakers, but i feel that the hawks offense will be more dangerous with harvin back at 100% and having 3 weeks to rest/prepare for this game. Tate is a burner on the outside and this could spell trouble for Denvers weakness.

                                                                    I've always stood by backing great defenses over great offenses and thats what im doing here. As long as Wilson isnt asked to win this game, the Hawks have a very good chance of hosting the Lombardi trophy. Pound Lynch, roll Wilson out, and let him create passing plays with his legs are the keys to success for this offense. Yes, Denver has a lot of star studded names in their lineup, but i'll take the much more physical team any day of the week, especially in a cold temperature game which this is all but guaranteed being. Throw in potentially heavy wind, rain, snow etc and this one could turn one sided.
                                                                    ===================================

                                                                    (10u) Seahawks +3.5/-150
                                                                    (4u) Under Broncos/Hawks 47.5
                                                                    (1u) Percy Harvin MVP (25/1)
                                                                    ===================================
                                                                    Seahawks -23
                                                                    Broncos -20

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • StackinGreen
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 10-09-10
                                                                      • 12140

                                                                      #384
                                                                      Totally agree, you know I've been Seahawks and under for some time. I'm analyzing a bit on my own thread. You'll see some overlap with a few more/different points.

                                                                      I wish I could buy to 3.5, that's an outstanding play.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Tommy Karate
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 10-12-13
                                                                        • 13445

                                                                        #385
                                                                        Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                                                                        Sunday 2/2

                                                                        I think now is the time to hit the hawks, as the line should only come back down next week as the weather report gets more accurate. Its almost a guarantee that by 6:30 est, the temperature will be <32 degrees - thats bad news for peyton manning and there really is no other way to spin it. Mannings career QB rating drops from 97% to 84% when <40. When <30 degrees, it drops even further to 77%. 0-3 career playoff record for manning when <40 degrees. Yes those games were on the road, but this game is also on the road (neutral site may help manning somewhat).

                                                                        I looked into the road games for each team, and im more impressed with how seattle performed on the road. Their worst performance was at Luck, which also produced bad results for the Broncos defense. Many Denver backers claim that their defense is peaking at the right time - They gave up 13 and 14 points to the Texans and Raiders to close out the regular season. They played well at home to SD and NE, but now pack their bags for NJ without their 12th man helping the cause. The loss of Chris Harris wasnt exposed by the Pats last week without any downfield playmakers, but i feel that the hawks offense will be more dangerous with harvin back at 100% and having 3 weeks to rest/prepare for this game. Tate is a burner on the outside and this could spell trouble for Denvers weakness.

                                                                        I've always stood by backing great defenses over great offenses and thats what im doing here. As long as Wilson isnt asked to win this game, the Hawks have a very good chance of hosting the Lombardi trophy. Pound Lynch, roll Wilson out, and let him create passing plays with his legs are the keys to success for this offense. Yes, Denver has a lot of star studded names in their lineup, but i'll take the much more physical team any day of the week, especially in a cold temperature game which this is all but guaranteed being. Throw in potentially heavy wind, rain, snow etc and this one could turn one sided.
                                                                        ===================================

                                                                        (10u) Seahawks +3.5/-150
                                                                        (4u) Under Broncos/Hawks 47.5
                                                                        (1u) Percy Harvin MVP (25/1)
                                                                        ===================================
                                                                        Seahawks -23
                                                                        Broncos -20

                                                                        Sitting poolside at the Atlantis here in the Bahamas, I had an epiphany. By myself with my own thoughts (fiance hates me, but i extended my business trip a few days after a flight delay), i came to the realization that this game is all about the QB's. The below weather report played a huge role as well in my decision to make the switch. I cannot live with myself if Denver beats a 2nd year young/inexperienced QB. I always back the traditional pocket passers in this game, and i'm not switching this season. The NFL has changed - Overs had to hit at around a 57-60% rate this season, and there is no better offense in the league then the Broncos.

                                                                        Seattle has still played solid defense away from home, but they without a doubt have the craziest home field advantage in football. That's not on their side this week, and while they have played good defense away from home, they have yet to face an offense like this one. Not only is Manning playing the best football of his life (ducks dont matter with little wind), but he has the experience in this game already having a ring. One could argue that the Hawks won their SuperBowl last week having beat out a divison rival in a physical game. The Hawks have a bright future ahead of them, and it wont be the end of the world if they lose. If Manning doesnt get his 2nd ring now to tie is brother, he may never have another shot. The weapons he has are great even without him. He makes Moreno, but D. Thomas is in my opinion the best WR in the game. Unreal hands, speed and strength. Decker, Welker and J. Thomas is just an unfair advantage for any defense. I'm also not crazy about all the Sherman/Lynch off field distractions the Seahawks are dealing with.
                                                                        Much of Manning's struggles in cold weather conditions were when he was playing his home games in a dome years back. Again, these conditions for Sunday are nothing crazy for him to deal with as they were at Pats in late Nov. Obviously if this game lands on Denver by 1 2 or 3, even better.

                                                                        http://www.weather.com/sports-rec/super-bowl-weather-forecast-snow-cold-wind-new-jersey-20140125


                                                                        (30u) Broncos -120
                                                                        =====================
                                                                        Broncos - 27
                                                                        Seahawks - 17

                                                                        PS: Vegas wont shut down if the Broncos win this game....
                                                                        Comment
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